During a brief in Dublin last week, a high-ranking official from Nato shocked European Union (EU) representatives with a projection that Russia’s invasion of the EU was not a matter of possibility, but a certainty of timing. Nato’s Military Committee is overseen by Admiral Rob Bauer of the Netherlands who, whilst on a dual-day Ireland trip, provided the alarming briefing to EU envoys.
Invited officially by Sean Clancy, the head of the Defence Forces, Admiral Bauer had the opportunity to converse with top-ranking Irish military personnel, Jacqui McCrum – the Defence Department’s secretary general, and gave a speech at the Institute for International and European Affairs (IIEA).
In his confidential diplomat meeting, Admiral Bauer’s forecast of Russia’s incursion didn’t gravely surprise the ambassadors hailing from Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. Still, it ruffled some of their Western European colleagues, who are accustomed to scepticism towards these alerts from their Baltic peers.
An anonymous diplomat present noted, “It quite took us aback; this wasn’t the routine somber caution from Estonia or Latvia. This came from a seasoned Dutch military persona.” While not everyone agreed that this prediction will materialise, it was disconcerting that it was even put forth.
In his IIEA address, Admiral Bauer was less sensationalist yet asserted that Ireland’s neutrality could not be safeguarded in the absence of an international order governed by rules. He indicated that Russian aggression towards Ukraine bore enormous stakes, with the future of European Democracy and national sovereignty hanging in the balance.
He also commented on the anti-Nato demonstration convened outside the IIEA venue on North Great George’s Street, declaring it exemplified the military alliance’s need to safeguard democracy. “Be clear, the war’s outcome will shape the world’s future; Russia’s objectives extend considerably beyond Ukraine,” he expressed.
Should Putin succeed in his Ukrainian conquest, there’s a potential he would then set his sights on smaller Baltic nations such as Estonia or Latvia. This is likely under the guise of safeguarding the Russian communities living there. For Ireland, addressing an assault on a fellow EU nation is a crucial consideration.
Within the Treaty on European Union, there exists a unity clause. This agreement dictates that should a member state suffer military hostility within its borders, other member states are bound to provide assistance and aid by any means possible. However, a protocol provided to Ireland prior to the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty exempts the country from the need to extend military aid, but not other forms of help.
Even though Ireland’s military contribution to the EU in the event of an invasion may be insignificant, a refusal to aid another member could radically alter the country’s relationship with the Union. Equally important is the expectation that in the face of Russian threats, the rest of the EU would be obligated to assist us.
Lack of invested resources over the years leaves the waters of the Irish Atlantic as a ‘black hole’ in terms of western defence capabilities. Russian interest has already been shown in the undersea cables connecting Ireland to America, which are crucial to the prosperity of the nation.
Our vulnerability would be greatly laid bare if Putin was to expand his military operations to the exposed western borders of the EU. Although this might seem exaggerated, this scenario is not beyond consideration and might become feasible if Donald Trump retakes the presidency and offers Putin unrestricted liberty to act within Europe.
Despite the strong humanitarian reaction of Ireland to Ukraine’s invasion, there seems to be low public acknowledgement of the significant threat now posed to Europe. In a recent European Parliament session, three of Ireland’s 13 MEPs, Clare Daly, Mick Wallace, and Luke “Ming” Flanagan, all previously known for their anti-NATO stance, voted against a crucial aid package for Ukraine, agreed upon by all 27 EU leaders. Chris MacManus, of Sinn Féin, originally cast a vote against the aid but later retracted, claiming it was a misstep.
The evident awareness that only three Irish MEPs, out of 705 parliament members, stood against assistance to Ukraine is indicative of the urgency for an in-depth and honest conversation regarding Ireland’s position in an escalating global peril scenario. The forthcoming European elections in June could present the apt juncture for such dialogue to transpire.