The triumphant reformist Masoud Pezeshkian in the Iranian presidential election stirs anticipations for alterations domestically and regionally.
However, potential adjustments may lead to conflicts with the disliked church-led establishment. Iran’s supreme authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expressed that Pezeshkian’s role is to follow the course set by the extremely conservative president Ebrahim Raisi, who tragically died in a helicopter accident in May.
In last Friday’s second round of elections, Pezeshkian accumulated 53.7 per cent of the vote, whereas his opponent, the strict traditionalist Saeed Jalili, amassed 44.3 per cent. The 69-year-old heart surgeon and independent MP, Pezeshkian, is due to be formally sworn in on August 5th.
The increase in voter turnout to almost 50 per cent, an improvement from the 40 per cent in the initial round on June 28th, is what largely contributed to Pezeshkian’s triumph. In the latter round, individuals who initially abstained cast their votes for him.
Those who voted for Pezeshkian eagerly anticipate delivery on his campaign assurances. Domestically, he pledged to mend the profound division between the citizens and the regime led by clergy-appointed and elected officials. To the needy, he extended promises of tax reductions and freely provided healthcare. To the female population, he promised to restrain the forceful execution of traditional clothing norms.
Pezeshkian is dedicated to improving relations with Iran’s Arabic neighbours, who were eager about his electoral victory. Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who was among the first to extend his congratulations, voiced his desire for stronger ties between the two nations.
In terms of foreign policy, Pezeshkian supports the recommencement of discussions to re-establish the 2015 agreement which offered to limit Iran’s nuclear programme in return for removing sanctions. These sanctions have damaged Iran’s economy since the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018.
However, Pezeshkian’s influence over the police and the traditionalist-dominated parliament will be limited, moreover, he will have no influence on the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who support the “resistance front” made up of Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hizbullah, Iraqi Shia militias, and Yemeni Houthis.
The cabinet of Pezeshkian is expected to be heavily influenced by reformists. Among his possible appointments is Mohammad Javad Zarif, the previous foreign minister, who is a close confidant. Abbas Araghchi, a former nuclear negotiator, may assume the role of foreign minister. Additionally, Ali Tayebnia, the former commerce minister, has been suggested for the role of an economy minister aiming to implement free market reforms. These reforms, however, are anticipated to face opposition from the reportedly poorly-managed, state-owned and controlled portion of the economy.
The materialisation of Pezeshkian’s policies and nominations hinges on approval from Khamenei and the Guardian Council, the body responsible for vetting all official position nominations. Ex-presidents with reformist views, Mohammed Khatami (1999-2005) and Hassan Rouhani (2013-2021), were unsuccessful in implementing crucial domestic reforms, which could have provided relief to a currently struggling regime.