The upcoming federal election in Germany, slated for exactly a year from now, was intended as a referendum on whether Olaf Scholz and or without his influence, his ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) could attain a re-election. However, as of Monday, the pertinent question has transformed into whether the SPD-dominated coalition will live to see Christmas.
Three years past, Scholz was the shining star of SPD, winning back the chancellorship with a customised election campaign that emphasised enhanced “fairness”. This campaign was characterised by striking monochrome images. Despite his popularity, the same images in June’s European election (where Scholz wasn’t a contender) led the SPD to its lowest polling results, a drop of 10 points from 2021, standing at 15.8%.
Prior to the September 1st state elections, SPD distanced Scholz from its campaign posters in Saxony and Thuringia and only had him for rallies resulting in a devastating single-digit polling result. The current SPD coalition led by Scholz is only approved by a fifth of Germans as it struggles with major international crisis – Russia, Israel/Gaza and still unresolved domestic arguments about economy, migration, and climate policy.
Out of concern, the SPD in Brandenburg, saw a marginal win on Sunday with 31 per cent votes, this happened after they deliberately made the choice to exclude the Chancellor from both campaign posters and rallies. SPD has been the ruling party in Brandenburg (the state that encircles Berlin) since 1990. It’s leader, Dietmar Woidke, secured victory by vowing for increased stability and job opportunities such as the ones offered by the new Tesla factory in Brandenburg. Additionally, the deliberate abstention of their chancellor, who is a short two-minute walk away from the Potsdam state parliament, proved beneficial.
The embarrassment couldn’t have been more profound for Scholz, who joined a party front bench conference call from New York and, according to participants, kept his comments short. This was unlike Kevin Kühnert, the SPD general secretary, who lauded Woidke as an “ideal example” of how to triumph in an election.
Federal polls forecast the SPD at a measly 15 per cent, while Scholz ranks 18th in politician popularity. Even though he’s not the party leader, it will be the SPD’s choice whether or not Scholz will be the 2025 chancellor candidate.
Although he is expected to be nominated to run once more, it’s not set in stone. SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil vaguely remarked on Sunday night, “We have matters that need to be sorted out in the upcoming weeks.”
Contrarily, its main competitor, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has rallied behind party chairman Friedrich Merz as its front-runner.
Given a 20-point advantage over the SPD, the subsequent federal election is ostensibly in the grasp of Merz’s CDU. However, plenty of events can take place between the present day and election day.
Migration-security concerns could potentially further amplify the far-right Alternative for Germany’s popularity (AfD). Although it is at 20 per cent nationally and 5 points ahead of SPD at a national level, it falls short of the 30 per cent it acquired in the state elections in September.
A new unpredictable factor is the left-conservative populist BSW alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht, which gained considerable support in three state elections and, recently, in federal polls.
As mentioned by Dr. Albrecht von Lucke, editor of the Blätter political journal, “With state elections like these, eastern Germany has turned into a political testing ground for the entire nation. The immense challenge of coalition formations that we’re currently seeing in the eastern states is indicative of more complex times to come at the federal level in Berlin.”
Scholz’s allies in Berlin, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), have left the Brandenburg state parliament. FDP’s influential deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki cautioned on Monday, “Unless we manage to identify a sensible mutual ground in the forthcoming fortnight or three weeks, it’s pointless for the FDP to persevere in this coalition.”
Regardless of the SPD’s outcome, an active autumn season is predicted for Scholz and the political scene in Germany.