With the August break on the horizon, the Cabinet and everybody else have hastily vacated their offices this week, marking the end of a laborious political term. However, the echoing drums of war can be heard, suggesting an impending general election. Indeed, it seems like the proverbial quiet before the storm.
I’m yet to come across anyone with insider knowledge or the clout who genuinely holds the conviction that the current Government will hold office until March of next year. An individual closely connected with the situation has warned that the Coalition must be prepared for any possible setbacks that might occur in September or October. But unless such an unpredictable calamity transpires, this insider anticipates a general election in November.
There were hints this week for those who knew what signs to search for. Fine Gael has held a flurry of selection conventions and selected candidates in various districts over the past two weeks.
At a meeting of the national executive on Wednesday evening, Fianna Fáil assigned Noel Dempsey to oversee its election planning committee and junior minister James Browne to head the manifesto preparations. More conventions on the horizon, the chaps are stepping up the pace.
Predictions on the general election’s timing strut about while Fine Gael faces possible departures as the election looms closer. If the United Kingdom post-Brexit were viewed as an inflamed appendix, France with its Euroscepticism would be seen as a dangerous cancer.
The issue around the funding of RTÉ was resolved in a way that provoked the least political unrest. There will be no new broadcasting fee and any measures against evasion will be delayed until another “working group” presents its reports in the future. Despite some overly dramatic commentary, this isn’t a gold mine for the station at all. In fact, it’s the opposite. In the foreseeable future, the station will continue to face challenging times. The need for severe action persists at Montrose. However, for the Coalition, a problematic issue has been resolved. They can now move on to the next item on the agenda.
Delving into media-related matters, the Defamation Bill was unexpectedly introduced this week by Justice Minister Helen McEntee (though the lion’s share of the job was actually done by junior minister James Browne) on a Thursday. This Bill has been consistently desired by broadcasters and newspapers, who are desperate to break free from the chains of Europe’s most severe libel laws.
In the same week, Sinn Féin had a difficult time, marked by McDonald’s unveiling of the party’s fresh stance on asylum and international protection.
The Irish Government indeed deserves praise for this move – but one wonders why it was done now. I speculate that the Bill might be presented for discussion in the Oireachtas in October, permitting the Government to highlight the substantial volume of libel suits lodged against news organisations by Sinn Féin’s representatives. The Bill includes safeguards against Slapps – strategic lawsuits aimed at thwarting public involvement – essentially cases brought by businesses or politicians to prevent media scrutiny. Government ministers and TDs are likely to feel duty-bound to draw attention to the cases filed by the leader of Sinn Féin, Mary Lou McDonald – including one against RTÉ – which have been dubbed as “having the distinctive trait of Slapps”, a claim she vehemently refutes.
Simultaneously amidst the week’s events, Sinn Féin faced challenges when McDonald initiated the party’s latest policy on international protection and asylum. This course of action would allow the party to support general asylum concepts, maintain its left-wing, anti-racist image, yet also provide backing for candidates to counter any specific asylum centre due to insufficient consultation or unsuitability. McDonald encapsulated the spirit of the policy by asserting that asylum centres should be based in wealthier regions. The statement was lucid, at least, signifying that Sinn Féin aims to solidify its bond with the working class.
The issue lies in the fact that they may have permanently lost a portion of those votes. This sentiment is shared by some of Sinn Féin’s rivals, who revel unabashedly in the party’s issues. I reckon they might need to soften their jubilation if portions of Sinn Féin’s working class supporters shift allegiance to a hard-right national alternative.
Clear signs of stress were apparent in a recent dialogue McDonald had with Philip Boucher-Hayes on RTÉ, discussing her party’s latest refugee policy. It’s been clear for a considerable time that she’s been on edge. The Party’s current political vulnerability is arguably the most compelling reason for considering an election this Autumn.
The current predicament of Sinn Féin has advantaged the Government, notably after the local and European elections. This is particularly noticeable in the activities of Simon Harris, who has been actively travelling across the country, engaging with people through handshakes, selfies, TikToks, and similar activities. His strong impression at the MacGill summer school last week is hard to ignore.
However, this upbeat sentiment within Fine Gael isn’t likely to last indefinitely, though it certainly could continue until November. Couple this with the anticipation in the Government for a Trump victory on the 5th of November, along with the potential shift to ‘safe’ voting patterns by Irish citizens (a theory agreed upon by two pollsters), and the call for an election in the subsequent weeks becomes louder.
Despite previous denials, such a change of tack post-Budget would necessitate a significant policy turnaround. Some members of the Government appear nonchalant about how easily this shift could be made, casually suggesting that stating the government’s tenure is effectively over would allow for early elections. While theoretically possible, Ministers need to proceed with caution when dismissing an Autumn election. Voters won’t appreciate being deceived. Despite this, the argument favoring an early election is too compelling to ignore. Politicians generally act in their own best interest, though not always. Currently, my prediction points to November 15th.