This week marks the end of the current Dáil term in which members of parliament are about to enter a long summer break. However, it won’t be a relaxing one due to the likelihood of an autumn general election and the impending execution of the government’s final budget, all under an unappealing weather forecast with lots of rain. One can’t help but be grateful for any set-aside funds for such unpredictable times.
The key activity for the day is the release of the Summer Economic Statement at noon, a major roadmap for the upcoming budget plans. This was agreed upon after a prolonged meeting on Monday night between the trio of Coalition leaders and the finance ministers Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe. Detailed contents of the agreement are yet to be divulged but we anticipate a fiscal package exceeding €1.1 billion on the table. The timing of the meeting caused the Prime Minister Simon Harris to miss the US Ambassador’s Independence Day celebration in Phoenix Park.
The frequency of changes within the coalition was reflected in the meeting as the freshly appointed finance minister Jack Chambers, who assumed his role just under two weeks ago, was not the latest member in a new role (Roderic O’Gorman, Green Party member, was elected earlier that day). It’s unclear how these numerous modifications will play out in the crucial months precluding the election.
Since stepping into his role, Chambers stressed on exercising discretion and sensibleness, aiming to moderate anticipations. On the other hand, a private conversation with a Fianna Fáil minister revealed the desire to promote fiscal control as a key element of the party’s identity. Whether their peers will agree to this approach remains to be seen.
If you are curious about the SES and other concurrent matters being presented to the cabinet, stay tuned.
Some elements within Fianna Fáil have suspicions that Fine Gael might blame Chambers for any unfulfilled budget commitments, particularly if a diminished VAT rate for the hospitality industry fails to pass. A power struggle in politics is predicted in the coming months.
The unanswered question is O’Gorman’s role in this tangle. There is no expectation of a ministerial shuffle, and as highlighted by Pat Leahy, O’Gorman represents a link to Eamon Ryan. But, it’s doubtful that maintaining the status quo will be enough for the Green Party to secure support from an audience beyond their usual base. O’Gorman, the Dublin West TD, suggested yesterday he wants to demonstrate how Green party’s policies can assist and back the public in their regular lives. Still, questions remain about which policies, their financial weight, and the strength needed to stamp them as Green Party’s initiatives.
Recommended readings include an article on Keir Starmer’s recent visit to Belfast, in which Northern editor Freya McClements describes the change in the environment. Exploring the aftermath of the incredible French elections are two analysis pieces by Jack Power. Brexit didn’t have a substantial presence in the UK general election campaign, but Fintan O’Toole believes Starmer should now address this ignored issue. In The Debate, Neale Richmond, Minister of State, articulates his party’s stance on inheritance tax, a topic Fine Gael ministers intrigued by pre-budget comment articles.
The agenda for the day commences with the cabinet meeting at 9 am, followed by the Summer Economic Statement expected to be shared shortly after lunch. The Dáil session starts from 2 pm, followed by Taoiseach’s Questions at 3 pm. The legislature on student accommodation leases will occupy government’s attention in the afternoon. Sinn Féin plans to propose a private member’s motion for an investigation into the decade-old hit and run case of Shane O’Farrell in Monaghan. Later in the evening, Paschal Donohoe will answer oral questions after unveiling the Summer Economic Statement, followed by topical issues a little before 11 pm.
A comprehensive schedule is provided.
The Seanad commences its sessions at 1 pm, followed by the day’s agenda. At exactly 3.15 pm, the report and the last stages of the Defence (Amendment) Bill will be undertaken. They will then move on to the committee discussion for the Social Welfare miscellaneous bill and its remaining stages at 5.15 pm. You can find the detailed schedule on this link.
Experts on local democratic future will be consulted by the Seanad Public Consultation Committee from 9 am onwards, while the environment committee will be hearing out labour unions regarding the circular economy and the waste management sector at 11 am. Simultaneously, the future of AI in learning furthermore will be a topic under discussion in an educational committee. Meanwhile, a joint gathering in the afternoon and evening will feature a dialogue on decriminalisation at the committee on drug misuse.
Budgetary submissions are underway at a steady pace. The St. Vincent de Paul is set to launch their submission at 10 am at Buswell’s. SIPTU community division members are estimated to stage a protest outside the Leinster House in the later part of the afternoon. There will also be demonstrations from Ethical Farming Ireland and My Lovely Horse Rescue outside the Department of Agriculture around noon.