Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, celebrated the party’s significant victory in the Blackpool South by-election, heralding it as a showing of an impending overall victory in the upcoming UK general elections. The successful candidate for Labour, Chris Webb, secured the third largest shift from the conservatives to Labour in the post-WWII era, marking the win as deeply impacting on the political landscape.
Chris Webb, a favourite among locals, secured the victory with a comfortable margin of 10,825 votes, leaving his Conservative counterpart, David Jones, trailing at a mere 3,218 votes. Mark Butcher, representing the Reform party, only managed to accumulate 3,101 votes.
The victory in Blackpool South has contributed to Labour’s increasing dominance in areas that previously voted for Brexit and were under the control of Boris Johnson’s Conservative party, as shown by Labour’s capturing of council control in Rushmoor, Thurrock and Hartlepool. Contrarily, they lost in Oldham, possibly due to the party’s position on the Gaza conflict affecting their popularity amongst citizens of Muslim faith.
Mr Starmer claimed this “groundbreaking win in Blackpool South” to be the significant election result of the day, emphasising that it represented a direct message of voters desiring a change from Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.
Labour’s recent victory in Blackpool South, related to a swing of 26%, is the third greatest shift of support to Labour from the Tories since WWII, and the fifth occasion in recent 18 months where Labour has wrestle a seat from the government with a swing exceeding 20%
John Curtice, a Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, expressed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that these election results might be suggestive of an upcoming comprehensive victory for Labour in the general election. He pointed out that significant shifts from the Conservative party to Labour were last seen with similar frequency during the 1992-1997 parliament, a time that signalled a significant political shift.
The CEO of the Local Government Information Unit, Jonathan Carr-West, commented on the recent consistent downfall of the Conservative party, post-2019. Indications suggest that there will not be any upward change this year. Early forecasting by pollsters indicate that the Tories could be set for losing half of their council seats from the recent Thursday night contest, potentialy facing a loss of up to 500 seats.
This significant loss would likely prompt another effort from rebellious Tories to replace the prime minister, especially considering the proximity to the general election. Despite these concerns, allies of Mr. Sunak are banking on maintaining the mayoralties in Tees Valley and West Midlands, as polling predictions suggest tight races in these areas.
On the other hand, the Labour party had its victories in areas like Blackpool, Thurrock and Hartlepool, but it was also dealt a blow with unexpected losses in Oldham. This was due to a relinquishing of council control to independent candidates, spurred on by local discontent over Mr Starmer’s Gaza stance.
Mr. Carr-West noted the potential impact of Labour’s stance on Gaza on their election results, indicating that this is elecetion’s first instance of it. He highlighted that the results of local elections are not a clear indication of general election outcomes, and serve as a reminder of how international and local politics can be entwined. This information is based on an article in The Guardian.