On Saturday morning, government fears were confirmed as the referendum votes spilled out of the ballot boxes. The conundrum of the Yes-Yes campaign – largely driven by state, opposition, and a multitude of NGOs – barely resonating with the public and often causing exasperation, became shockingly evident.
Many had little faith that the referendum would succeed due to the uninspiring campaign and weak propositions. Nevertheless, the revelation – prominent Labour figure Kevin Humphreys tweeted before 9.30am showing a No vote 12-1 ahead – sent ripples through the political and media sectors: it was destined to fail.
The flow of tallies from across the nation definitively confirmed the rejection of the Government’s proposal – it was an outright and sweeping dismissal.
That afternoon, the Taoiseach attempted to put on a brave face as he acknowledged defeat at Dublin Castle, a tough blow for his administration.
Only Peadar Tóibín’s Aontú dissented amongst all Opposition parties that backed the measures, along with groups such as the National Women’s Council who were largely responsible for driving the campaign. Even with backing from trade unions and the government-funded NGOs, many workers, women, and disabled people offered no support. These groups now have a lot to contemplate.
Over time, the NGOs seemed to argue mostly on their own behalf, which is likely to influence this and future governments’ perception of them.
Inevitably, fingers started pointing at the government for an insipid campaign, unclear wording, a gimmicky polling date, a prolonged and hurriedly executed process – all can be taken as criticisms that hold water.
Multiple reasons can account for the surprising outcome; indeed, they are never in short supply. While there was a deafening roar on Saturday night to point fingers at the Government for how the proposed changes to the constitution came about and were endorsed, overlooking the core significance of recent happenings would be ill-advised.
There were dual blows for the Government as the No votes made a strong showing. When polled about amending the constitutional depiction of the family, voters staunchly denied this choice. Certainly, some might have agreed to a slightly altered amendment, or a more radical expected modification, safeguarding the rights of the handicapped to support. Yet, the significance of this outcome remains.
A reasonably conceivable modification was presented to people, and they dramatically turned it down. This contradicts several recent referenda’s pattern. It doesn’t imply that society as a whole has made a lasting shift to conservatism. It does, however, make it clear that future governments will no longer assume similar changes to the constitution will automatically be accepted.
For instance, adding justifiable social and economic rights to the Constitution, which is a target for some NGOs, now might be viewed in a different light. Future administrations will proceed more cautiously in these areas.
One clear lesson is that one should not carry forward a referendum unless there’s certainty that it’s what the populace truly desires. It was impossible to ignore the feeling that people were being exploited in this scenario. Not a smart move. The Taoiseach’s decision— his own, reportedly— to host the referenda on International Women’s Day was a theatrical act that might have irritated some voters, particularly women inconvenienced by their children’s school closure as it was utilised as a polling place.
This might not signify the end of symbolic politics, but it will undoubtedly cause potential symbolic politicians to think twice in the future. As the outcome revealed, some high-ranking Government members privately pondered over the potential impacts on hate speech laws.
The expression on the Minister’s faces who daringly visited Dublin Castle spoke volumes about the extent of the Government’s mortification. But what does it mean for the political future? That remains to be seen. Governments have previously faced referendum losses yet managed to thrive. On other instances, however, a lost referendum has foreshadowed electoral disaster.
The primary concern for the Coalition is to ascertain that the errors which led to their proposal being widely disregarded by voters and a tepid political campaign are recognised, tackled, and not replicated. However, there is a prevailing lack of assurance that such issues will be addressed. As the period for major political judgements approaches, scepticism regarding the wisdom of the Government’s leaders is now evident to all. Evidently, this Government has been struggling with politics recently and the imminent need for improvement is pressing.
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