The assassination of Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas, by Israeli forces has opened a critical chapter in the Middle East, particularly in the ongoing Gaza conflict, which is now in its second year. Although immediate reactions generate more uncertainties than resolution, there may be emerging opportunities to halt the warfare.
The successors to pivotal roles in the conflict, substitutes to be decided within the coming weeks, play a key role. Optimism resides in the potential for Sinwar’s successor in Hamas to possess an inclination towards peace negotiations. Equally, for Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, Sinwar’s death could be seen as a triumph that supports peace talks. Hizbullah, based in Lebanon, may also be prepared to halt their attacks on Israel’s northern regions conditioned on peace in Gaza.
Sinwar’s role had been viewed as obstructive to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, and his death, along with the recent murder of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, might persuade Iran, Hamas, and Hizbullah to accept peace. However, initial reactions from Hizbullah and Iran seemed decisive, with Hizbullah declaring a ramped-up phase of warfare with Israel and Iran insisting that resistance would be intensified post Sinwar’s assassination.
Currently, several influential people in the military and intelligence community are suggesting that Israel should capitalize on its perceived dominance and broker peace. In exchange for halting warfare in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel’s demands would likely entail the release of hostages; eliminating the military and government influence of Hamas; ensuring Hizbullah retreat north of the Litani river with effective strategies to prevent fighters from returning to the border; and a global validation of Israel’s right to launch military attacks in Gaza and south Lebanon if the agreements are not upheld.
The future direction depends on Sinwar’s successor in Hamas, whether they will favour a peace deal or resort to militancy, continuing armed resistance and guerrilla tactics as the more effective method to pressurise Israeli forces into withdrawing from Gaza. The ability of the forthcoming Hamas leader to communicate with hostages and their captors, and to enforce decisions agreed upon by all militant factions, remains uncertain.
The appointment of a new Hamas leader from the overseas leadership could give rise to new issues. These leaders have lost meaningful ties with residual commanders of Hamas in Gaza since there is no longer a means to disburse funds or maintain communication with them.
Following the confirmation of Sinwar’s demise, discussions took place between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden. Both agreed that there’s an opportunity to expedite the release of the hostages.
There’s a likelihood that some of Hamas captors could try to retaliate for the death of their commander by endangering or even murdering the hostages. Such an event emphasises the need to quickly seize the absence engendered by Sinwar’s passing. To jump-start a blueprint to end the stalemate, it is imperative for Israel to liaise with Washington, and Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries.
US defense secretary Lloyd Austin posits that Sinwar’s elimination has paved the way for new opportunities in the region. According to him, Sinwar’s demise could usher in an enduring ceasefire, terminate the horrific war, guarantee the safe return of Israelis to their residences in southern Israel, increase humanitarian aid to alleviate suffering in Gaza, and deliver relief to Palestinians who have suffered under the brutal rule of Hamas.
A potential alternative is that Israel could negotiate separate agreements with the various armed Hamas factions detaining hostages.
The military posture of Hamas has undergone a significant shift with Sinwar out of the picture. The central command is no longer influential, and the organisation has evolved into various fractions operating independently in different areas of Gaza. There’s minimal collaboration between those in the north and those south of the IDF-held Netzarim corridor, which isolates the coastal enclave into two.
An Israeli proposition, of safe exit from Gaza for those who release the hostages, could incentivise some of Hamas’s armed members to act autonomously rather than waiting for a comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release pact. It is believed that some hostages are held by local factions, often with criminal affiliations, who might find such a proposal appealing.
However, Netanyahu continues to grapple with internal resistance from the extreme right faction of his coalition against any agreement. Recently, mediators from Egypt and Qatar claimed that Netanyahu has been postponing the conclusion of a deal in order to secure his political dominance. Immediately after Sinwar’s death, his far-rightist coalition comrades demanded that Israel intensify military force in Gaza. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, urged Israel to persist “with full force until ultimate success.”