Before the dawn of Thursday, while the initial morning news was yet to unfurl, a strategy had already been established. Leo Varadkar’s unexpected resignation may have caught most of Fine Gael unawares, but the prospective leaders rapidly mobilised behind the scenes, instantly engaging in phone discussions.
Despite public assertions from Fine Gael members that the day belonged to Varadkar and was not an occasion for internal politics, behind closed doors they were discreetly pledging allegiance to their chosen successors. By Wednesday evening, an outline of Thursday’s proceedings began to form. Insider information from Simon Harris’s faction revealed that he had the backing of a minimum of 20 parliamentary party members by Wednesday evening, a scenario which precisely unfolded the following morning.
Paschal Donohoe, en route to an assignment in Dundalk on Thursday, mentioned in passing when questioned about his potential candidacy that it was “somewhat premature for such matters”. Simon Harris appeared poised to take on the Fine Gael leadership, with McEntee, Donohoe and Humphreys withdrawing from contention.
Proponents of Heather Humphreys disclosed that she was keeping her plans close to her chest for the time being, while Simon Coveney had pre-emptively withdrawn from the contest. Then, unexpectedly, Helen McEntee announced on LMFM that she was not competing, having resolved the previous year that she would bide her time should a sudden vacancy arise. Despite being asked to name her choice of leader, she chose not to disclose it.
The way was clear for Harris; Senator Barry Ward was the first to formally throw his support behind him in the Fine Gael parliamentary party. Minister of State Neale Richmond swiftly followed, proclaiming to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland that it was the right moment for a considerable shift and a rejuvenation both within the party and the administration. He praised Harris’s dynamism and expertise as key to spearheading this change, while dismissing suggestions of a deliberate strategy to deter potential competitors.
By 8:20am, Harris was already halfway to attaining the crucial six signature endorsement necessary to launch his candidacy. Just thirty minutes later, he officially became the first aspirant to secure those vital signatures, having gained the support of Senators Michael Conway and Micheal Cariggy, along with MEP Maria Walsh.
Nominations officially started at 10am, and he had already garnered the support of 15 members of the parliamentary party, including endorsements from Kerry TD Brendan Griffin, Sligo Leitrim TD Frank Feighan and MEP Frances Fitzgerald. As lunchtime approached, Harris’ backing from the parliamentary party had increased to 23 members.
Drawing inspiration from Varadkar’s “shock and awe” strategy, Harris has undeniably mirrored his approach. During the 2017 Fine Gael leadership contest, Varadkar’s campaign team had masterminded a notable sequence of revelations, securing him a 37 to 17 lead against his competitor, Coveney, among parliamentary party members. This meant that the contest was leaning heavily in his favour from the outset.
For Donohoe and Humphreys, each new endorsement and pronouncement made the competition increasingly difficult. The power of carefully orchestrated public declarations, which bring in strategic votes followed by the more reserved batch, was clearly evident. Case in point, shortly before midday, McEntee made an appearance on Newstalk announcing her support for Harris, becoming the first key cabinet member to back him. Subsequently, Donohoe and Humphreys conceded the race.
Close observers of Harris are convinced that he has been meticulously preparing for this day over the past couple of years, gradually solidifying backing from each tier of the party. Having outmaneuvered his rivals with a protracted strategy, Harris is potentially on track to becoming the next taoiseach of Ireland.