Throughout this weekend’s Sinn Féin ardfheis, a sense of fierce determination was present, countering the pervasive idea that the party’s influence is diminishing. Matt Carthy, known for his stirring speeches, served as the ardfheis’s guiding voice, delivering a dynamic message to the participants in Athlone. He challenged the presumptions of Fine Gael, stating that they erroneously believe they will effortlessly return to power with the support of Fianna Fáil and the Independent party members. Carthy further refuted claims of Sinn Féin’s weakness, declaring they are most effective when under pressure.
Despite the spirited defence, it remains uncertain whether Mary Lou McDonald can engineer a second miraculous rejuvenation of the party, as it grapples with doubts. Various events have hinted at Sinn Féin being under considerable strain, from lacklustre local election outcomes, mediocre European election performances, to a striking plunge in the opinion polls conducted in 2024.
Government backbenchers have long been urging Simon Harris to trigger an election at the earliest possible moment. According to their logic, the quicker the election is declared, the shorter the window for Sinn Féin to rebound like they did in 2020.
Political realities are never static, and hence timing is crucial. Intriguingly, if an election had been called a week prior, the coalition parties would have landed straight into a turbulent first week of the campaign, having to justify particularly wasteful public spending on items like a bicycle shed, a security outpost, and the nationally contentious €2 billion-plus children’s hospital.
So, what’s the current state of Sinn Féin? The party is performing marginally better than its disappointing results in June, although it has yet to recover to the remarkable levels of support it held around this time last year. A persistent division seems to exist between the leadership’s progressive position on immigration and a group of party supporters voicing alarm over Ireland’s increasing immigrant population. This strife has only escalated over time.
Immigration could pose a significant problem for the party in the forthcoming election, given its somewhat mild transformation of its stance since last summer. Its critics accuse it of double talk with its messaging. This was encapsulated in Mary Lou McDonald’s keynote, detesting racism but implying opposition to Internationally-protected accommodation being situated in economically challenged neighbourhoods outside of the capital’s wealthiest areas.
The Party’s strategy includes talking about areas where it is strong, such as living costs, healthcare, and housing with two major policy documents on these topics due for release after the budget. Their stance is specific with pledges to get rid of student fees, introduce €10 a day childcare, and abolish the Universal Social Charge (USC) for those earning less than €45,000.
McDonald made an unexpected announcement in her address about the party’s plan to discard the means test for carers if they assume power. The cost could range from €400 million to €2 billion per annum depending on whose projections you trust.
The speech also underlined a need for change after Fine Gael’s 14-year governance, with relentless emphasis on Irish unification and Palestine, and widespread critique on Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon.
McDonald revealed plans for a new Minister of State for Reunification in the Taoiseach’s office, a move that doesn’t come as a shock.
A senior party member commented on a resurgence of their presence, equating it to late 2019, with a sense of increasing public attention towards them. Their internal polling and focus groups report consistently better results than other polls. Allegedly, some supporters who abstained from voting in the last summer elections are likely to vote this time around.
However, public polling indicates Sinn Féin faces a challenge in recouping its earlier position. Furthermore, it’s likely that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have heavy vote transfers to each other, a switch from the 2020 pattern.
Nonetheless, resistance is evident, and a slight sense of optimism was noticeable among the representatives this past weekend.