Out of the triad that envisioned and orchestrated the most unorthodox Coalition Government in the State’s history, only one remains. Micheál Martin, the leader of the Fianna Fáil, is left standing after his two associates have rapidly vacated their roles.
Fine Gael was profoundly shaken by Leo Varadkar’s exit from the Taoiseach’s position. Yet, politics rarely dwells on the past. A mere three months later, the party is enthusiastically embracing their new chief, Simon Harris. Their spirits are high, filled with a newfound energy and confidence they hadn’t initiated the year with, as they approach the forthcoming election.
The Green Party’s third faction of the Coalition also underwent a similar change with Eamon Ryan’s stepping down as party leader this week. This was driven by a combination of personal issues and political challenges, the nadir being the disappointing outcome of the local and European elections on June 7th. The Green Party may also face a similar predicament with few members assured of triumph and an impending electoral battle.
Just as Harris injected new vitality and a different dynamic into the governmental decision making, similarly Ryan’s exit and his replacement – either Roderic O’Gorman or Pippa Hackett, yet to be chosen in another three weeks – will undeniably impact the manner in which the Government presents itself, makes its decisions and implements its policies.
The effect of the new leader, regardless of who they are, will be expected to massively influence the Green Party as it aims to escape obliteration in the forthcoming general election. Furthermore, a considerable issue to consider is how Ryan’s withdrawal will impact the Government as it moves into the final stage of its tenure.
As for the Coalition’s future – those with experience in leadership roles within the Government can confirm that there’s scarcely a moment to pause and reflect on such matters as events unfold at an alarming rate.
The upcoming pressures that the future leader of the Green Party will face are steadily escalating. In the following weeks, the Coalition will need to contemplate carrying on with the hate speech/hate crime legislation as it presently stands, strategise a solution for the RTÉ financial crisis, a topic that the Greens feel strongly about, and ascertain the economic rules for the next budget based on the summer’s fiscal statement. Not to mention, they’ll need to determine when the general election will take place, a decision likely to remain undisclosed amongst the party heads.
The new leader’s announcement is expected on July 8th, that may follow some vital decisions being made. Is it expected that Ryan will keep the candidates informed about these ongoing discussions? The answer according to a spokesperson is affirmative. In fact, they might have better understanding than most cabinet members, who often find out about decisions only after they have been finalised by the leaders.
Beginning from the subsequent week, the Coalition chiefs will deliberate over these choices. Word coming out of Brussels reveals that the scramble for positions has already commenced, and with a probable summit next week to confirm key EU roles, the Government is eager to nominate the next Irish Commissioner. The Fianna Fáil leader, who is responsible for this decision, has hinted at an imminent announcement this week.
Martin is keeping his choice for the appointment under wraps; however, the speculated front-runner is the Minister of Finance, Michael McGrath. His exit would leave a significant cabinet position open. Party insiders imply that Jack Chambers’ recent appointment as deputy leader, a position unoccupied for four years, might suggest his promotion to McGrath’s vacant position.
Any government would consider the appointment of a new finance minister, arguably the most important role in the government, as a major shift. This is especially crucial as it happens just weeks before the summer economic report outlining the budget rules for the autumn. Given Chambers’ close relationship with Martin, this is likely to enhance the latter’s influence on the budget process, and, ultimately, his control in government.
Economic, financial, and political implications all contribute to the formation of budgets, asserts Stephen Kinsella, an economics professor at the University of Limerick. He believes that budgets reflect those who create them, and personalities play significant roles during their negotiation processes.
Following this process, the Coalition leaders are faced with making drastic decisions, involving two substantial disputes. Initially, resolving the stalled hate speech/hate crime Bill in the Seanad takes precedence. The Taoiseach has committed to having an answer before the summer recess, while the Greens, especially O’Gorman, back its progression. Conversely, parties from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil propose the Bill should be separated, pushing forward with hate crime sections while directing the politically sensitive hate speech components back to an Oireachtas committee for additional discussion.
The subsequent dispute pertains to the issue of RTÉ funding, which again divides Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil against the Greens. The Green Party’s Media Minister Catherine Martin has been vocal about substituting the licence fee with direct State funding for RTÉ. Despite fervent advocacy from Martin, this suggestion from the Future of Media Commission two years ago was refuted by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Persons within the Government who are known to staunchly oppose Exchequer funding, such as the Tánaiste, the Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe, as well as Mr McGrath, do so not only out of concerns that it’s a poor decision to make the State broadcaster reliant on annual political budget decisions, but also because they perceive RTÉ as largely unreformed.
The concurrence on the summer economic statement serves as more than just a disagreement between the Greens and their counterparts. It’s one of the crucial decisions of the year and outlines constraints for the forthcoming autumn budget. It creates tension between the spendthrifts and the economizers, tax cut proponents, and those advocating for increased spending. The specifics will not be established until the budget, however, the statement sets the boundaries for what’s possible and marks the matter’s contested territories.
The Taoiseach has expressed his aspirations for the budget to lower the expenses related to childcare, education and college, in his address to his parliamentary party on Wednesday evening. This manoeuvring isn’t new, however, it has been going on for a while. The necessity for the Greens to display their proficiency and the impact of their prioritisation has never been more critical, especially given their governmental contributions. This however, is undoubtedly a catalyst for strife.
Eoin O’Malley, a politics academic at Dublin City University, suggests that often governments end up falling apart unintentionally due to the strategic moves of each party trying to outwit one another, with the precise election timing well known. He implies that the Greens will be keen to sidestep the unfortunate fate they met in 2011, when they lost all their seats, and were manipulated to help certain Fianna Fáil TDs hold on to their roles. If a new leader was to steer towards a left alliance, more in harmony with their voter base, a breach within the government could be hard to avoid.
Concurring with this view is UCD politics professor, Aidan Regan, who states that the likelihood of a premature election is on the rise. In his opinion, Eamon Ryan would have probably objected to an early election, but with his veto now gone, the new leader may not have as much influence over Harris or Martin. Furthermore, the new leader’s focus could be more on the party’s election preparations rather than retaining the Greens in the government. They’re likely to speed up finishing any departmental work and ensure as many green policies are in place for their successors.
It is evident that the time is of the essence. Even though the new Green leader might feel compelled to prove their distinctiveness, the fact remains that this administration is approaching its end. One highly experienced Government TD opines, “They are likely to make their presence felt, but there won’t be a lot of time for grandstanding.”