In recent years, the Government Buildings in Dublin have strived to facilitate communication with No 10 Downing Street by setting up calls between the leaders of both institutions. However, during Rishi Sunak’s tenure as Prime Minister, these calls didn’t always occur straight away and often got postponed for several days. Owing to Liz Truss’s brief term, no substantial record of such phone conversations was maintained.
During Boris Johnson’s tenure, there were numerous instances where these scheduled communications didn’t happen at all and even when they did, they typically offered little value in resolving the prevalent issues due to their cursory, often dismissive nature.
However, with the rise of Labour leader Keir Starmer to No 10 Downing Street, Dublin is hopeful for the relationship between the two nations to recover from the setbacks experienced over the past decade, which Taoiseach Simon Harris optimistically labels as a “great reset”.
Despite a less-than-stellar response in London, Dublin continues to view Sunak in a generally positive light in comparison to his two predecessors, primarily due to his agreement of the Windsor Framework with the European Union in the previous year.
As for the future, the overview suggests that Harris and Starmer, who has a comprehensive understanding of Ireland and has even shown his passion for it by regularly participating in local football matches, may foster a productive partnership.
In addition, Starmer’s seasoned chief-of-staff, Sue Gray, possesses extensive experience and understanding of Northern Ireland, having taken a break from her civil service job in the 1980s to manage a local pub in County Down. She went on to head the Department of Finance in Northern Ireland for two years and though she attempted, she couldn’t secure the position of head of civil service there. Today, she plays a crucial role in Downing Street.
Furthermore, Pat McFadden, a Scottish-born MP from Wolverhampton celebrated for his contribution to Labour’s campaign has strong ties to Donegal due to his parentage. Other examples of such connections include Sue Gray’s son, Liam Conlon and Macroom-born Morgan McSweeney, the Labour campaign director. Both are among the latest additions to the Labour MPs.
Connections are the backbone of politics, though they are never without strings attached, making national intentions the definitive factor in shaping the relationship between Dublin and London. However, hope glimmers with some in Dublin indicating Labour’s David Lammy’s article on foreign relations, where he emphatically listed the relationship with Ireland, Germany, France and Poland, as pivotal ties for London to strengthen.
Labour is committed to retracting plans to withdraw the United Kingdom from the European Convention on Human Rights, and also pledged to dismantle the Conservative’s prior laws regarding fatalities during The Troubles. Moreover, it will discontinue the practice of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, a Conservative strategy which has resulted in numerous individuals being transferred to the Republic via Northern Ireland, much to the satisfaction of Brexit supporters who perceived it as a slap on the wrist for Dublin.
Labour asserts it will uphold the Windsor Framework in sincerity and revive the Good Friday Agreement, a critical accomplishment of the former Labour government. Putting the rhetoric aside, it is anticipated that Starmer will broker an agreement with Brussels, effectively easing the stringent veterinary controls currently hampering trade between Northern Ireland and Britain.
Such an agreement, if actualised, won’t be predominantly about Ireland and Northern Ireland; rather, Starmer can present it as a “food treaty” aimed to restock the British market with products that have been missing for months. Whilst Dublin might laud such a move, the authority to implement it doesn’t reside with them. This would require Brussels to approach the agreement politically, to avoid accusations of Starmer attempting to reconnect London with the EU.
Such an agreement would inherently serve the UK’s interests, especially following the noticeable scarcity faced by British consumers from January 31st when the UK started to impose food inspections on eastern imports. This has had immediate implications, as highlighted by an Irish trade specialist pointing out shortages of Italian tomato paste in Manchester, among numerous other items. A considerable number of European food businesses have stopped exporting to the UK due to extra paperwork, resulting in a significant drop in Danish bacon imports at Lowestoft, among other cases. The enumeration continues.
Early on Friday, encouraging commencement messages from Brussels were received. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed her anticipation to work collaboratively with Starmer to tackle shared issues.
However, a food agreement necessitates compliance with Brussels’ rules and some form of jurisdiction by the European Court of Justice during disputes. This arrangement could restrict opportunities for the UK to independently negotiate future trade deals outside the EU framework.
The Tories have held a strong longing for such deals, despite failing to create one that substantially reshaped the game’s rules. Labour, on the other hand, has displayed minimal enthusiasm to follow this path.
An obsession with implementing Brussels’ rules might lead to difficulties. Furthermore, the Commission will be experiencing its own internal shift over the coming months, with von der Leyen yet to secure her mandate for the incoming five years.
In the meantime, Labour has made a commitment to eradicate the legislation related to the The Troubles legacy, a legislation unequivocally denounced by Dublin and every political party in Northern Ireland for potentially concealing British security agencies’ wrongdoings during those years.
Promising to “repeal and replace”, the intent is to revert to the Stormont House Agreement established in January 2014, which insists on mutual agreement between Dublin, London, and all Stormont parties on charting the path ahead. This endeavour, however, will not be straightforward.
The Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery, led by former Northern Ireland Chief Lord Justice Declan Morgan, is already operative with the authority to probe Troubles deaths between 1996 and 1998.
One source contemplates, “How long will that process ensue? It could need a year or two for legislation to be passed through Westminster. If Hilary Benn aims to strike a deal with all the parties, it might even prolong. Meanwhile, the ICRIR will continue its operations.”
Additionally, this agreement will require Dublin to disclose more information concerning any data possessed by the gardaí or intelligence quarters in the Republic about Troubles deaths. Opinions are split on how much information is at hand, or was ever available, to be shared.
Throughout a large portion of the years post-2016, the Tories championed a very stringent form of Brexit, an effort that was largely endorsed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), even though a good number of Northern Ireland’s citizens were not in favour of such a move.
The DUP’s leader at the time, Arlene Foster, famously deterred a near-finalised agreement between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker in late 2017 by threatening to withdraw her party’s MPs from a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories.
In his current term, Sir Keir Starmer doesn’t and never did need the backing of the DUP, considering his commanding majority. However, he will have a keen interest in maintaining fair relationships with the parties of Northern Ireland.
Starmer is more interested in addressing the public service issues in the UK, particularly in regards to driving economic growth. Thus, he’d prefer to steer clear of any discussions that could lead to difficult questions, such as the constitutional futures of either Northern Ireland or Scotland.
The substantial rise in Labour MPs in Scotland, from a single one in 2019 to 37 at present, has hit hard any aspirations the Scottish National Party may have had for an independence referendum.
Starmer, albeit soft-spoken, is a unionist through and through. He has no desire to see the clamour for an Irish vote increase. Rather, he will channel his energy towards improving the conditions in Northern Ireland for its residents, keeping constitutional issues at bay.