Recent turbulence experiences on Singapore and Qatar Airlines flights have sparked concerns among travellers after causing injuries to both passengers and crew. Furthermore, public attention was heightened when a 73-year-old Briton died and seven others were critically injured on a London to Singapore flight on May 21st, and 12 passengers were hurt last week on a Qatar Airways flight from Doha to Dublin due to turbulence.
According to pilots and safety experts, though turbulence can be frightening and is the main reason for injuries during flights, it rarely poses a real risk to a plane’s ability to stay in the air. Turbulence is caused by a plane passing through air that has been disrupted by various elements like changing temperature, jet streams, and atmospheric pressure. This often results in haphazard sideways and vertical shifts in a plane’s path resembling a car driving over potholes.
Materials on board a plane can become hazardous in severe turbulence events, potentially lifting passengers and crew off their seats and flinging them around. Yet, experts assert that if this occurs, the plane is likely already in a dangerous location due to another failure or issue. A key part of an airline’s daily routine is to avoid areas where rough air is predicted and they will often reroute flights to circumvent thunderstorms.
Nic Gammon, an experienced Aer Lingus officer specialising in Airbus 330 aircraft, comments that turbulence is generally expected over regions like the Alps and the tropics. Planes typically possess the technology to detect problematic weather up to 160 kilometres away using weather charts prepared before the flight and reports on conditions from other planes around the flight path.
Whilst turbulence can feel akin to freefall, Mr Gammon reassures travellers that on the Atlantic routes, turbulence might cause a plane to descend just 20 to 50 feet before being stabilised again.
He described turbulence as a mere “irritation”, an “inconvenience” that doesn’t present a serious threat to the aircraft; the wings, he assured, would remain intact. He also discussed lightning strikes on planes, typically an event with no dire consequences. The design of airplanes insulates passengers from strikes while thin rods attached to the wings help scatter the static electricity, he noted. He referred to an incident earlier this year when a Boeing 777 owned by Air Canada was struck by lightning during departure from Vancouver, British Columbia. Despite eliciting fear in passengers, the flight safely continued its trip to London, England without any problems. This occurrence was largely viewed online, with the video recording over a million views since it was uploaded in March.
Mr Gammon shared how light to moderate turbulence, while uncomfortable, is generally not hazardous. He remembered a turbulent flight from Orlando, United States to Dublin, and highlighted that flying through turbulence may not always be an option, especially if the aircraft is carrying a heavy load. Making a decision to fly lower may result in greater fuel consumption and possibly prevents the plane from reaching its destination.
However, pilot John Leahy claimed encountering severe turbulence is normally a sign of another problem. Leahy, who had been chief pilot for British Airways’ 747 fleet and also the director of safety at Ryanair, mentioned possible severe onboard injuries due to turbulence. In any case, safety measures like avoiding turbulence and seatbelt usage are always prioritized by airlines and passengers respectively.
In 2022, despite the four to five billion passenger trips made in commercial aviation, it was recorded that no fatalities occurred. Mr Leahy asserted that traveling by plane remains one of the safest activities.”Indeed, one could not be safer than being on an aircraft,” he announced. Details were still emerging regarding the turbulence encountered on a Qatar flight heading for Dublin, shared Leahy.
The inquiry remains why the ‘buckle up’ lights in the cabin were only activated shortly before the incident, as mentioned. The ability of the aircraft’s radar to foresee such turbulence beforehand also raises queries as to why this plane encountered it.
“Even with these occurrences, they seldom result in catastrophe,” it was stated. However, experts are probing into earlier reports related to this Qatar situation, especially claims of the plane plummeting 275ft at a rate of 21,888 feet per minute. Comparisons have been made to the tragic Air France flight 447 from Brazil to France in 2009, which plunged at a rate of 11,000ft per minute — a path that could not be diverted. In the Air France crash, inconsistent velocity readings led to an accidental halt of the A330 Airbus by the pilots, according to the investigation findings.
The UK’s University of Reading has conducted various investigations into the prevalence and impact of turbulence in light of climate changes. Research revealed that the frequency of clear-air turbulence, not associated with any visible weather like thunderstorms or clouds, has risen in several global regions according to findings released last year.
Severe trubulence at a normal spot over the North Atlantic – one of the busiest air travel routes in the world – has seen an increase in total annual duration by 55%, going up from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020, as per the research. Moderate turbulence had a 37% increase from 70.0 hours to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence rose by 17% from 466.5 hours to 546.8 hours.
Professor Paul Williams, a climate researcher at the university and co-author of the study, emphasised the need for investments in better turbulence prediction and detection systems to avoid increased turbulence translating to rougher flights in future.
Williams assures that aeroplanes will not begin plummeting, given their high manufacturing standards, and their capacity to withstand the most extreme turbulence they could possibly encounter, even in the future. However, he emphasises that the average length of turbulence encounters is expected to rise.
Usually, turbulence may last about 10 minutes on a cross-Atlantic flight. However, within the next few decades, this could potentially double or even triple. Regrettably for travellers, the seatbelt signs might be illuminated more often,” he suggested.
According to the Irish Aviation Authority, between 2018 and 2022, there was only a single incident of an accident caused by turbulence, but there were no major turbulence-related events. A representative confirmed that no serious incidents or accidents related to turbulence involving Irish commercial planes were reported last year.