Dear Reader,
Concerns have recently been raised by Prof Mike Burke on the topic of support for Irish reunification in Northern Ireland. He pointed to a discrepancy between a polling data mentioned in Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey and my statement in my article “The majority in Northern Ireland may be nationalist, yet a swift reunification remains doubtful” (Thoughts & Analyses, dated August 28th), where I stated that the backing for reunification seems to be dwindling post-2021.
My recent scholarly publication, ‘The Greening of the Others? Tracing the Route of Green and Alliance Party Transfers, from 1997 to 2023’ in the ARINS journal under the aegis of the Royal Irish Academy’s Irish Studies in International Affairs, dives further into this topic.
Within this study, I analysed a five-poll average covering pro-reunification responses based on data acquired from a variety of sources (BT/Kantar, ComRes/ITV, ESRC, ICM, IIS/SMR, Ipsos MORI, Liverpool University, Lord Ashcroft, LucidTalk and NILT) spanning the years 2017 to 2023.
In figure 14 of my publication, the moving averages of these five polls are visually represented by a best-fit curve. This line denotes a high point in pro-reunification sentiment around 2020-2021, followed by a relative dip.
There’s diverse methodology employed in taking these surveys – some are conducted in-person, some over the phone, while others are done digitally. Furthermore, the phrasing in the posed questions differs across pollsters. Given the unknown semantics of a future border poll referendum, it would be imprudent to rely solely on one method of polling data. In a recent Research Update (No.151, 2023), NILT researchers Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher noted a skew in representation: “Alliance appears to have a surplus representation, while voters for Sinn Féin and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have their numbers undersold.”
The fascinating statistics mentioned by Professor Burke in the NILT research indicate that in 2023, merely 29.1% were in favour of unity, whilst a higher 35.3% would decide on reunification “immediately”. My article did not imply that, as Professor Burke puts it, “the drive for Irish unity has lost momentum”. Our current situation can best be described as the peaceful period after the Windsor Framework. An articulate, economically informed, identity observant expectation of a revamped island, which offers citizens the optimism of a promising future, has the potential to stimulate pro-reunification feelings.
Regards,
PHILIP McGUINNESS,
Dundalk,
County Louth.