In the wake of the suspicious death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, in a mysterious plane explosion a year ago, Russian mercenaries have shown a significant increase in their activities across Africa, as indicated by recent data.
The Armed Conflict Locations and Event Data (Acled), an American group that monitors conflict, reported that from September 2023 to June 2024, the Russian forces in Africa demonstrated heightened levels of aggression, the likes of which had not been seen since the start of their records in 2018.
Acled’s data showed a particular surge of violence in the final three months of 2023, with almost 180 instances of political violence involving the fighters of the Wagner Group, as opposed to around 90 incidents in the previous quarter.
Prigozhin, aged 63, was a long-term supporter of President Vladimir Putin until he led an unsuccessful revolt against Putin in June 2023; the fallout was a result of a disagreement with Russian generals over the deployment of his forces in the Ukraine conflict.
The dispute with the generals led to Prigozhin’s troops posing a threat to Russian land, advancing a military convoy towards Moscow, but Prigozhin terminated the advance after a few days. The leader of the paramilitary group and a number of high-ranking officers met a tragic end on 23rd August 2023 when their private aircraft exploded mid-air for unexplained reasons, crashing in a field near Moscow.
Ladd Serwat, Acled’s specialist on Africa, stated in a recent report on Russian mercenaries in Africa, that Prigozhin’s death had led to speculation that Moscow would disband the Wagner Group and push its fighters to retire or join the Russian military. The reality, however, was different.
According to Serwat, Putin’s dealing with the group, already rebranded as Africa Corp in certain African nations, was unique. Despite significant changes in its leadership and country-based management, the situation on the ground varied significantly across different countries.
“We’ve noticed new contracts being awarded to fighters under a revamped paramilitary framework, alongside the allocation of other contracts to smaller private military companies in the area. Apparently, Russia is trying to prevent any one entity from gathering too much strength and becoming threatening, like the Wagner Group had under Prigozhin,” Serwat further elaborated.
As per the information gathered by Acled, the Wagner Group, a military organisation, has seen a rise in its operations across Africa due to its alliance with the ruling military in Mali who are engaged in a conflict against rebellious Tuareg separatists in the north of the country.
Moreover, it has been determined that the Wagner Group is involved in political unrest across seven nations, including Chad, Mali, Libya, Mozambique, Mauritania, Central African Republic, and Sudan. It has been stated by Serwat that Russian private military establishments have additionally sent troops to Niger and Burkina Faso following the death of Prigozhin.
It is of importance to note that Russia’s government has recently started to publicly assert the country’s mercenary activities in Africa, a stark contrast to its previous denials regarding its association with the Wagner Group during Prigozhin’s tenure. In the context of the newly named Africa Corp, Serwat suggests, it has essentially transformed into a more straightforward arm of the Russian Ministry of Defense, with Russia openly acknowledging its contributions towards funding it. It appears that Africa Corp is honing its focus on security and military procedures.
Serwat anticipates an extension of the influence of Russia’s private military businesses in Africa, particularly within territories where they have already established a base of their operations. There is an expectancy to witness the Wagner Group/Africa Corps mentoring governmental forces in Burkina Faso and Niger within the following six months to a year. This could potentially lead to a direct involvement in conflict, he predicted.