The day Ukrainian forces made their incursion into the Kursk region of Russia, the story of a small group of around 40 individuals, predominantly comprising women, was captured on film. “We’ve been left to fend for ourselves. Without any shelter or finances, and with children terrified of closing their eyes at night,” expressed a teary-eyed woman.
The evening of 6 August saw this footage being shared on a Telegram channel titled, “Our Home Sudzha”. This was long after Ukraine’s unexpected attack had kicked off more than 10 hours prior, with claims of capturing some parts of Sudzha.
“No evacuations taking place in Sudzha. Ordinary people risk everything to cross rivers by boat and traverse forests, all whilst under attack. Please, help them evacuate,” pleaded another woman in the footage. Several locals managed to escape to Kursk, the provincial capital, amidst relentless bombardment and drone attacks. Speaking to The Financial Times, they disclosed that in the beginning of the attack, there was no organised method of evacuation. Many people took off under whatever circumstances they could, often having to leave behind their possessions, important documentation, and in certain instances, even incapacitated family members and pets.
In the aftermath, Russian officials arranged for evacuation of people living near the border. Reportedly, over 200,000 individuals have since been moved to safer locations, inclusive of territories in Ukraine under occupation.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken over Sudzha, which contains a transit station belonging to one of the last operational gas pipelines leading to central Europe.
In respects to casualties, it was confirmed by Russian officials on Wednesday that there were 12 fatalities and 120 injuries although the actual figures were believed to be considerably higher. Liza Alert, an NGO that assists in locating missing persons, reported hundreds of people unaccounted for in the Kursk region. The youngest among these was only 11 months old, and the oldest was 101.
Evgeny Bakalo, an inhabitant of the neighbouring Belgorod region that shares a border with Ukraine, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday post being subjected to heightened drone and missile attacks. Bakalo, serving as a volunteer in support of civilians in Kursk, iterated “We must categorize this as a war, a complete military operation, and not label it counterterrorism or a special military operation. That’s misleading.” The latter mentioned is the Kremlin’s prescribed term for the war in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian advancement, the most significant seizure of Russian land since World War II, is portrayed by the majority of Moscow’s state-run media as a “terrorist onslaught”, “military operation” or simply the “circumstances in the borderlands of Kursk”.
Yet, in the initial stages of the offensive, Russia’s state response remained largely unexpressed. The Russian security service, the FSB, announced that the military had reacted to what they termed an “armed incitement”. State-affiliated media refrained from reporting on the event. Consequently, due to internet outages affecting numerous areas close to the border, locals were left in an information void.
An elderly man in a black top video-addressed Russian president Vladimir Putin, pleading him to instruct his officials to accurately report the prevailing circumstances. He contended that the distortions were resulting in civilian casualties. Putin only referred to the offensive on the second day, employing euphemisms such as “that situation” and “large-scale incitement”. He has since accused Ukraine of attempting to capture land with the intention of using it as a negotiation tool in future peace discussions.
Putin’s delayed reaction mirrored his response to the Kursk submarine sinking in August 2000 where the full crew perished. Despite being alerted of the disaster a day following the event, he chose to vacation before arriving at the scene six days later. Ekaterina Schulmann, a scholar at the Carnegie Eurasia Center in Berlin, notes Putin’s established tendency to remove himself from the public spotlight during critical situations, suggesting he favours a cautious, observing approach. She questions how long one can dismiss the external reality in an autocratic system.
Schulmann shares that Putin is attempting to maintain a “hibernation” state among the citizenry regarding the current Ukrainian offensive, so as not to cause alarm. Conversely to the residents of the Belgorod region who have become well-accustomed to Ukraine’s frequent attacks, Elena Koneva, a Russian sociologist and pioneer of the ExtremeScan survey project, stated that the inhabitants of the Kursk region were taken by surprise.
Prior to the onset of the Ukrainian offensive, almost 80 per cent of the inhabitants of Belgorod were involved in charitable endeavours, 10 per cent participated in regional defensive operations, while 17 per cent offered assistance in healthcare facilities,” she remarked. In contrast, these percentages are three to four times lesser in the Kursk region.
Furthermore, she highlighted that the residents of the Belgorod region had the opportunity to adjust to the wartime situation. A newfound sense of solidarity among them began to emerge, and official surveys have reported burgeoning support for the war within the region.
Conversely, a survey by OpenMinds, a medium engaged in assessing English-Ukrainian public dialogue, found that pro-war sentiment had seen a downward shift, from -0.25 to -0.47 in a span of a week, on a scale where -1 denotes an extremely negative attitude towards the conflict and 1 portrays a highly positive stand.
Sviatoslav Hnizdovskyi, the CEO of OpenMinds, commented that there has been an evident dip in enthusiastic posts about the war, with a marked increase in criticisms aimed at the Russian administration, the defence ministry included, and local representatives.
Translating the experience of Bakalo, a local volunteer from Belgorod, he reported that the locals in his home region are warmly extending their hospitality to the soldiers by offering them shelter, sustenance, and other necessities, including laundry and bathhouses.
However, the response in the Kursk region is expected to deviate significantly, Koneva pointed out. She further elaborated that the idea of being driven out is highly distressing, particularly for post-Soviet people with deep attachments to their assets that took great effort to amass.
Bakalo observed that inhabitants of bordering regions felt more threatened due to their close proximity to Ukraine, and hence, were less taken aback than those in Moscow when troops started flooding across the border. In jest, he mentioned, “The defence ministry appeared to be the only ones oblivious to this.”
During a recent discussion with the bordering regions’ authorities, Putin abruptly interrupted Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region when he started to discuss the death toll and the seizure of Russian territory by Ukraine. Putin redirected Smirnov to concentrate on the “socio-economic situation”. This incident led to a buzz in the Z-community, a network of multiple pro-war Russian Telegram channels which boast a cumulative audience of several million people.
Ivan Philippov, a Russian analyst observing the actions of bloggers who support the war, stated that reactions were mixed upon Putin’s admonishment of Smirnov. Some were satisfied that Putin held Smirnov accountable, while others were glad to see that the president finally recognised the depth of the problem.
These zealous bloggers attribute deceit at every level as the main cause for the incursion into Ukraine and cast the responsibility onto the Russian defence ministry alongside its senior general, Valery Gerasimov, for failures in intelligence, according to Philippov.
Regardless of the circumstances, Putin has managed to shield himself from any critique thus far. Philippov added, “The pro-war bloggers are discontent about a lot of things, yet for them, Putin still retains his inviolable status.” This text is protected under the copyright of The Financial Times Limited 2024.