Airlines are bracing for potential flight cancellations at Dublin Airport due to a dispute over its annual passenger limit of 32 million. The recent preliminary decision by An Bord Pleanála might stand in the way of attempts to increase this contentious cap. The stipulation to restrict Dublin Airport to 32 million passengers annually was set in 2007 by planners, in exchange for permitting its operator, the DAA, to construct an additional terminal. Consequently, expected reductions in seating availability could exceed one million next year, with plane capacities potentially strained during the rush of the summer months.
Ryanair, one of the two primary carriers at Dublin, has confirmed early deductions in services from the nation’s largest airport this winter, some of which may continue next summer. The airline has already decided to eliminate 14 routes from Dublin during the October to March season, following regulations that restrict airlines to 13 million seats to ensure compliance with the cap limit. This includes journeys to Asturias, Castellon, and Santiago in Spain, Carcassonne in France, Leipzig and Nuremberg in Germany, Palanga in Lithuania, and the Romanian cities Sibiu and Suceava.
Ryanair has confirmed its plan to remove all 14 routes for the winter season, warning that it may be unable to reinstate them all by summer 2025. The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) proposed to set a cap of 25.2 million seats for airlines at Dublin Airport next summer to ensure they stay within the 32 million limit.
Meanwhile, Aer Lingus, another key player at Dublin Airport, stated it was still evaluating the effects of the IAA’s draft plan to reduce capacity for summer 2025. It also stated that it would participate in the consultation process on the proposal. Should this proposed limit be ratified in the near future, the IAA anticipates that there would be “little, if any,” capacity for offering new takeoff and landing slots at Dublin next year.
Those with knowledge of the airline industry predict that travellers will be limited to a small number of new flight paths in the coming year, due to the current cap hindering the expansion of existing services from Dublin Airport. It has been highlighted that airlines are expected to scale back on the number of flights for certain routes, especially those with numerous daily schedules. This contraction could potentially lead to a rise in fares due to reduced availability. Furthermore, these sources highlight that this issue could have extensive implications as airlines typically formulate their plans years in advance, meaning the Dublin Airport’s growth could be inhibited until the cap is raised or entirely removed.
Recently, a provisional ruling from the Irish planning board, An Bord Pleanála, regarding noise restriction for airplanes at Dublin airport, might act as a roadblock in the quest of Fingal County Council to escalate the passenger cap. The board’s interim ban proposes a decrease in the number of nighttime flights from the 36,000 recorded in 2023 to a mere 13,000 annually. This significant reduction equates to nearly two-thirds.
DAA, over the weekend, admitted that this regulation complicates their task to submit additional details to Fingal County Council by November 15th. This information is in reference to an application the company made last year to elevate the passenger limit to 40 million. DAA also revealed this has added difficulties to their proposal of applying for temporary permission to increase the cap to 36 million before last year’s petition is reviewed by the council. DAA is currently grappling with the intricacies of both issues.
Worry is escalating within the tourism sector over how the ongoing controversy is impacting businesses as well as affecting Ireland’s stature as a holiday hotspot. One observer voiced the general consensus, stating, “this is a political matter that ultimately requires a political solution.”