Scoring Capabilities
Over the previous 15 months, Derry’s goal tally has significantly increased. While their 2023 NFL season’s average was at 1.0 goal per contest in the second division, this rose to an average of 1.38 per match during the 2023 championship. Under Mickey Harte’s leadership in the 2024 league, the average climbed up to 2.0 goals per match. The team netted a total of 16 goals throughout the league, and intriguingly, half of these were achieved by defenders. In the match against Monaghan, all three goals were the result of defenders’ efforts, enforcing Gavin ‘Horse’ Devlin’s challenge to the backs of Derry to boost their goal rate – and they certainly have risen to the challenge.
Offensive Potential
Both teams showed admirable possession-to-shot efficiency in the league final. Derry fired off 39 shots from 48 team possessions (81%), an impressive rate which, if coupled with better precision, could have led to additional goals. According to Dublin manager Dessie Farrell, Derry’s offensive efficiency is so high that even when an opposing team utilises a defensive overage, Derry can still navigate it skilfully. Hence, a one-to-one defensive strategy may be warranted, resulting in the observed high offensive metrics. In 2023, Derry excelled in systematic, measured attacks. They have elevated their offensive strategy this season, successfully destabilising the opposition’s defences, creating broad opportunities for their own goals as demonstrated against Dublin.
Rising Stars
In 2023, Derry was criticised for lack of depth in their lineup, but it appears that they’ve rectified this during their successful NFL run. Lachlan Murray has emerged in the forward line as a critical addition and a formidable scoring asset. His contributions in the matches against Roscommon and Dublin, particularly in the high-stakes league final, were commendable and noteworthy.
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Donnacha Gilmore has demonstrated significant ball-carrying skills within his defensive role. The way the Derry team are inclusively supporting their younger players was shown when Gilmore lost possession late in the game, leading to extra time against Dublin. Gilmore was immediately bolstered by Conor Glass, providing needed motivation. Gilmore continued to perform outstandingly during the additional time. Defensive prowess was also displayed by Diarmuid Baker. Cormac Murphy, operating offensively, has been displaying maturity well beyond his age, impressing during the challenging final moments of their inaugural victory in Kerry and outperforming all in the match against Tyrone.
Game intelligence and role comprehension
Cormac Murphy has exhibited exceptional game intelligence, particularly in positioning against Tyrone. Understanding of roles and insight is discernible within the team. Ethan Doherty stands out in this domain due to his huge creative contribution to Derry’s offensive play. Doherty assisted in achieving a score of 7-14 during league matches.
Despite bearing John Small’s robust marking during the final, Doherty assisted in scoring 2-3. His strategic insight on the field helped him evade Small’s close watch, dragging him away from the central defensive role. It resulted in stretching Dublin’s defence throughout the match, and the match-up between Doherty and Small became the pivot of this game.
The game-changer
Reviewing goalkeepers’ on-field ball possessions during the latter part of the 2023 championship, Odhrán Lynch and Ethan Rafferty are observed as the most targeted offensively on the pitch. Lynch has become an essential offensive player for Derry, assailing the areas just beyond the D, and shooting himself creating gap opportunities for other players. He has also enhanced his kick-outs, his range towards midfield contests aiding in scoring two goals against Dublin in Croke Park.
The contemplation around Donegal
What does the future hold for Derry’s initial round competition Donegal with the reappointment of manager Jim McGuinness? An array of hypotheses about newly applied strategic tactics have been discussed, but a complete portrayal of his game plan is yet to be revealed, possibly this weekend too, won’t provide the entire scenario.
There has been speculation that he might implement a strategy of vigorous, intense gameplay, resembling the popular tactics currently seen in football. However, this style has appeared sporadically in the league. He demonstrated that a swift utilisation of a foot pass will form an integral part of his offensive game. Shaun Patton, possessing one of the longest kick-outs in football, is a formidable asset to Donegal. The trajectory and speed of these kicks will be strategically implemented at different stages of the game.
Additionally, Donegal boasts a formidable duo of ball winners and prolific scorers in the form of Oisín Gallen and Paddy McBrearty. Despite injuries hindering Gallen’s development in recent seasons, he has showcased his excellence throughout the league and parts of the previous season. His collaboration with the seasoned McBrearty was put on pause after the league’s opening games as McBrearty, a Kilcar man, also sustained an injury. Ensuring that these two receive the ball and capitalise on the mark will be paramount to Donegal’s offensive tactics.
In 2011, Donegal, under the guidance of Jim McGuinness, introduced cutting-edge football techniques in an All-Ireland semi-final match against Dublin that stunned the GAA community. Perhaps McGuinness has another innovative strategy prepared, but it is more likely that we will witness a developing strategy in Celtic Park this weekend. We might need to wait a bit longer before we see the full execution of the manager’s game plan.
The text is presented by Paul O’Brien, a performance analyst working with The Performance Process (twitter.com/NoPlanBGAA).”