An Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll has recently revealed that the favoured outcome of the forthcoming election for most voters is a reappointment of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The favoured coalition, as voted by 22% of the electorate, is between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, closely followed by 21% favouring the recurrence of the recent coalition with the Green Party.
On the other hand, a Sinn Féin-led government that excludes Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil has only been endorsed by a small fraction of voters, specifically fewer than one in six, or 16%. Notably, Sinn Féin is unsurprisingly on top of the list of parties that voters would not prefer to have in government, with a strong 37%.
When polled about the upcoming Taoiseach, Simon Harris of Fine Gael emerged as the top preference for voters by a substantial gap. 37% predict that he will lead the country post the general elections. His closest competition is Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin with support from 24% surveyed, followed distantly by Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil, who only amassed 14% support.
As for the election timing, voters seem to be divided. Some 36% propose that the government should hold back until the next year, almost equally matched by 35% who believe it should be scheduled this year. Nevertheless, 27% feel that the timing will not influence the outcome.
When it comes to the direction of the nation, more respondents (51%) support “moderate change” versus 38% who are in favor of “radical change”, and a minimal 8% express discomfort towards any change.
Additionally, regarding the current government performance, the survey found that 40% of the respondents agreed that sufficient progress had not been made and they demand a change. 26% argued for an urgent, radical shift in the country’s trajectory. However, 27% acknowledge the government’s advancements and believe it should be allowed to continue its work.
This poll involved in-home interviews conducted between the 14th and the 17th of September 2024, across 120 sampling spots distributed throughout all the constituencies. The survey comprises a representative sample of 1,200 adults aged 18 years and above, with an estimated accuracy of ±2.8%.