When possible, I try to eschew the weather forecast. Even though my job is significantly influenced by whether the upcoming days will have a stormy or sunny weather, my overall mood is better maintained in an uncertain yet hopeful optimism, instead of acknowledging the imminent gloomy day.
Evidently, I am at a certain drawback due to my lack of knowledge. Foreseeing the weather patterns for the next few days is influential, whilst predicting the weather pattern for the upcoming decades feels like possessing a supernatural ability. For roles that hinge on weather conditions, having access to as much relevant data as possible is not just a beneficial approach but also crucial for sustained success.
Over the past couple of decades, John Sweeney, a scientist from Maynooth, has been a consistent contributor to the media. Never seen as someone who would boastfully say, “I told you so”, I find myself saying these words on his behalf.
Since the early 2000s, Sweeney, along with his team of researchers, has consistently pointed out a high probability of significant climate changes drastically altering our temperature and weather patterns like rainfall, sunshine, and storms. Through their research papers, which projected a rapidly warming climate’s impact on Ireland’s weather patterns, they portrayed a forecast that was starkly unlike what we were accustomed to.
The recent spell of harsh and wet weather should not astonish us; predictions were already given. The pivotal role that swift’s play in our city lives can be preserved with our help. The degradation of Ireland’s mountains require immediate measures to prevent further damage. The restoration of nature calls for the unpleasant task of eradicating rhododendrons.
Summers would become hotter, introducing higher risks of drought; winters would be longer, accompanied by abundant rainfall and fewer frosty days. The potato, a commercially valuable crop, is likely to become unviable, and the green fields would gradually begin to turn brown due to dry summers. A 2008 paper summarises it aptly: “The Irish who sense the weather has altered in their life span are not uttering baseless statements: Their sporadic observations are supported by scientific evaluation.”
Farmers’ livelihoods are greatly influenced by precise and knowledgeable forecasts, not just of daily weather, but also long-term patterns and multi-year averages influenced by climate change. The reliance of agriculture on weather conditions is total. Take, for instance, the dairy industry, which relies heavily on grass – a cost-effective feed for cows – but the growth of grass is greatly affected if the weather is too cold, wet, dry or hot, despite ample fertilisation. A lack of future awareness puts farmers’ systems at a long-term financial risk.
One might expect that in the agri-food sector, especially among those in high-ranking positions, there would be a rush to ensure farmers were well-informed about scientific predictions. However, in 2010, when the government-supported, industry-driven expansion plan, ‘Food Harvest 2020’ was released – backed by significant public funding – it failed to focus on the most urgent farming issue: the scientific models warning that agricultural weather patterns were due to undergo significant changes.
The programme offered a dream of a “dynamic, progressive agri-food sector”, yet farmers were tasked with the heavy lifting of restructuring their farms and finances. It appears that within the government’s chosen model of expansion, there was minimal, if any, effort made to provide farmers with the necessary climate data to prepare for a future business that could thrive under changing weather conditions. This negligence, unfortunately, led to a growing scepticism and denial of climate change.
A few years post the release of the plan, I had a discussion with a farmer in Donegal who expressed serious concern about the impact of severe weather on his land. The rainfall had become so heavy that it hindered his farming activities. With a lifetime’s experience in farming, he commented that he and his father had “never faced such terrible conditions”. The farmer was uncertain about what lay ahead and whether he should maintain his current farming practices. He admitted, “Changes are happening,” but he was unsure what they were. Desperate for guidance and local information on how climate change was impacting his farm and how to adapt to future changes, he noted that his peers in the farming sector were simply not discussing it.
The year 2018 went down as a peculiar one for climate and weather anomalies. Stark contrasts were experienced from an unexpectedly fierce snowfall in spring, which Teagasc, the State agricultural bureau, dubbed as “unprecedented”, followed subsequently by a long span of drought during the fieriest summer season documented in over 20 years. As a consequence, the income from farming plummeted which, coupled with the immense pressure of preserving livestock in extreme frigid and parched conditions, pushed several farmers to the edge. However, such drastic weather divergences were not exclusive to that year; Sweeney later forewarned about the probability for weather extremities being escalated in upcoming years.
To assist the farming community and the wider population in navigating these climatic nuances, Met Éireann and RTÉ, the Irish National weather service and television network respectively, could perhaps take a leaf out of France Télévisions book. The French national television station last year altered their seven-day weather forecast to insert a report on climate change. This, following one of the country’s most heat-intensive summers to date. Every night at 8pm, an approximate 3.6 million audience tunes in to comprehend the meteorological situation as demonstrated by a live comparative meter showing the extraordinary rise in temperature over the past 100 years. For those interested, a QR code can be scanned for them to pose their questions to scientists (with Sunday nights devoted to queries from young viewers). Future plans involve leveraging 3D modelling and Augmented Reality for enriching the understanding of climate change complexities.
Dairy farmers currently find themselves at the aftermath of ten gruelling months of non-stop rainfall. They’ve been warned to anticipate elongated winters henceforth and consequently, to earmark more funds towards livestock feed, housing and waste storage costs. None of these grim revelations are unexpected, as the predictions had always been flagged. It’s time for decision-makers to accord due heed to these climate scientists – something they should have done earlier, and would do them good to continue doing so.