Should the Government be organising a general election for this upcoming autumn, they are now within the final 100 days of preparation. We’ve witnessed this situation before. For instance, Enda Kenny was prepared for a national vote during autumn 2015, however, Labour would not comply, leading to a delayed election until February 2016. Likewise, Leo Varadkar had the opportunity to exploit his government’s triumphs with Brexit in the autumn of 2019, yet he was eventually driven to an election in February 2020. These voting rounds resulted in Fine Gael dwindling significantly from their historic peak in 2011, replacing Fianna Fáil only momentarily as the primary governance party.
Currently, neither Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael dominate as the ruling party, instead, a fusion of both parties with additional alliances exists, given that the count figures match up. This unveils the alterations in the Irish political landscape’s terms and conditions in recent times.
The once booming Sinn Féin has fizzled out, and their rebound is yet to commence. The party’s policy unveiling for international protection, recognised as ‘A Fair System That Works’, was tainted by a recent dispute on RTÉ Radio One between Mary Lou McDonald, the party leader, and radio host Philip Boucher Hayes. No longer projecting confidence, McDonald struggled to elucidate her new policy and became visibly irritated in the process.
McDonald must consequently aim to master her costings in future interviews. Sinn Féin unveiled their affordable housing policy last Thursday, this is expected to be followed by a comprehensive, fully costed housing strategy in September. The upcoming plan proposes the construction of 60,000 new household units annually until 2029. The initial document suggests that the governing party can offer affordable housing for €300,000, a figure McDonald previously received criticism over when suggesting it as a general housing price goal during last Christmas. Lower-priced rentals of €1,000 monthly are also part of the proposal.
Sinn Féin is keen to tackle housing issues in the elections, yet it has skirted around matters concerning international protection as long as possible. The current stance of the party on international protection seems to be a tough-talking front, although it hasn’t notably gazumped to the right.
In contrast, the Green Party doesn’t stand to gain much. Their immediate requirement is to stir up enthusiasm in their campaign. Affordable accommodation valued at €300,000 and rentals for €1,000 (assuming practicability) could be the cornerstone of a transformative movement. McDonald must ensure she doesn’t falter in presenting her budgetary estimations in another interview. Assessments of these cost numbers will face rigorous scrutiny. If they don’t hold up under this pressure, Sinn Féin’s chances will falter too. Given the significant strides the party has made, the selection of future leaders will likely be tied to election performance for the first time, a novelty for Sinn Féin. If there’s a leadership change in the pipeline, it’s not guaranteed that the party president, separate from the Dáil party leader, will hail from the south.
The current administration holds some cards in its favour as the elections loom. The well-received Simon Harris has managed to swing Fine Gael from a deficit to a surplus position. Micheál Martin’s reassuring approach resonates with Fine Gael voters, a crucial factor concerning transfers. Barring minor fluctuations, Fianna Fáil has managed to maintain a stable position in line with or slightly under their performance in the previous general elections.
On the environmental front, the Greens achieved remarkable success with a 6.8% drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 amid economic growth. Yet, they don’t anticipate much reward, and there’s a fresh challenge for their newly appointed leader Roderic O’Gorman to shed the systemic conventions that marked his ministerial tenure. The Green Party urgently needs a little fire.
Additionally, the Government made significant strides during the last term by introducing pensions auto-enrolment courtesy of Heather Humphreys. Expected to roll out next year, this revolutionary initiative is set to bolster a level of security for what seems to be the most extended yet insecure generation in recent times.
The main elements in the upcoming general election will be security, wellbeing, and future-focused concerns. The preceding local and European elections presented unique circumstances that addressed different issues, and catered to a different group of voters. In comparison to these local elections, an estimated 13% more voters will appear for the general election, indicating a significant change, if prior general elections are to be taken as a precedent.
Undecided voters, late decision-makers, and those who abstained from voting on June 7th are set to be the game changers in the results of the general election. Housing in particular will be a crucial point for these voters. Thursday’s agenda presented by Sinn Féin was a strategic move to redefine the parameters of the debate.