Raiders Benefit from New Rules

The field markings alteration, specifically the 40-metre arc – now implemented as the area beyond which the kickout must travel, as well as serving as an incentive for long distance firing – brought about substantial changes in the Interprovincial matches hosted in Croke Park during the recent weekend. Naturally, there are more rules to consider, but our focus will be on the implications of this novel pitch marking.

It should be mentioned that any scrutiny of the gameplay has prerequisites – the players have had limited training time, neither the games have the serious implications of championship games, and there’s a degree of trial and error from both the players and their trainers. To put it simply, the sample size isn’t large enough, yet we have begun to discern the probable trajectory.

Kickouts:

Kickout strategies have provided ample scope for competition, and the goalie’s prowess combined with the precise co-ordination of the team’s formation in front of him will likely result in intriguing and extensive kickout strategies with time. Moreover, as time elapses, teams might disregard the short kickout, one observable trend was the rarity of the back-pass to the goalkeeper – a long-awaited development, as pressing an opposing team’s short kickout is currently too challenging for teams.

The additional perimeter beyond the arc that the kickouts are required to cover implies that even the short kickouts within the 45 carry a risk. An observance from the four games was an 80% (53/66) retention rate on these short kickouts. For comparison, in the last three games of the 2024 season, which included two semi-finals and the final, consisted of a total of 93 short kickouts inside the 45m, with a retention rate of 98% (91/93). To further highlight the modification brought about by the 40-meter arc, it’s noteworthy that 84 out of the 93 short kickouts ended up in what’s now regarded as the no-go area. Essentially, the kickouts underwent a comprehensive makeover.

In other news, intercounty retiree Graeme Mulcahy, a hurler from Limerick, announced his retirement. In a tactical analysis, the new Gaelic football rules suggest that those who dare to venture beyond the arc will be rewarded. However, as we prepare to adapt to the GAA’s new rhythm, guidance is surely needed. Echoing this sentiment, Darragh Ó Sé feels that Jim Gavin made a compelling case. Still, the pressure rides on the referees to ensure the smooth application of the new rules.

Stephen Cluxton’s performance unravelled in the first half of Friday’s game, resulting in Connacht’s lead of 1-18 to 0-7 at half-time. A disappointing retention of only 7 out of 17 kickouts from Cluxton, significantly below his typical standard, provided Connacht with a substantial advantage, as they produced 0-8 (six single-pointers and a double-pointer) from these 10 kickouts. The strain on the adversary’s kickout led to an insuperable lead by half-time. This dominance in territory could potentially render matches uncompetitive quite swiftly. Moreover, it might enable squads to build the necessary momentum in trailing games, and help them recover from behind.

Offensive Tactics
The games were jam-packed with shots, with only the Connacht v Leinster game falling short of a shot per minute benchmark. The matches held on Friday had 59 and 63 shots each, while both the Saturday games registered 62 shots each. Though this is quite an impressive number of attempts, it is improbable to remain this high in future due to the subpar conversion rates of the shots.

For better understanding of the shot volume, the interprovincial teams managed a shot every 59 seconds over the weekend, while retrospectively, in the high stakes All-Ireland semi-finals and finale, a shot was taken roughly every 85 seconds on average. The shot statistics in these matches (lasted 70 minutes instead of 60 minutes) was Galway v Armagh (43 shots), Galway v Donegal (53 shots) and Armagh v Kerry (66 shots over 90 minutes).

This large disparity ought to be considered in tandem with the stress and implications of shooting. The success quotient of the two-pointers was quite low at 19/60 (32%), yet with enhanced practice of long-range shooting and rise in significance of long-distance free-taking, these conversion rates are expected to develop.

The intriguing part about the volume of two pointer shots is the varying tactics adopted by the teams on both nights. Leinster made eight attempts on Friday, which was reduced to just one on Saturday. Their recurrent long-range shots on Friday led to a considerable lead in score. In contrast, Ulster demonstrated more restraint on Friday with only four shots, but interestingly, that number almost tripled the next evening.

Interpreting these statistics in their raw form can be challenging, considering the complex defensive tactics faced by the offensive side, as well as the unpredictable possibilities of manoeuvring the ball to the interior line. However, the presence of notable two-point shooters such as Rian O’Neill, Niall Morgan, and Johnny Heaney, who each demonstrated multiple successes in the two-point zone throughout the weekend, can make a difference.

Saturday’s final’s concluding minutes offered exactly the type of spectacle that the FRC was hoping for. The sequence was initiated by an impressive two-point shot from Galway’s Johnny Heaney. Subsequently, Connacht took control outside the offensive 45, their intention being to manoeuvre the ball to the interior line. Ulster, however, regained possession and retaliated, expecting the payoff of a two-point attempt by Rian O’Neill. Although this effort fell short, Odhran Murdock successfully sent it to the net.

Heaney then finished off the remaining time with yet another powerful two-point kick, taking the competition to penalties with seconds to go before the final signal. Prior to Heaney’s two decisive kicks, Connacht’s two-point conversion rate was at a bleak 20% (1 out of 5 attempts), but these successes improved it to a much healthier 43% (3 out of 7 attempts).

The current scoring system has forced teams to reconsider their defensive shape, especially around the edges of the 40-metre arc, in order to block two-point shooters. While the conversion rate for two-point shots wasn’t high (32%, or 19 out of 60 attempts), the substantial reward and the element of unpredictability in front of the goal, as demonstrated by the goal from Murdock, made it worthwhile.

The adjusted defensive strategy often resulted in large spaces ahead of the full forward line, within D area. While there were instances of successful kick passes from the arc’s exterior to its interior, the player who controlled the ball frequently had to move back due to being isolated, as exemplified by Kevin Feely. At times, defenders successfully intercepted these passes, as witnessed in Rian O’Neill’s kick. However, the supportive runs performed by Diarmuid O’Connor (for Munster against Ulster) or Matthew Tierney (for Connacht against Ulster) demonstrate the potential opportunities that may arise under these conditions.

During all four matches, there was indeed a sense of thrill and exploration by the teams, a commendable development. As the games, and even the individual quarters, progressed, there was tangible growth on display. Over the weekend, Aidan Forker, Paddy Burns, and Rian O’Neill from the Armagh trio offered an insightful analysis, hinting at promising times ahead. However, one can anticipate seeing the real impact of the modified rules when the pressure is on. Paul O’Brien, working as a performance analyst for The Performance Process, can be reached at twitter.com/NoPlanBGAA.

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