As Simon Harris makes his way to the Taoiseach’s office, it is his capacity to engage and appeal to the younger demographic that’s causing a stir. The speculation is about how he can bring a breath of fresh air to the Cabinet with a few new ministers and gain increasing favour among citizens. Sinn Féin never misses an opportunity to remind us how hungry these citizens are for change. Such discussions are inevitable with European and local elections looming large on the horizon. The real question, however, is what will Harris’s policy agenda look like? What are the values he pushes for and how does he plan on improving citizens’ lives? The current trend, where Fine Gael banks excessively on social media presence, pays no heed to these concerns.
That said, Harris has to eventually disclose his stance to the electorate and the manner in which his policies will enhance their lives, particularly younger adults grappling with the housing crisis and middle-aged individuals feeling the financial pinch.
Leo Varadkar’s tenure in the government was marked by a certain intrigue. His repeated demand for a reduction in income tax – complete abolition of USC, proposing a fresh 30% tax rate – often appeared discordant with his team’s views, or at least more radical. In reality, whilst the threshold for the higher 40% income tax rate has been raised, the lion’s share of additional resources during successive budgets have been directed toward increased state spending. The state continues to grow in response to the deficiencies in healthcare and housing along with broader demands of establishing public services for an expanding population.
Political backing for a leaner state and markedly reduced taxes for early risers is rapidly diminishing, further undermined by Sinn Féin’s successful argument for intensified government intervention to address public issues. A surge in corporate tax has permitted the government to hike spending, improve the budget surplus, make minor concessions in income tax, and in the latest budget, broaden the universal cost of living assistance for households. Challenging issues about funding a larger state lie ahead, but surprisingly, Irish politics chooses to avoid confronting these until it becomes absolutely necessary.
Ascertaining Harris’s future policy moves poses quite the conundrum, not least when discussing the forthcoming budget, which should precede the general elections if the Coalition endures. An important indicator will be the continued tenure of Paschal Donohoe as Minister for Public Expenditure. There have been somewhat begrudging briefings from sources allegedly associated with Harris, suggesting that Donohoe’s influential Eurogroup presidency makes his removal virtually impossible.
A more convincing justification might be Donohoe’s expertise at formulating budgets and how he has, alongside Fianna Fáil Minister for Finance Michael McGrath, provided a solid core for the government. Donohoe’s prominence will be instrumental if Fine Gael intends to project an image of public financial stability ahead of the next general elections, as a counterpoint to any potentially detrimental measures expected from Sinn Féin. His vast knowledge of erratic issues facing Ireland from a global and European perspective will undoubtedly be essential when making critical decisions. This shouldn’t be overlooked merely in favour of injecting new blood.
Harris revealing his policy programme will certainly be a noteworthy event – it will shed light on his actual intentions. His previous tenures, in health and more recently in higher education, may not provide substantial pointers, but have indeed shown his ability to secure funds and to assist parents by reducing university fees. He has announced a financial plan for higher education, however, executing it is yet to be accomplished. As per the available information, Harris doesn’t exhibit a penchant for tax cuts, akin to Leo. Instead, he is likely to concentrate more on expenditure plans.
The current administration is running out of time and it would be prudent, if not justifiable, to concentrate on a few key areas in the remaining months. The incoming Prime Minister would not want his regime to be viewed as a mere continuation of the previous one, however, to a large extent, it will be. He will need to determine the central tenets of his approach in the forthcoming general election – a distinguishing element of the Fine Gael party. This is no simple task. What can the party pledge to genuinely resolve the challenges the public are facing or remedy the disconnect between an economy with strong headline figures yet wrestling with a housing crisis, causing substantial fractions of the population to feel alienated, along with insufficient public amenities, particularly in healthcare?
Certainly, Harris could inject new life into a government that appears drained, but can he bring innovative thoughts? If not, Fine Gael run the risk post a short-lived upturn in the survey statistics, of the electorate concluding that there are no novel solutions to address their particular apprehensions. Does the Harris charisma have any substance?
Making a pitch for Harris won’t be a simple endeavour. He must convince the electorate that Fine Gael is capable of maintaining economic stability. Their track record provides a foundation for this, although the party’s reputation could be harmed if the government attempts to sway the election by, for instance, continuing universal living cost supports for another year, despite a decrease in inflation. This decision will be pivotal and challenging. Interestingly, the Government has already confined itself in the budget by passing new legislation, approved by the cabinet this week, which essentially reallocates more than €6 billion to two new investment funds.
Importantly, the government also needs to reassure voters that it can actually deliver in a more efficient manner – constructing homes, enhancing healthcare services, generating additional educational spaces, and so forth. After a 13-year tenure, convincing the electorate that Fine Gael possesses the necessary zeal, motivation, and fresh concepts to accelerate progress might be a challenge for Harris. This, however, will form the crux of the upcoming general election. How can the benefits of a robust economy be expanded to a larger demographic?