Analysts from the Bank of America (BofA) suggest that Permanent TSB (PTSB) may be able to release around €270 million in costly capital from its balance sheet. This is contingent upon a strategy to persuade regulators to permit a reduction in the assumed risk of its mortgage portfolio. Currently, for every €100 of mortgaged issued by PTSB, they are obligated to maintain capital against a risk weighting of more than 40%.
This heightened risk-weighted asset (RWA) ratio stemmed from the arrears crisis following the financial collapse, during which up to 28% of PTSB’s mortgages became non-performing. This high risk weighting for PTSB does not reflect that of newer mortgages from Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks, which have risk weightings in the 20s, enabling them to issue new business more competitively.
This discrepancy played a role in PTSB’s market share for new mortgages dropping to 15% during the last quarter of the previous year from 23% during the first half. Eamonn Crowley, PTSB’s Chief Executive, said that the bank is collaborating with advisers on a strategy to revamp its internal loan risk model with hopes of gaining some respite from regulators by next year’s end.
BofA Global Research analyst, Alastair Ryan, mentioned that if the risk-weight ratios on the bank’s high-quality home loans were lowered to match that of its larger competitors, approximately €270 million of equity capital, equivalent to a third of PTSB’s current market value, could potentially be “freed up”.
He stated that while PTSB’s mortgage credit quality has significantly improved, just like other Irish banks, the risk weights are still high with PTSB’s being even higher. According to BofA Global Research data, the average risk weights on home loans across the euro zone was below 15% as of September’s end. With 70% of PTSB’s €20.2 billion mortgages issued post the introduction of stricter lending rules nine years ago, Irish banks have thus far endured the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent cost-of-living crises without a surge in defaults.
Mr Ryan has improved his view of PTSB shares, shifting his position from underperformance to neutrality, remarking upon the fact that these stocks currently trade at a 60% markdown compared to their two competitors, based on the tangible net worth of the assets.
PTSB shares showed a mild increase of 1.4% to €1.45 by the midpoint of the trading day in Dublin. Notwithstanding, they have experienced a downturn of 42% in the last year. Meanwhile, the broader Iseq Financial index has seen a growth of 0.5% in the same timeframe.
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