The battle that spanned six months in Gaza has altered the political dynamics in the North Africa and Middle East regions significantly, causing Israel to be increasingly isolated. This shift came amidst the absence of an acknowledged leader to helm a response to the region’s most disastrous war in many years, leading to a lack of a united governmental reaction. This has, in turn, weakened regional players during this grave crisis of the century due to potential war escalation.
Saudi Arabia’s leadership role has rapidly dwindled. In contrast, rival nation Qatar has gained leverage and status by acting as a key interlocutor between Hamas and Israel during discussions involving ceasefires, hostage and prison releases.
Egypt has also contributed to these initiatives, yet it couldn’t regain the dominating role across the Arab nations that it lost when it signed the initial peace treaty with Israel in March 1979. As punishment for its abandonment of the Arab opposition against Israel, Egypt had its membership in the Arab League suspended and witnessed the assassination of its leader, Anwar Sadat in October 1981. In recent times, Egypt faced criticism for not pressuring Israel enough to allow medical assistance and food supplies for the wounded and starving people in Gaza.
Talks for another ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are underway as soldiers retreat from southern Gaza for ‘strategic purposes’.
In the post-1979 era, after the removal of the shah, Iran has garnered influence by encouraging its allies – Hizbullah of Lebanon, Shia militias of Iraq and Yemen’s Houthi group – to remain calm whilst launching counterattacks on Israel for their war in Gaza. Hizbullah has aimed missiles at military locations in northern Israel which Israel retaliated by deploying bombs deep within Lebanon. The occasional attacks carried out by Iraq’s Shia militias on US bases situated in Iraq and Syria incited moderate US counterattacks.
By aiming at international shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, Yemen’s Houthis have carved out a role for themselves on both regional and global levels, thereby cutting down trade on this route by half, as reported by the IMF.
Covert communications between Washington and Tehran, with the aim to prevent the Gaza conflict from intensifying and spreading, have further increased Iran’s standing.
Hamas’ resistance to Israeli occupation, evident in their October 7th attack on Israel, continues to garner the group respect and influence amongst Palestinians and throughout the region. Despite unsuccessful attempts by the Palestinian Authority to negotiate Palestinian statehood, Hamas’ standing remains strong. This is reflected by the fact that 88% of Palestinians are calling for the resignation of President Mahmoud Abbas, while over half view the authority more as a hindrance, rather than a governance body adequate for leading post-war Gaza.
Popular protests, fuelled by deep-seated dissatisfaction and anger towards Israel, have seen calls for Jordan’s government – which made peace with Israel in 1994, as well as Morocco and Bahrain, both of whom normalised relations with Israel in 2020 – to sever ties with the Jewish state. Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has seen a loss in popular respect due to his preservation of trade links with Israel, despite vocal criticism of its involvement in the Gaza conflict.
Discussions between the US and Saudi Arabia regarding normalisation with Israel following the end of the Gaza war have been deferred, pending the recovery of envoy Jake Sullivan from a minor setback. The prevalent anti-Israel and anti-US sentiment in the region suggests that rapid normalisation is improbable. Accusations of involvement in the massacre of 33,000 Palestinians and the destruction of Gaza have led to a significant loss of influence for Washington in the region.