Russia has successfully fortified its recent territorial wins in the eastern parts of Ukraine and is attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defense lines ahead of the arrival of awaited US military support. Russian forces had made advancements near the city of Avdiivka on Sunday where they laid claim to two localities and broadened a limited passage around the rural commune of Ocheretyne, which fell into Russian hands seven days earlier. Ukrainian security officers described the circumstances in the Donbas region, which Russia is assaulting from multiple sides, as intensely challenging. But, they iterated, it was “not of critical or catastrophic nature”.
Russian forces launched an unexpected attack in Ocheretyne, allowing Russian troops to dodge a chain of Ukrainian trenches and set up an advanced position. They subsequently overpowered neighbouring communities, Solovyove and Novokalynove, and are striving to progress farther westward. Ukraine’s eastern command reported that they retained control of two-thirds of Ocheretyne, which was a heated battleground.
Following the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces, Russia managed to capture Avdiivka in February. Russian forces have been on the offensive since then. Russian brigades, stationed northwest of Avdiivka, have gotten about 18 miles (30km) close to Pokrovsk city, a notable Ukrainian military base. Further northward, they are assailing the town of Chasiv Yar, close to Bakhmut, employing airdropped glide bombs to strike Ukrainian positions.
A senior security officer in Kyiv said on Sunday, “The current situation isn’t critical or catastrophic. But, it’s quite severe.” The officer estimated it would take approximately “one to two months” for US military aid, $61 billion (€57 billion), to reach frontline soldiers and equip them to repel Russian attacks. Some weapons, like 155mm artillery ammunition, were anticipated to arrive earlier, officials hinted.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), stated that the Kremlin aims to utilise a window of opportunity before the arrival of US aid. Moscow has been deploying additional forces and enjoys a thrice-fold advantage in certain sectors. Their recent strategic victories signal an audacious plan to surround the Ukrainian stronghold cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk for a summer onslaught. However, it remains uncertain whether Russia will succeed in this endeavour. The ISW last week expressed doubts over Russia overpowering Ukrainian defenses.
The forthcoming arrival of American assistance enables Ukrainian forces to alleviate their current equipment shortages and counteract the escalating Russian offensive actions. Notwithstanding extended aggression, security experts maintain the initial war objectives of Vladimir Putin remain intact, which encompass capturing major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa in addition to the southern Black Sea coastal territory of Ukraine. They conclude Russia has no capacity to overrun Kharkiv, a populous city situated near the Russian border, but predict continuous aerial assaults and threats.
Over the next few months, the situation is projected as critical by insiders. Ukranian personnel express frustration at being considerably outmatched in firepower, with Russia capable of discharging six rounds for each single retaliatory round by Ukraine. Supplies of old Soviet anti-aircraft missiles expired a while back, providing Russian aircraft unimpeded operations near the Ukrainian front line. Furthermore, Ukraine has a lesser count of tanks and armoured vehicles.
Moscow recurrently aimed at Ukraine’s infrastructure in the recent past. A missile assault last Saturday severely impacted power facilities across central and western Ukraine. The largest private power firm in the country, DTEK, affirmed damage to four out of its six thermal power plants. Rescue teams quenched fires at energy units in West Ukrainian regions of Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk as per the company’s statement.
A heat-generating station and hotel in the southern port city of Mykolaiv were damaged by Russian drones early Sunday, the regional governor Vitaliy Kim reported. Russia rationalized these as aiming English-speaking mercenaries, a description previously used to defend missile strikes on Kharkiv-based hotels wherein numerous local as well as foreign journalists were hurt.
Russia reportedly brought down 17 opponent drones within its territorial borders. Reports, albeit uncorroborated, suggested ATACMS long-range missiles recently supplied by the US were used by the Ukraine military to hit a Russian air defense unit at Cape Tarkhankut along Crimea’s western coast. Previous and more recent attacks on the Dzhankoye based airfield and Russian missile system have triggered explosions in the northern Crimean town.
Regular assaults on Crimea are executed by Ukraine’s military forces, which have successfully utilised maritime drones to evict the Russian Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol port. Intelligence reports suggest plans to annihilate the road and railway bridge linking the seized peninsula to Russia.
Lithuania’s previous Foreign Minister, Linas Linkevičius, humorously suggested that the bridge would disappear shortly on social media platform X, encouraging anyone who hadn’t yet immortalised it in a photo to do so promptly, accompanied by images of a missile and a thoughtful Putin.
Moscow’s reaction was far from amused. Dmitry Polyansky, the UN representative for Russia, criticised Linkevičius, labelling him as a “pliable Baltic servant of the USA”. The Russian diplomat further threatened the ex-minister, currently Sweden’s ambassador from Lithuania, predicting he would regret his mocking comments come the “day of reckoning”.