Six Nations: Ireland versus England at Twickenham, Saturday, 4.45pm – Broadcast live on channels RTÉ 2 and ITV
A significant event seems to await the Irish team every time they step onto the rugby field, and where better to kick off celebrations than in England, rugby’s home territory? This offers the visiting Green Army, along with parts of the expatriate Irish community, plenty to cheer for.
The Irish team stands on the verge of breaking the championship record, aiming for their twelfth successive win. If achieved, this surpasses England’s streak of eleven victories between the years 2015 and 2017. The team could also match the historic Irish record of securing five straight wins in the 149-year and 141-game history of this particular game.
However, the stakes are even higher. A win incorporating a bonus point would ensure back-to-back Six Nations titles. Effectively, a simple victory would likely accomplish the same, given Ireland’s superior points difference (+81) in comparison to Scotland’s (+6).
Furthermore, a victory over England opens the opportunity for Ireland to be the first team to win consecutive Grand Slams – a feat only achieved by five teams in the game’s history, but never in the Six Nations era. Given Ireland’s current momentum, they arguably have their best chance ever to secure back-to-back Grand Slams.
The dream of successive Grand Slams is unspoken but understood within this victorious Irish squad. “It’s the ultimate goal for us all here,” confessed Peter O’Mahony during his maiden captain’s run across Twickenham’s flawless, billiard-table-like turf.
He further added, “To accomplish what you’re referring to, we all need to be on top of our game. We’ve acknowledged this but haven’t discuss it in detail for some time now. While it’s not a distraction, it’s currently not relevant. We better show everyone through our performance what we’re really thinking. To keep all our goals achievable, we need to perform earnestly. It must surpass all our previous efforts by far. As we move through the competition, we need to improve with every match. If we can do this, everything else will naturally fall into place.”
Ireland’s performance against Wales was somewhat erratic, notably in the first half, and a team with greater striking power could have potentially narrowed the score to 17-14, especially when Tadhg Beirne was temporarily removed from the game in the early part of the second half. This factor may spark worries, or alternatively drive Ireland towards a sharper, carefully accurate execution hereon.
Despite the fact that Ireland benefited from a direct approach after adding substitutes during the Wales game, Farrell does not consider this direct approach as the route to victory over England.
“To make optimal decisions in given moments and maintaining a level headed attitude are key. Sheer aggression doesn’t guarantee success as constantly tackling a robust defence would be counterproductive. Our focus should lie with efficient movement, numerical advantage at the line and seizing right opportunities resulting from it.”
With Ireland, the tactics are well-figured and the team is stable. However, rating the English team is a different matter.
England has won eight out of ten matches in their recent World Cup and Six Nations competitions, nearly making it to the World Cup final. In the past two championships, they have succeeded in limiting Ireland’s play, notwithstanding receiving a red card each time.
Contrarily, their eight wins have been against low-tier teams including Argentina (twice), Japan, Chile, Samoa (barely, by 18-17), Fiji (30-24), Italy (27-24), and Wales (16-14). If we compare performance with Italy and Wales, Ireland appears to have far more favourable odds than the given 12-point favourites.
Moreover, England’s Six Nations’ track-recording the recent past is mixed, with eight wins and ten losses in eighteen games. Four of those victories were against Italy and three against Wales, while Scotland has defeated them consecutively for the first time since the 1890s.
On the other hand, Ireland boasts a much more favourable record with fifteen wins and three losses. The margins of their last four victories over England were impressively around teens – 14, 17, 13, and 19 points.
England’s performance has attracted considerable attention and criticism, justified by complaints from many ex-players. Even key players such as Jonny May and Ben Youngs have accepted their lack of training in offence.
To date, the team has successfully scored six tries in three matches, which is less than the 11 tries they made against the counterpart teams in the previous season. Even when down by two scores with less than 10 minutes remaining in Murrayfield, they continued with their preplanned box-kicking strategy when operating within the 10-metre lines, displaying a certain robotic aspect. They were impressive in George Furbank’s try with an excellent strike play but lack a robust phased attack.
Rather than reverting to the tactics of Steve Borthwick’s analytical style by drafting back Freddie Steward for an aerial assault, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso has been tasked with his Test debut, following his try-scoring stunt in Murrayfield.
Owen Farrell emphatically stated his disinterest in the ongoing criticism of the English team. His focus remains on the players’ performance, the support from the coaching staff, and the comprehensive plan in place. He perceives the forthcoming weekend game as a significant opportunity for the team to prove their mettle, making them a formidable threat.
The English squad is well-equipped with seasoned international players, with Maro Itoje especially standing out with his robust form. Joe McCarthy is expected to rise to the occasion as well. The English team, poised with several lineout threats, including Itoje, is set to challenge Ireland’s set pieces, recalling the five scrum penalties Ireland conceded two years ago.
Jack Crowley is poised for a stern examination of his decision-making skills under the strain of Felix Jones’s aggressive defence strategy. England’s persistence to keep within a score’s paces will be crucial as their catch-up game seems unconvincing. Nevertheless, the Irish team’s sophistication, coupled with a cunning and influential bench strength, may tilt the result in their favour.
Despite the anxiety-inducing aspect, it is undeniable that an Irish victory is the most rational prediction, with an expected margin of 10 to 15 points.
England’s team boasts players such as George Furbank and Tommy Freeman from Northampton, as well as Exeter’s Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Henry Slade. Bath’s Ollie Lawrence, Bristol’s Ellis Genge and Saracens’ Jamie George – who is also the captain – join them. Also featuring for England are players from Leicester, including Dan Cole, George Martin and Ollie Chessum, as well as Saracen’s Ben Earl and Bath’s Sam Underhill. The substitutes include Joe Marler from Harlequins and Saracen’s Elliot Daly among others.
On the contrary, Ireland is spearheaded by Leinster’s Hugo Keenan, Munster’s Calvin Nash and Robbie Henshaw, also from Leinster, alongside Bundee Aki from Connacht and James Lowe from Leinster. Leinster’s Jack Crowley and Munster’s Jamison Gibson-Park also take the field. The substitutes boast Leinster’s Rónan Kelleher and Munster’s Conor Murray, among others.
The match is officiated by referee Nika Amashukeli from Georgia with assistance from Andrea Piardi of Italy and Wales’ Craig Evans. The TMO is Wales’ Ben Whitehouse.
Historically, the two teams have played 141 times, with England securing 80 victories, Ireland winning 53 times and 8 games ending in draws.
In their previous five encounters, England and Ireland have quite a history. In the ANC tournament of 2020, England achieved a victory of 18-7. However, in the 6N series of 2021, Ireland turned the tables with a 32-18 triumph, then repeating the feat in the 2022 6N series with a 32-15 win. This victory streak by Ireland continued in the 2023 6N series where they beat England 29-16, and again in the RWC warm-up matches with a scoreline of 29-10 to Ireland.
Reviewing the performance over the recent five matches for both teams; England experienced a 15-16 defeat against South Africa, but they bounced back with victories against Argentina (26-23), Italy (27-24 away), and Wales (16-14 home). The last game resulted in a 21-30 loss to Scotland away. On the Irish side, they thrashed Scotland 36-14, albeit suffering a narrow defeat of 24-28 to New Zealand. Ireland then dominated France with a 38-17 victory (away), put on an unbroken performance against Italy (36-0 at home), and concluded with a 31-7 beating of Wales at home.
Betting odds currently stand at 4-1 in favour of England, 25-1 for a draw, and 1-5 backing Ireland. There’s also a handicap bet on offer with England getting a 12 point lead, at evens for both England and Ireland, and a 25-1 chance for a draw.
Analysing all these factors, the expectation is that Ireland will secure the win, possibly by a margin of between 10 to 15 points.