Since it’s still early days in Simon Harris’s tenure, it would be premature to make any concrete conclusion. However, there already are some evident markers suggesting his approach towards the role, his key focal points, and the strategic decisions he’ll need to make in the future. Given the significant influence the government and the Taoiseach have over the country’s political course, these observations are noteworthy. Fianna Fáil, with its experienced players, is keeping a close eye on his moves.
His initial engagements in the Dáil demonstrate that Harris is keenly aware of the difference between the roles of Taoiseach and a minister. He does engage in some disputes with the Opposition but appears to be attempting to transcend these conflicts to embrace his role as Taoiseach: a figure of national leadership rather than a partisan character. While he is not adverse to confrontation with Sinn Féin when circumstances require, just as displayed at his inaugural EU summit in Brussels, he will aim to present elections as a choice between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, following the steps of his predecessor. Regular disputes with the Opposition in the Dáil, however, aren’t seemingly a part of his agenda.
Political strategy will be an ever-looming factor as Harris and his fellow government members establish their plans for the tenure of their administration. The strategic advantage of their actions will be weighted heavily. For example, despite the importance of the EU patents’ court referendum for Ireland’s economic health, the referendum was shelved due to a lack of political advantage. This strategy is expected to be reflected in other key political decisions as the general election approaches and the political landscape shifts.
Soon after the postponement of the patent court was confirmed, a report by Jennifer Bray suggested further liberalisation of abortion laws before the election was unlikely. It’s likely that similar reports will emerge in the next months. Another interesting aspect is that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are emphasizing ‘home ownership’ as opposed to Sinn Féin’s concentration on social and affordable housing.
The discourse around housing is reemerging in government talk, with Harris fervently reaffirming that resolving the housing crisis remains the government’s primary concern. An ambitious target of creating 250,000 new homes within a span of five years has been established. Moreover, it has been discerned that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael converse predominantly on homeownership, in contrast to Sinn Féin’s concentration on social and cost-effective housing. The variance between the two viewpoints may increasingly become pronounced. There’s an impending question regarding the future of government assistance initiatives such as Help to Buy, which is at risk of being abolished as per Sinn Féin’s proposal.
Fine Gael is aware that those compelled to live in their parental home are not likely to support the party. However, they remain optimistic of gaining support from self-sufficient homeowners and those who have reaped benefits from the appreciation of their property value.
Harris taking the reins as Taoiseach is marked by a sense of anticipation as the political landscape appears to be on the verge of a significant transformation. This sentiment is reflected in the recent party conferences, including the one held by the Green Party. They all appear to be in a state of watchful waiting.
Looking at recent developments, two pivotal trends have emerged from opinion polls post the previous elections. The initial rise of Sinn Féin was significant, however, their subsequent decline has been equally noteworthy. However, this slide in Sinn Féin’s popularity hasn’t been matched by significant gains for its primary rivals in the government. Instead, the support that Sinn Féin lost has been dispersed among various independent factions. This will be a point of discuss in the coming weeks.
Harris possesses a window of opportunity until the local and European elections to alter the perceptions of potential Fine Gael voters, given the current voting trends. It appears that voters, disillusioned with Mary Lou McDonald, have yet to reignite their fondness for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The public currently exudes a universal disdain for all parties. They may continue supporting the independent candidates and minor parties, but it’s also probable they’ll reconsider the major parties before the ballot due to their prominence in political discussions and media coverage. All signs point towards a significant shift, but the direction remains elusive.
Amid this unpredictability, Harris wields both an advantage and a liability. On one side, novelty. The public, irrespective of their engagement with politics, notices a fresh Taoiseach and is willing to lend an ear. On the other side, familiarity. His party has been governing for 13 years, and as commonly perceived, familiarity can breed contempt. The succession within Fine Gael’s leadership has added a new variable to the political chessboard. Between now and the forthcoming elections, Harris has the chance to modify how potential Fine Gael constituents view the party. Should he present himself as a man in haste… well, he ought to be.