The results from the twin referendums have left the Coalition with a hard truth to acknowledge, following significant losses. The subsequent in-party autopsy has been blunt, as key individuals from a range of parties likened the outcomes to punitive blows from voters aimed at diverse parts of their body.
An informant from Fianna Fáil disclosed that there was genuinely no compelling need for the referendum. The grievances associated with the exercise are myriad, including the point in the electoral cycle at which the vote was arranged, the forced passage of the enabling legislation, the brief period of campaigning, the occurrence of the vote on International Women’s Day, and lacklustre or absent ministerial efforts in campaigning.
Yesterday, the Government struggled to grasp the ramifications of the outcomes. While the results might not necessarily threaten the existence of the Coalition directly, predicting the implications on local and European elections, or the subsequent general election, is complex.
The fact that there’s no absolute correlation between the losses in referendum and government’s performance in coming elections is well-established, but the particularly significant loss has reverberated through the Coalition. The concern isn’t solely about the immediate political implications of the results. Rather, it’s about the apparent manifestation of an electorate’s discontentment with the Government and a political system that appears self-serving.
Verona Murphy, an Independent TD for Wexford, who celebrated on Saturday in Dublin Castle with notable campaigners against the outcome, attributed the loss to a broader dissatisfaction with party politics. She was quoted as saying that voters are disappointed with political parties that prioritise self-interest over public service.
A Fianna Fáil Minister commented on the unpredictability of the voters evident from the result. He added that the apparent frustration and restlessness among voters could lead to an unpredictable reaction. The fear of such inherent instability in Irish politics is urging some to focus on core issues that resonate with their base. In the wake of the fallout, a source from Fine Gael argued that political priorities should now shift towards taxation, employment and policing.
There exists a rising apprehension regarding potential difficult issues to tackle in future. A well-known source from Fine Gael highlighted the unsettling prospect of speed limit reviews. The stalled hate speech bills in the Seanad, also pose potential dilemmas.
Multiple issues of concern expected in the foreseeable future have been aired by Charlie Flanagan, ex Fine Gael justice minister, to his party associates. Charlie predicts these contentious matters that include topics like euthanasia, abortion reviews, and extended pub opening timings could incite a public reaction, specifically from Fine Gael voters. Over a recent weekend, Flanagan dispatched a correspondence to Alan Dillon, the chairman of the Fine Gael parliamentary party, asking for an early gathering to deliberate on the referendum consequences.
The arguably ‘seismic’ shock of this situation has bred significant unease about its correlation with local and European election timings. A government spokesperson shared the possibility of managing public dissatisfaction and opposition could prove challenging.
Once hedged bets on executing further referendums beyond the patent court vote slated for June, as stated in the government’s blueprint, now seem to be significantly reduced in the minds of many. Now, comprehensively, the possibility of polls for matters like right to housing and public ownership of water are being dismissed.
Government insiders in favour of waiting till the government’s term concludes before holding a general election believe their stance is solidified with the public growing increasingly alert to any perceived opportunism.
A heightened public cynicism forebodes potential public backlash to an unconventional budget followed by a hastened Finance Bill and a late autumn election, as noted by a Fianna Fáil source.
Affective cohesion within the government is also becoming evident. Criticism is rampant for leaders and ministers believed to not have been fully engaged in the referendum campaign according to the Minister of State for Older People, Mary Butler.
Bearing the weight of a significant setback to the government’s morale and confidence, there is a considerable hurdle of invigorating momentum amid rising uncertainty.