Ireland is confronted with a condition where, unprecedentedly, anticipated births might fall below dwellers’ mortality rates. This particular insight was highlighted in the CSO Population and Labour Force Projections report, published recently. This report scrutinises distinct population growth projections for Ireland spanning 2023 to 2057, founded on the 2022 Census data. These projections forecast that by 2057, Ireland’s population could potentially stand at 7.005 million, 6.446 million or 5.734 million. The pivotal alteration in each projection is the net migration, signifying the fluctuation between immigration and emigration on a yearly basis.
In each case, the CSO anticipates a shift from a natural swell (more births compared to deaths) to a natural dip (more deaths compared to births) in the populace around the 2040s. Assumptions about birth and mortality rates, consistent across all scenarios, underpin this report.
The country’s fertility rate is expected to decline from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037, before levelling out until 2057. Meanwhile, the mortality rates for all genders and age groups up to 90 are predicted to see a 2.5% annual improvement up until 2047. The rate of advancement long-term is expected to be 1.5%, while the short-term rate is assumed to diminish proportionately over 25 years to this long-term rate.
To paint a clearer picture, we’re contemplating a case where births are dwindling, the ageing populace is poised to rise markedly, culminating in more deaths than births in Ireland by the 2040s.
Moreover, local women aren’t just having fewer children, but they’re also waiting until later in life to embark on motherhood.
The evolution of medical science has enabled us to enjoy a longer lifespan, a fact that is hugely positive. The presence of more senior individuals among us is incredibly advantageous for our society. From offering childcare support as grandparents to extending their career life beyond the typical retirement age or volunteering in the local community, the services of older people are priceless. However, to continually reap these benefits, it’s crucial that senior citizens are equipped with the support they need to age gracefully within the comfort of their own homes.
Regrettably, aging is associated with a myriad of potential health challenges, such as cardiovascular issues, strokes, dementia, hearing impairment, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, arthritis, osteoporosis, and cancer. The vulnerability typically seen in senior citizens can also heighten the risk of accidents resulting in hospital stays. Consequently, without established support networks, our increasingly aging demographic will place even more pressure on our already strained healthcare system – a significant challenge that needs addressing.
A report by the CSO is grounded on the speculation that the total fertility rate (TFR) – the expected number of offspring a woman will bear in her lifetime – is predicted to decrease from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037 and then remain steady until 2057. “Yearly average births are anticipated to witness stages of decrease under all three scenarios. This is due to the projected lower TFR we have noted in recent years,” states the report.
This is not an isolated phenomenon but a worldwide trend: fertility rates worldwide have been on a consistent downhill trajectory. A paper published in The Lancet, which scrutinised global fertility in 204 nations and territories from 1950-2021 and making predictions up to 2100, has detailed that the global TFR has more than halved, dropping from 4.84 to 2.23 between 1950 and 2021. The report goes on to warn of significant economic challenges in the future due to a higher dependency ratio of older vs working-aged population and a dwindling workforce, particularly for countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa. As per the predictions, there will be fewer younger people compared to older individuals by the end of the 21st century.
The CSO Vital Statistics’ annual report in 2021 reveals that the motherhood pattern in Ireland has changed. The number of women aged 40 and over giving birth has risen by 33.3% over the last decade, up from 3,827 recorded births in 2011 to 5,101 by 2021. Furthermore, the average maternal age has also seen an increase from 31.8 years in 2011 to 33.3 years in 2021.
Fewer children are being born, while at the same time the older population in Ireland is growing. The decrease in birth rates indicates larger transformations happening within society, several of which are seen as favourable. Choices such as family planning, contraception, and abortion are more accessible now, giving women the power to decide if and when they wish to become mothers.
On the other hand, financial burdens also appear to influence women’s choices regarding how many children they desire, or indeed if they even wish to bear children at all. With raising a child in Ireland being notably high-cost, many factors are making it a tough decision. A strain has been placed on families due to rising childcare costs (which has seen some relief in recent years courtesy of the National Childcare Scheme), a tough housing market that has excluded an entire generation, increasing rents, and an enhanced cost of living.
With such financial stressors, it’s hardly unexpected that some women might choose to delay motherhood until they’re more financially stable. If we aim to boost Ireland’s fertility rate to address the rising needs of our ageing population, investing in and supporting women and their families becomes crucial. We must enact family-friendly policies, making it easier for women to grow their families.
– June Shannon (a health-focused freelance writer).