In 2016, Donald Trump, a public figure known for his bold statements, famously said, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.” This statement, though humorous in nature, held some truth to it. Owing to their unwavering loyalty, Trump’s hardcore supporters have stood by him despite allegations of 91 criminal charges and countless inflammatory or crude remarks that would have likely ruined traditional politicians.
Nonetheless, while Trump’s assertiveness may not result in a loss of followers, it is speculated that an assassination attempt on him, which only resulted in minor injuries, might sway the presidential election markedly in his favour. The failed assassination attempt over the weekend saw a rise in speculations favouring Trump’s chances. In the opinion of the esteemed polling analyst, Nate Silver, these occurrences could potentially amplify sympathy for Trump. He believes that those American citizens who despise both the candidates might now be inclined more towards Trump.
It might be reasonable for a regular politician to anticipate an outpouring of sympathy votes following surviving an assassination attempt. However, Trump is an exceedingly divisive individual. The millions of voters vehemently against Trump are unlikely to change their stance, irrespective of the appalling assassination attempt. Therefore, the private concerns of some Democrats about the election being virtually “over”, seems somewhat neagative.
Trump’s recent speech at the Republican convention, where he plans to accept his party’s nomination, plays a crucial part in the grand scheme of things. His call for tranquillity and national unity on social media serves to be a well-thought-out move for his campaign and his nation. Should Trump resort to his divisive, revenge-fuelled rhetoric, he may spur passions that could potentially deter some undecided voters. In this context, the cohort of swing voters remains small in the US, and while Trump’s undeterred spirit post the failed assassination attempt might inspire some, it could deter others if the Republican convention showcases too much anger.
The Trump team is likely to capitalise on the recent assassination attempt, using it to emphasise two principal narratives of their campaign – resilience and persecution. However, retribution, which is another theme Trump is known to favour, seems to be one that he has difficulty overlooking. At a political gathering the previous year, he declared, “I am your knight. I am your arbiter of justice. For those who have been wronged and deceived, I am your vengeance.”
Trump’s supporters, including Senator JD Vance of Ohio, a potential mate for a Trump administration, are implicating the Democrats in the attack on him. They claim that the hostile political environment nurtured by the Biden campaign resulted in the assassination attempt on President Trump.
There may be some truth in the Republicans’ sense of persecution. Several former Trump assistants, such as Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, are currently in prison for refusing to give testimony before Congress. Sentencing for Trump’s payment of hush money to an adult film actress is still awaited.
Conversely, Republicans insisting that Democrats propagate political violence represents a strategic attempt to muffle the primary argument of the Biden campaign—that Trump aspires to be a tyrant and perpetually endangers American democracy.
This move might temporarily destabilise the Democrats. Following the shooting, the Biden campaign withdrew their promotional material. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely that the Democrats will completely abandon their key contention. The attempt on Trump’s life doesn’t imply that his conspiring to undermine the 2020 presidential election is now non-existent, nor does it suggest that referencing the incursion of the Capitol by Trump’s followers on January 6th, 2021, would be inappropriate.
In reality, grasping the variation between the events of January 6th and last weekend’s assault on Trump’s life is pivotal. Innocent lives were lost at both events. However, on January 6th, the mob that invaded the Capitol was spurred on directly by Trump. In stark contrast, neither Biden nor his consultation team has ever incited violence or declined to acknowledge the results of an election.
The majority of Americans have already formed their opinions about the Capitol siege and about Trump. It’s doubtful that the attempted assassination over the weekend will bring about any changes in those assessments.
In stark contrast, last month’s television clash between Biden and Trump did offer fresh insights to a significant number of voters. Biden’s disorganised showing triggered more uncertainties about his suitability for another term in office. Despite calls for his resignation in favour of a rejuvenated and more incisive candidate, Biden is holding firm, with support from his family and close allies. Those demands were gaining traction prior to the assassination attempt on Trump.
The campaign to have Biden replaced as the Democratic nominee might now lose steam as the president and his supporters contend that this isn’t the appropriate moment to inflict an additional jolt on the American structure. Nevertheless, as time is fast depleting, the Democrats are unable to let this matter slip. The countdown has started with a mere five weeks left until their convention in Chicago.
Biden’s frailty, as opposed to the assassination attempt on Trump, continues to appear as the most likely determining factor in the 2024 election.
– The Financial Times Limited 2024 Copyright.