Approximately half of the US voters trust that their wellbeing will improve if Donald Trump secures a victory in the presidental elections, a conclusion drawn from a recently conducted poll. This survey was conducted as the Republican convention commences, an event likely to be heavily influenced by the repercussions of the assassination attempt on the candidate.
The nationwide survey, carried out last week, preceeds the incident where a solitary armed individual attacked Mr Trump at a political rally in Pennsylvania. Despite this, the poll still indicates the voters’ confidence in Trump’s economic prowess in the run up to the November elections.
Forty-five percent of voters, inclusive of 40% independents, are under the impression they would be “significantly” or “moderately” better off with Trump. Contrastingly, only 35% believe they’d be “significantly” or “moderately” worse off, according to the latest survey conducted by the Financial Times and Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan.
This recurrent monthly poll from FT-Ross Business School aims to understand economic sentiment and voters’ perspectives leading up to the presidential election in November. Significantly, Mr Trump has consistently outperformed his Democratic competitor, Joe Biden, when it comes to voters’ faith in managing the economy.
Despite recent strong economic growth, low unemployment rates, and fallen inflation, Biden hasn’t been successful in convincing the electorate that his economic strategies are efficient, primarily because of continuous struggles with high prices. Trump, on the other hand, has built his campaign around the robust economy during his term, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. He has promised to cut down regulation, lower taxes, and increase import tariffs drastically if he wins another term.
Meanwhile, voters’ concerns about inflation are closely linked with their perception of the incumbent’s struggles. Over the past quarter, a significant 77% Americans disclosed their belief in increased inflation, with nearly half of them believing it has skyrocketed, in spite of the moderation.
Recent official statistics, released the previous week, showed a decline in US inflation to 3% in June, a significant drop from the 9% peak two years ago. In contrast, only 32% reported benefiting from the record-breaking performance on Wall Street, while 49% confessed that they haven’t benefited at all.
According to Erik Gordon of Ross, “Trump still outranks Biden when it comes to the economy”, emphasising the necessity for Biden to appeal to a wider voter base given the economy is a key factor influencing voters.
The FT-Ross Michigan poll reveals that the first results following Mr Biden’s ill-received televised debate have caused a dip in his approval ratings. Over the course of the past month, approval ratings fell from 42% to 40% with American citizens commenting on his presidential performance.
Economic concerns continue to present Mr Biden with his largest hurdle. Only 18% of people surveyed felt their financial position had improved since his presidency started, as opposed to 49% feeling the reverse. Approximately a third observed no change. Since the commencement of the poll in November, these figures have remained practically the same.
These surveys were carried out from July 8th to July 10th, a duration exceeding a week after the debate led to democratic party turmoil centred on the President’s cognitive capacity both for the campaign and another term in office.
When asked about their confidence in each candidate’s capacity to manage the economy, Mr Biden was the choice for 35%, showing a two-point decline post-debate. Mr Trump’s rate remained consistent with the previous poll at 41%.
In spite of official indications that inflation is calming down, just about 80% of the poll’s participants cited price hikes as the largest financial stressor during the last month.
The poll, carried out digitally by the Democratic Group Global Strategy Group and the Republican pollsters North Star Opinion Research, is representative of the viewpoint of 1,005 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. All rights belong to The Financial Times 2024.