Under the prevailing strength of war circumstances with Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has opted for a strategic reshuffle in his defence ministry, appointing Andrei Belousov, a noteworthy technocrat, in place of the embattled Sergei Shoigu. This change underscores the Kremlin’s intricate endeavour to ensure that astronomical military expenditure bolsters, not cripples, the national economy.
Shoigu, 68, held the post as Russia’s defence head for a considerable period of 12 years. However, premature failures in the intense invasion of Ukraine have left him exposed to relentless chastisement from distinguished Russian military bloggers and the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who tragically died in an enigmatic plane crash after triggering a short-lived revolt last year to insist on Shoigu’s dismissal.
Given that Shoigu was a personal friend and firm ally, frequently seen with Putin engaging in outdoor activities in Siberia, Putin chose not to concede to pressures and remove him from the position then. Presently, with Russian soldiers gaining territories in certain regions of Eastern Ukraine while Kyiv anticipates supply of western weapons and new army recruits, Shoigu can be gracefully assigned to a distinguished albeit advisory role in the national security council, thereby not emphasizing his troops’ inability to accomplish their projected swift victory in Ukraine.
Last month, Shoigu’s credibility took another hit when his deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov was apprehended on allegations of accepting kickbacks, becoming the first significant official to be implicated in a major graft case in recent years.
Belousov, previously a deputy prime minister who functioned as Putin’s economic advisor, transitions to his new position as defence minister without military expertise but carries a solid reputation of being an efficient technocrat with an inclination for state control in the economy. Importantly, he is known to be devoted to Putin without harbouring any significant political aspirations.
Putin is currently focused on ensuring that the ginormous financial investments directed towards war are not squandered. “However, Belousov stands to permanently spoil his reputation as he becomes a co-conspirator”, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Prior to this, Belousov was accountable for technological advancement. The Kremlin holds the expectation that he will mechanise the economy, transforming it into a war economy, initiating military driven GDP growth. “That’s fundamentally Soviet, which is the very approach that led to the downfall of the USSR.” Kolesnikov added.
The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has emphasised that defence and security expenses currently total 6.7 per cent of Russia’s financial plan, an estimation which is steadily approaching the mid-1980s scenario when such costs constituted 7.4 per cent. He stressed the crucial need for special handling of the situation.
Peskov also underscored the significant need for the security sector’s economy to be integrated into the nation’s economy, to cater for existing demands. He insisted on the openness of the Ministry of Defence towards novelty, embracing revolutionary ideas and establishing an environment for economic competitivity. This very reason led to the selection of Belousov by the president.
However, Peskov made it clear that the introduction of Belousov, aged 65, will not alter the role or obligations of Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s general staff, who was criticised severely by Prigozhin and military bloggers for the shortcomings in Ukraine.
Furthermore, Tatiana Stanovaya, the lead at political analysis organisation R. Politik, stated, “Injecting Belousov into the mix won’t affect the management of military combat operations; this responsibility will actually increase the independence of the general staff”. The main aim of Putin is to improve the state’s ability to efficiently meet the military needs, while maintaining most features of the existing ‘structure.’
As a part of emerging elite succession in Russia, the offspring of two close compatriots and extended-term acquaintances of Putin got elevated positions: Boris Kovalchuk got appointed as the head of the national audit chamber and Dmitry Patrushev got advanced to the position of deputy prime minister. After being succeeded by Shoigu in the role of national security council’s secretary, Nikolai Patrushev, Dmitry’s father and one of Russia’s potent anti-western “hawks,” is expected to undertake a fresh position.