Looking back upon the infamous invasion of Iraq by the US in 2003, General David Petraeus posed a crucial question: “How will this conclude?” He was, unfortunately, left without a fitting response.
Parallel confusion has long surrounded the manner in which the Coalition will handle its concluding phase. Particularly, there have been questions about how Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will juggle being Government partners while also competing in an election. Present indications, suggest their management has been somewhat lacking.
The budget, as always, has been completed. Yet, notable tensions have surfaced amongst the parties, culminating at the very highest ranks. The culmination of the Government, the last significant task remaining, is now shrouded in this tension.
As of late this week, the party leaders have yet to discuss THE TALK. To date, no one can predict when this conversation will take place. It must happen soon, as legal obligations preceding the call for an election must be met, as we mentioned on Thursday. There are Bills the Government seeks to pass, and then there are those it needs to pass; this includes a social welfare bill, a finance bill, legislation for energy credits, and Dáil votes on supplementary estimates.
Usually, these Bills would be processed through the Dáil in November and December. However, currently, there are preparations in place that aim to expedite them in October. The bills on finance and social welfare are expected to receive a green light from the Cabinet in the coming week. There are plans to quicken the legislative process so the whole can be finalised by month end – to compare, last year it extended till December. Condensing the time between different legislative stages is one strategy being considered.
However, it’s crucial to note that no agreement regarding this approach has been made between the Coalition partners.
Legally, Simon Harris is within his rights to approach the Áras to ask for the Dáil’s dissolution from the President. However, such an action might be deemed as ignoring constitutional guidelines and seen as politically unwise. A strategically beneficial budget would be futile if hastily dismantled. Thus, if Harris is planning a November poll, achieving harmony with his coalition counterparts is a prerequisite. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether he’ll secure their approval.
I’ve maintained for a while that a November election looks increasingly plausible since it seems advantageous for the Government. Yet, government insiders insist this perspective is flawed. I’m informed there aren’t any governmental election-oriented political benefits. The only ones that matter are those relating to individual parties, which might coincide or not.
Could a lavish budget be strategically used for electoral gains?
The Green Party, for instance, doesn’t believe an early election would be beneficial to their cause. They hold various perspectives, including that their stand may not greatly influence the final outcome. Fianna Fáil also hosts a range of opinions. There’s a school of thought within the party suggesting that delaying the election to the following year might be better. They hope that by then, some of Harris’s allure may have faded, potentially leading to a slide in Fine Gael’s popularity poll. Conversations with some Fianna Fáil members revealed candid expressions towards their government companion, regretfully so. The term ‘exposed’ was liberally used.
One thing Fianna Fáil and the Greens adamantly agree on – they refuse to be rushed into an early election to accommodate Fine Gael’s interests.
Observing the inner workings of any coalition leadership exchange can be a complex affair, but recent changes have not gone unnoticed by those immersed in high-order governance. The recent budget meeting on the past Sunday reportedly had an undercurrent of tension. Additionally, prior to this, there was an air of disquiet within the Harris circle when Micheál Martin, in a Fianna Fáil symposium, addressed an anonymous crowd, briefing them about the Coalition’s duty to operate and avoid continuous campaigning. He brought this issue up again during his discourse at the Dublin Chamber of Commerce dinner, admonishing against “political jargon” and the relentless pursuit of positive media exposure.
He commented in somewhat a superior manner that, “Governance” requires more exertion than campaigning.
This assertion was far from well-received in the Taoiseach’s quarters.
The question one of Harris’s allies put forth was, “Why is Micheál so irritable?” A response was provided courtesy of another ally, pointing out Harris’ popularity rating and Fine Gael’s advantage over Fianna Fáil by eight points. Some unsympathetic members of Fine Gael opined that Harris’ youthfulness and dynamism contrasted substantially with Martin’s lack of these qualities.
In my opinion, the three Government parties still stand to benefit from an early election. Surely, they would rather not see a disorganised and drawn-out conclusion to the Government. For the present, their key contenders are in a vulnerable position, currently dealing with the fallout from a former press officer at Stormont having confessed to child sex offences. This won’t always be the case.
The 2024 elections seem to be the only practical reason for the budget. Legislative plans are underway. However, the all-important conversation needs to take place first. How intriguing it would be to be present for that.