Amidst disappointing election results, Mary Lou McDonald and her fellow Sinn Féin members consider the steps they had promised to take for the party’s introspection. The road ahead is likely to be marked by many challenging discussions. Some party enthusiasts tried to reassure that the slight elevation in party support, despite the disaster in the 2019 local and European elections, demonstrates a possible victory. However, a majority of high-ranking members have been honest in voicing their profound disappointment. There has been an alarming downturn of Sinn Féin’s standing in the polls – not simply from the 2020 general election results but a deep plunge compared to the consistent 30 and above percentage in opinion polls held over the past three years.
While polls and elections are different, the party had braced itself for a decline in support – an outcome as dramatic as this, however, was unexpected. Better results might be in store for Sinn Féin in the general election than this week, yet resurfacing to the soaring heights of opinion polls looks challenging in the near future. This will necessitate a downward revision of its aim to gain seats in each constituency and will necessitate a significant enhancement of its administrative groundwork. Strikingly, this was the strategy that brought sensational success to the party in the nine-month period between the 2019 local and European elections and the 2020 general election.
Recreating that success seems more ambitious now, especially with a narrow window predicted. If an election is prompted by the Government in October, the time for preparation is limited to only four months.
Sinn Féin has, over the past four years, cautiously shifted its political stance from a protest party to a governing one. In this pursuit, it seems it has dismayed a section of its base who believed – not illogically, considering the party’s claims – that they were pledging a drastic change. This discord was evident in the adverse reactions to the party’s recent moderate pitch to London’s financial sector. A similar effect was seen in its backing of Government initiatives like hate speech legislation and the referendums in March.
McDonald’s recent outcry regarding Sinn Féin being held accountable for Government shortcomings calls for self-introspection. The question here is why voters are now comparing her party with the establishment. The credibility of Sinn Féin has already been compromised due to their fluctuating stance on various issues in the recent past. This essentially diminishes the possibilities of any substantial policy changes in the near future, further reinforcing this perception.
It raises a valid query as to whether a party, unchallenged with no leadership election for the past forty years, might find value in incorporating more democracy and openness in its internal debates. Sadly, this proposition doesn’t appear to be on the discussion table anytime soon.