The only two teams that have managed to defeat Manchester City in any tournament this season are Arsenal, back in October, and Aston Villa in December, both victories taking place in the Premier League. The subsequent games for City are quite coincidentally against these same two teams, again in the Premier League.
Indeed, some may find reason for optimism in this sequence, however, City’s losses to Arsenal and Villa took place in London and Birmingham, respectively. The corresponding games are scheduled to be played in Manchester. First up is Arsenal this Sunday at the Etihad Stadium, a venue where they last tasted victory in January 2015. Aston Villa, whose last league victory here dates back to 2007, are up next on the following Wednesday.
Historic data may be momentarily cast aside at the start of the game, but in this case, such records seem to confirm that neither team performs exceptionally well when playing up north. This history includes the recent era under Pep Guardiola. The 8th season of Guardiola’s tenure in east Manchester shows no signs of losing relevance. Since their defeat at Villa, City have engaged in 21 matches, along with two games in Fifa’s Club World Cup in Saudi Arabia. They are currently ranked third in the Premier League with a point difference keeping them from the top, and have made it to the semi-finals of the FA Cup and the quarter-finals of the Champions League. A year ago, City claimed a treble through these competitions, and it’s quite plausible they might do it again.
As the highly thrilling Premier League title race continues between three formidable teams, it may seem predictable and lack excitement to count on City, but they are the favourites for multiple reasons. Simply stating, if City wins all of their 10 remaining fixtures to accumulate a total of 93 points, Arsenal will no longer be in the running for the title and Liverpool would need to triumph in their remaining 10 games. Even a single drawn game would mean the maximum points Liverpool can reach is 92.
Does City have what it takes to win all their remaining matches? Based on last year’s performance during the same period where City won 10 consecutive matches, there’s every possibility they could. This streak exerted pressure on other teams, leading to Arsenal’s collapse against Nottingham Forest and enabled City to secure their third consecutive title with three games to spare. This gave City the chance to concentrate on the FA Cup and Champions League finals, emerging victorious in both.
During City’s victorious Premier League run, they dominated Arsenal 4-1 in Manchester, leading 3-0 just 54 minutes into the game. Reflecting on this, Mikel Arteta, Arsenal’s coach, candidly admitted that Arsenal was “at our level, not their level”.
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The status of City, especially in significant games like the previous Manchester derby, is known. But the odds of them securing a win in all 10 games is not as promising as it was a year earlier. In the latest league match – against Liverpool – City athletes were seen aimlessly kicking the ball in the latter half of the game, an unfortunate tactic usually implemented by their rivals.
Arsenal, nonetheless, has shown improvement compared to the previous year. How much improvement is yet to be seen, but if Declan Rice succeeds in implementing a defensive midfield strategy that secures a draw for Gunners on Sunday, his transfer fee will be further validated. This will instil confidence in Arsenal, keeping them a single point clear of City, thus hindering City’s chance to score 93 points.
The psychological aspect of this points reduction should not be ignored. Villa, who should be more confident than hopeful when playing against Wolves at their home ground on Saturday, could gain momentum in their climactic match against Manchester in their quest for Champions League football in the upcoming season. Even two ties, not necessarily two losses, will reduce City’s potential overall score to 89 points.
Before City’s stunning victory over Sheffield United at Bramall Lane earlier this month, Arsenal’s Arteta conjectured that “achieving less than 90 points would make it significantly challenging” to clinch the top spot. The recent performances of City and Liverpool substantiate his claim. Although his prediction might also be off the mark. This is the first time in ten years that three teams are vying for the title, resulting in unforeseeable outcomes.
Upon playing against Arsenal and Villa, City’s next encounter will be with Crystal Palace the following Saturday. But an encounter with Real Madrid away three days later will likely be a more pressing concern. City defeated them 5-1 in total last May, but this year, Madrid appears more advanced, similar to Arsenal.
Though it may sound like an obligatory insertion of crisis into the remaining games, the existence of the potential outcomes and uncertainties explicit something of the existing pressure at the top during City’s pursuit for an unmatched fourth consecutive league title.”
Guardiola and his supreme team kick off their first match among four in a span of just ten days versus Arsenal, a ten-day stretch that can massively impact their season. The last time Arsenal emerged victorious at this venue, the first goal scorer was Santi Cazorla, against Joe Hart, memories of a different era for certain. The time was when Arsène Wenger was in command, a period far in the past.
The Arsenal of the new era, which has impressed in recent games by hitting six goals against West Ham and Sheffield United, five against Palace and Burnley, and four against Newcastle, still have to validate they have the calibre to reach City’s standard. A strong performance on Sunday would be a sign they have what it takes.
However, City could rightly highlight that Arsenal also made it to the Champions League’s last eight, due to face off against Bayern Munich. In current circumstances, Arsenal have eight fixtures over a 26-day period in April, ending with a trip to Tottenham. Tottenham, with lighter commitments, could still be in contention at this stage.
Predictions are challenging to make, given the variables of chance, injuries, VAR decisions, and form. When City hints at Arsenal about Spurs, the Gunners might retort that City also must travel to Tottenham, where they have yet to claim a league victory under Guardiola’s reign.
Liverpool, possibly feeling slightly overlooked at this point, will also stir things up against Spurs, although at Anfield. Before the commencement of the City-Arsenal match, Jürgen Klopp’s mixed squad of emerging and veteran talent will host Brighton at this venue, a chance to sway perceptions in favour of them, especially if Liverpool claim a win.
Klopp and his team also face their European campaign, which includes challenging away fixtures, such as Everton and Villa. Aiding their endeavour would be improving their clean sheet record in the league in 2024 – currently two clean sheets from nine games. Arsenal, in contrast, have secured four clean sheets from eight games. However, Arsenal’s subsequent five away games consist of opponents in the top nine positions now.
As we enter April, the unpredictability surrounding this season’s outcome is an exhilarating phenomenon and should be appreciated. If May witnesses another City march to victory, the narrative will become repetitive and lacklustre, a sentiment likely echoed more than 115 times.