Drawing from the insights of the recent election cycle, we discern two distinct signals. The initial one pertains to Sinn Féin’s disappointing performance. The latter is tied to the repercussion of the much reduced standards of candidates, who pedalled division and targeting immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers, while advocating for an impractical border control that Brexiteers would find appealing.
There were a variety of factors which swayed voters, but the unsettling reality was the presence of assaults, harassment of campaigners and public representatives, alongside a visible anti-immigrant rhetoric. The frequency of such incidents raising alarms, however, have not been given due heed, much like alarms in Ireland commonly being ignored.
While Sinn Féin didn’t perform to expectations, the repercussions are likely to be felt internally. The government, despite its mishandling of housing issues and misallocation of resources for those seeking international protection, didn’t get decimated at the polling booths.
There is speculation that Sinn Féin tried to channel a growing anti-establishment sentiment to the centre of political might. It is crucial not to exaggerate the influence of the “immigration” factor, but Sinn Féin’s lack of clarity on this issue notably reflects its broader ambiguity. Voters, in different kinds of elections, may gravitate towards your brand due to its broadness, allowing for their interpretation; nevertheless, vague positioning isn’t a sustainable strategy. And what would Sinn Féin’s position be in 2024?
The “anti-immigrant sentiment” symbolises the irrational fear and negativity towards outsiders, wrongfully attributing the dearth of housing and social infrastructure to immigrants rather than flawed systemic practices. Although Sinn Féin remained largely silent as this sentiment grew, the party’s vagueness did not help them gain more traction, which is one explanation for their continued decline.
Amidst the rise of protests against immigration, the Sinn Féin party shifted its messaging. The focus wasn’t on reasoning behind the protests, but where these demonstrations should occur. The party’s politicians suggested demonstrators boycott stemming outside refugee and asylum-seeker accommodations and instead convey their complaints straight to the Government. Eventually, these incensed, disarrayed groups heeded the advice and landed on Kildare Street, mock gallows in tow.
It could be that Sinn Féin saw an unusual anti-establishment revolution burgeoning and aspired to redirect it to the heart of governmental power. However, the party did not realise that, regardless of their political leanings, some people see them as part of the political institution. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are often condemned for their extended stints in power, but even those potentially attracted to Sinn Féin could be becoming weary of the opposition.
The choice for Sinn Féin now is to either take action or react. Succumbing to anti-immigrant populism is a move, not a game plan. Regardless, the extreme anti-immigrant movement is unlikely to throw their support behind Sinn Féin. Although often politically inconsistent, anti-immigrant protesters are typically firmly against Sinn Féin. Almost comically, the scare of radicalism prompted a return to known, traditional factors, which influenced Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Greens to withstand these elections and fortified some leftwing candidates outspokenly against bigotry.
In failing to express its principles and positions clearly, Sinn Féin is gambling with its existing voter base from 2020. The party’s representatives portray themselves as the counter to a whole century of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael dominance – a sentiment so commonly echoed it’s sounding like an automated response. The key policy of Sinn Féin, a united Ireland, isn’t merely a territorial issue; it has to symbolise an inclusive, caring society, rather than one that segregates and blames.
Over the past ten years, Irish electoral politics have exhibited unpredictability and varied patterns.
Sinn Féin is currently reassessing its strategy due to a number of glaring mistakes. One such error was running an excessive number of candidates, thereby dividing its own votes. It was clear to many that the groundwork laid out for canvassing was rather sparse. Local elections stand for proximity, contrasting with the distance expected in European ones. General elections, conversely, set out the expectations and hint towards the possible national directions each party’s brand could take. In the period preceding the voting day, the focus of Sinn Féin’s social media ads was Mary Lou McDonald, along with general promises of change. Thus, one ponders the motivation behind waging a general election battle during local and European elections.
The ruling party’s relief will be audibly evident. Contrastingly, Sinn Féin is faced with an important decision, whether to surrender to the allure of division – temporary popularity offering no real progress, merely leading to a dead-end – or genuinely guide the change the party constantly pledges. Moreover, this change should be affirmative and uplifting, as well as resonate with the public.
Over the past ten years, instability and constant change have defined Irish electoral politics. The majority of the electorate more closely resemble a flock of starlings, changing shape rapidly – a behaviour that political parties find challenging to foresee and harness. Local and European elections are not necessarily indicative of general election outcomes. Yet this changing behaviour indicates an existing political and leadership gap, especially relating to values. When an organisation’s principles are unclear, gaining the public’s support can prove to be a formidable challenge.