Your child aspires to be a primary school teacher and is hopeful to gain the necessary Central Applications Office (CAO) points post his Leaving Cert exam in August. Despite the years of examination grade inflation, he doesn’t appear overly concerned and anticipates that grading will commence its return to previous levels starting from the forthcoming year. He is under the impression that securing a spot would be more accessible in 2025 compared to the year before, but is this accurate?
Your child’s forward-thinking nature is commendable. The Leaving Cert grades for the current academic year have been deliberately enhanced to match those of preceding years, pursuant to a ruling from Norma Foley, the Minister for Education. This intention is to guarantee fairness among those learners who faced educational disruptions due to the Covid outbreak.
This consequently means, if your child narrowly misses a spot in a high-demand course in 2024, the likelihood of him securing one in the following year is considerably high.
The reason behind this is that he will be competing for CAO points with learners whose grades have not undergone artificial inflation.
Currently, the Leaving Cert grades are almost 7.9 per cent higher overall in comparison to the grades pre-pandemic span.
From the coming year, the grades are expected to start deflating, with a projected average fall of one grade per Leaving Cert pupil annually for the next four years.
An estimation of what changes it may bring about — currently, students attaining 500-550 points, after adjustment, will likely see their CAO points settle between 450-500 by 2028.
As per the 2023 admission criteria for primary teaching at DCU, Mary Immaculate or Marino, your son would require about 475-500 points.
Points are expected to drop in 2025 if he fails to secure a position this year, but there’s no guaranteed assurance. CAO points often vary based on applicant demand and available spots.
The demographics of late have resulted in a sharp decline in the number of students entering and progressing through the primary school system.
The overflow of qualified teachers in recent years has been dealt with by decreasing the student-to-teacher proportion. Whether further reductions in this ratio will ensure ample opportunities for teaching graduates in the future is uncertain. These trends could impact student’s interest and consequently, the number of points required by CAO.
What is irrefutably clear is that your son, along with many others, will possess a ‘golden ticket’ of overrated grades.
Each year, around a fifth of CAO applicants submit Leaving Certificate results from past years. Hence, the graduates of 2024 (and those of 2020-2023) could have an upper hand if they apply for CAO courses from the year 2025 onwards as compared to their future counterparts.