A general election always involves a key topic that, while not necessarily determining the final result, plays a noteworthy part in the political battle. In the 2016 general election, the issue of focus was water charges. The Government’s comprehensive plan to fit a water meter outside every house and charge homeowners for their water consumption, a typical fee in almost all European Union nations, faced considerable opposition. This challenge initially came from the left, but later also from supporters of middle-ground parties.
After five years of austerity measures and stringent economic regulation, the proposed water charges bravely tested the “Let’s Keep the Recovery Going” campaign promise by Fine Gael. To those resisting the Coalition, the interpretation was clear: there is no sense of economic recovery at the local level, yet the Government plans to implement an additional tax.
Issues surrounding water charges led to a successful political run for leftist groups, particularly Sinn Féin, during the 2016 general election. The prominence of water charges in political rhetoric led the 2016 “confidence and supply” discussions between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to mainly focus on resolving this issue. Fianna Fáil’s initial discussion document disproportionately dedicated space to water charges, with minor mention of potential nation-affecting issues like economy, housing, health, environment, transport, and climate change.
The parties collectively sought to keep the subject of water charges on the table. A special parliamentary committee was formed in 2017, recommending only households consuming 1.7 times the average were to be billed. This measure was a strategic manoeuvre to reduce the political significance of water charges. No billing system was ever enacted, and the water meters dotting pavements fast became nostalgic symbols of a bygone era, akin to phone booths and electronic voting machines.
The outstanding problem in 2020 was the subject of residence. This concept encompassed a broad spectrum, including homelessness, social housing, soaring rents, expensive first-time homes, and a significant deficiency in supply.
The general election in 2020 was an event demonstrating that minor elections don’t necessarily offer a reliable forecast of general election results.
A discrepancy always existed between Sinn Féin’s position on immigration and the viewpoints of a section of its supporters, notably in the working-class regions of Dublin.
Sinn Féin managed to recover from its lacklustre 2019 performance by honing in on a handful of key topics, where it held the upper hand compared to its chief competitors. In the realm of housing, several aspects favoured Sinn Féin. They were represented by a proficient and eloquent spokesperson, Eoin Ó Broin. On the other hand, despite its efforts and investments, the Government didn’t have much to show for the lengthy duration it took to “fix” the housing situation.
Their opponents’ critique centered around their failure in delivery and capability. It fueled the broader narrative of a generation shut out from the opportunity of owning a property. This was the first election where voters outside Sinn Féin’s support base seriously thought of them as an alternative choice for the government.
What will be the leading topic of the next general election? Until the fall of the previous year, it was housing. Occupancy issues were the clear front runners for most of the preceding year, consistently reaching the mid-20 percentage point in terms of visibility when all other issues hardly broke into single figures. However, following the protests concerning the accommodation centre and the riots in Dublin during November and December, the emphasis suddenly shifted toward immigration. Since those events, with only a couple of exceptions, immigration has outpaced housing as the most conspicuous issue.
A discord has always existed between the immigration policy of Sinn Féin and the sentiments of a portion of its followers, particularly in the labouring-class areas of Dublin. Anti-immigrant views were not uncommon within the party’s promotion, although Sinn Féin never actively exploited this. However, this inconsistent stance has contributed to the noticeable decrease in Sinn Féin’s popularity in recent times. This has resulted in previous supporters transitioning their loyalty to independants and right-leaning figures, mirroring an overall shift in immigration perception amongst voters.
Sinn Féin’s initial strategy to regain support emerged during the last two weeks, introducing an updated immigration policy that partially concedes to campaigners wishing to block local accommodation centres. The party recently revealed a fraction of its highly anticipated housing policy, pledging 50,000 social and affordable houses priced at €300,000 each. The innovative aspect of this policy is that the actual land will remain in state ownership (as opposed to the residence itself) even if the property is later sold by the ‘homeowner’.
Alan Dillon, the Minister of State for Housing, was quick to criticise Sinn Féin’s approach. Within minutes, he claimed the new policy would prevent individuals from ever owning their own property.
It is not certain at present whether either of these two contentious subjects will shape the next election. If immigration becomes the main issue, the outcomes for Sinn Féin do not look promising. Even if the principal political focus shifts to housing, the debate terms will deviate from those of 2020.
The previous election centred around the incumbent government’s inadequacies regarding housing policy. This does not presume that Darragh O’Brien has resolved the housing issue, but the situation is no longer perceived as a complete disaster. Progress has been noted in certain areas (although homelessness is not one of them). Thus, if the housing issue becomes the central focus, it may less about capabilities but clash of values regarding homeownership.
Ultimately, it may prove a challenge for Sinn Féin to emulate the success they enjoyed four years ago irrespective of the dominating issue.