The upcoming general election in South Africa presents opposition parties the best chance in three decades to unseat the long-standing ANC, according to Durban-born politician John Steenhuisen, the leader of South Africa’s premier opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA). Steenhuisen, who officially assumed leadership in November 2020, views the election as a decisive moment which may potentially either steer South Africa towards economic rehabilitation or accelerate its descent towards becoming a “failed state”.
Reflecting in his parliamentary suite in Cape Town, Steenhuisen insisted that the poll could usher in a historic shift in national-level political alliances for a nation that has been under sole ANC rule since 1994. He highlighted that the May 29th vote could potentially be the first in over seven decades where no party secures an overall majority. He voiced his belief that given this scenario, a party like the DA stands a notable chance of triumphing.
The declining popularity of the ANC over the last 15 years has set a stage where 11 opposition parties and civil society organisations formed an alliance, the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), in August; the DA being the most prominent participant. Other participants in the MPC include the Inkatha Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus, ActionSA, African Christian Democratic Party and other smaller political factions.
Since its foundation, the DA has faced difficulty in winning over South Africa’s black electorate who largely perceive the party as being representative of white interests predominantly. It continues to face such perceptions despite the 2022 survey by the local Social Research Foundation reporting that the party is the most racially diverse in the nation, with black, white and mixed-race members each constituting approximately 30 per cent of its members. The Party’s electoral performance has stagnated at 22.2 per cent of the national vote, a figure it attained in the 2014 election. Despite this, Steenhuisen remains positive about his party’s prospects.
Looking ahead, he is confident that forging partnerships with the extensively black Inkatha Freedom Party and multiracial ActionSA might increase the DA’s attractiveness to black voters. Very few political pundits believed that this coalition had a tangible possibility of securing electoral victory until now, although it is expected to have considerable influence in city regions.
Regardless of the ANC experiencing significant erosion in their urban following in the previous two nationwide polls, they maintain a strong backing in rural South Africa. Furthermore, if the ANC fails to secure the necessary majority for solo governance – 50 per cent plus one vote – they could form another alliance to keep their grip on power.
However, fresh voter research conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation, a think tank based in Johannesburg, indicates that the coalition is catching up with the ANC. The survey published on March 10th suggests that the MPC is only lagging behind the ANC by 6 per cent, with a 39 per cent share of the vote. Steenhuisen, a descendent of an Irish grandmother from Bray, Co Wicklow who moved to South Africa, remarked that the gap is increasingly closing. “Yet, surpassing the 50 per cent margin is still a tad too distant for my taste.”
The Brenthurst survey corresponds to other recent voting polls that imply the ANC’s political dominance in South Africa is under threat. Pole position is becoming increasingly challenging to keep due to high-level corruption, incompetence within the government, a deplorable public service delivery record, and a failure to address crime, create employment or stimulate economic growth.
Although this political climate might seem favourable for Steenhuisen’s DA and other dissenting parties, he is worried about the lengths ANC might go to retain control. The prospect of ANC making “a drastic shift to the left” to secure its position has both international and local investors on tenterhooks. If the ANC, the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters, and former president Jacob Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) were to establish a coalition government, “Many investors would be extremely apprehensive, probably seeking investment prospects elsewhere.”
A recent debacle involving South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) involving a leak of ANC’s and EFF’s election candidate lists to the public has sparked concern in Steenhuisen about the integrity of the election process. This situation suggests to him that the ANC is positioning members within the IEC, leading to internal divisions that mirror those in the ANC itself, with the possible intention to weaken each other’s faction.
In light of these issues, Steenhuisen has reached out, last week, to international bodies such as the African Union, the United States and other Western nations. The aim was to attract universal support in order to safeguard the integrity of the elections and to prevent potential disturbances to the democratic process – both domestically and internationally.
The possibility of an extreme left bias in the national government has Steenhuisen on the edge. He confessed he would not exclude the possibility of forming an alliance with the ANC. He posits that this could potentially be a lesser evil to avoid a worst-case scenario where the ANC partners with the EFF and the MKP, leading the party to lean towards the far left. In such an eventuality, he fears that there might be an immediate loss of investment and a decline in confidence within the country.
His concern, therefore, is the potential of ex-president Jacob Zuma’s pledge to ‘drain the swamp’ to convince the South African electorate.