Green MEP Ciarán Cuffe, who recently faced defeat, confides his sensations via a telephone conversation, his tone dripping with a touch of disappointment. He discloses, “It’s not a walk in the park being part of the Green Party”, acknowledging his participation in a party that often teeters on the brink in public polls or encounters challenges. “A phrase like ‘leading the surveys’ never came naturally to me, as I’ve experienced both triumph and defeat at the polls,” he admitted, harking back to an incident five years ago. This is a reference to 2019 when Cuffe effortlessly secured a position in the European Parliament, leading the votes in Dublin. However, only last week, he was ousted after the 18th count, falling 3,000 votes behind Aodhán Ó Ríordáin from the Labour Party.
This narrative of Cuffe is not uncommon within Ireland’s Green Party. The party’s performance has seen drastic fluctuations, similar to a fluctuating needle of a defective lie detector test. The party made its initial significant stride in Irish politics two decades ago, securing 16 council seats across the state in 2004. This was followed by a record victory of six seats in the Dáil in 2007. “The Green Party signifies an ideology whose time has arrived,” then leader Trevor Sargent had forecasted at that juncture.
However, this triumph was short-lived and when the downfall arrived, it was severe. As Ireland’s economy started to falter, the party suffered a massive blow during the 2009 elections, retaining only three of its council seats. During the 2011 general elections, it faced a catastrophic defeat, losing all six seats. To worsen the situation, their national support dwindled to under 2 per cent, consequentially resulting in the loss of all national funding. The party had to survive on the reliance and contribution of volunteers almost entirely.
Currently, fears loom that a similar history may recur at the upcoming general election. This will heavily influence the leadership competition for Eamon Ryan’s successor. During the elections on 7th June, both MEPs of the party – Ciarán Cuffe of Dublin and Grace O’Sullivan of Ireland South – lost their positions. They saw their total of 49 council seats, secured in 2019, dwindle to 23 with merely six of them situated outside the capital.
The recent decline in the popularity of the Green Party isn’t solely an Irish affair, but is a trend seen across Europe in recent elections. German Greens lost nearly half of their seats while in France, the party’s number of MEPs fell to half from 10. Similar occurrences were also recorded in Belgium, Portugal, Finland, and Austria. However, the party’s influence increased in other areas including the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Croatia, Latvia, Spain, Slovenia, and Italy. Despite these gains, the European Greens experienced a net loss of 20 seats, reducing their presence in the European Parliament from 71 to 51 seats.
Dr Theresa Reidy from University College Cork who heads the department of Government and Politics attributes this fall in popularity to a reaction from voters towards the financial implications and personal behavioural adjustments required by current green policies. The fact that the Greens are also in power in several states including Germany and has EU policies in place arguably makes it complicate matters.
According to Dr Reidy, the Green Party continues to be influential, more so than it was 20 years ago. While she hints at a possibility of a long term decline, she also thinks that the Greens, rooted in a solid set of political beliefs and values, aren’t the same as other minor parties. These parties tend to rise quickly only to implode later, but the core issues driving the Green Party have only grown stronger over time. The fluctuation in their electoral success does not undermine this fact.
Ciarán Cuffe echoes this, pointing out that it’s not just an Irish thing but a Europe-wide phenomenon. He intimates that cost-conscious voters have blamed the Greens for rising energy costs resulting from Europe’s distancing from Russian oil and gas following Ukraine’s invasion by Russia. The coincidence with the European Green Deal, targeting EU’s carbon neutrality by 2050 which was under implementation at the same time, led voters to misassociate the cost implications with the Greens.
In Cuffe’s view, the appeal of the Greens is much more marked amongst the middle class. Those finding it difficult to pay their bills are not as easily persuaded to support the Green Party.
Cuffe has suggested several reasons for certain outcomes, noting that the political setting half a decade ago could not have been better suited for the success of the Green parties across Europe.
In his opinion, the year 2019 marked a significant period where a massive environmental movement led by young people became evident worldwide, further stimulated by influential figures such as David Attenborough and Greta Thunberg who made climate change a prevalent topic in the global discourse.
Fast forward five years and the general consensus is that climate change is indeed an issue. However, Cuffe believes that many are either expressing hopelessness or choosing to ignore the crisis. Meanwhile, the deterioration of the climate continues to be a major worry for many, including himself.
This is backed by Eurobarometer polls that indicate that although environmental and biodiversity topics remain important, they were reduced from top priority in 2019 to third place by July 2023.
Accoring to Cuffe, other pressing events in Europe have overshadowed climate change. He highlights a series of crises since 2020 such as the pandemic, the Ukrainian conflict, and the ongoing tragic events in Gaza. The subsequent increase in energy costs and living expenses are now the primary concerns.
Cuffe goes on to state, “The ‘green’ message appears to have a stronger appeal to the middle classes. Those who are battling financial difficulties tend not to be Green voters.”
Immigration has risen to be a key issue throughout Europe. Furthermore, climate-related policies have raised concerns among some sections of Europeans who view them as harmful to farming, rural living standards and escalating fuel prices. Protests blocking traffic with tractors are common sights not only in Paris and Brussels but also around the area of Leinster House.
Relentless social media attacks on Green parties and their politicians, which Cuffe suspects to be originating from Russia, have also been an influencing factor.
Cuffe says of social media: “Never have I seen such a high number of bots on social media denying climate change as in the recent six months, ranging from claims that we will all be consuming insects to ideas that climate change is a myth. I believe this is a coordinated effort, presumably by Russian entities.”
According to Dan Boyle, a former TD, senator, and current Cork councillor, the Green party in Ireland and Europe has experienced losses, but these are not catastrophic and are incomparable with the losses seen in 2009 or 2011. Despite speculations about Grace O’Sullivan’s and Ciarán’s ability to retain their seats, the situation was unexpectedly competitive. The Green party in Germany, which is part of the governing body, also suffered losses similar to other European countries such as France and Austria. Yet the decline isn’t consistent, as the party managed to gain seats in various parts of Europe.
This week marked the resignation of Eamon Ryan from his role as Green leader. Amidst significant political turbulence, Catherine Martin, the party’s deputy leader also withdrew from her high-ranking role within the party stating she had no intention to run for the more superior position. Upon addressing the elections, Ryan expressed disappointment with the results but acknowledged the commendable group of candidates that the party had fielded. Despite the results, he urged resilience in the face of defeat.
The future of the Green party, as per Ryan, is laden with uncertainties. However, he doesn’t perceive the current situation is parallel to the events of 2011. He commends the significant changes the Green government has made in steering the nation’s course towards a greener future, which he views as a historic shift. The unity of the party remains strong, and they are unfaltering in their quest to represent the electorate.
The Green party’s representation in Europe took a hit, losing 20 seats, leaving it with a total of 51. The liberal Renew group, associated with Fianna Fáil, also experienced significant declines and now possesses 81 seats.
Contrary to previous standings, the EPP, which includes Fine Gael as a member, has seen an increase in its seat count, now holding 189 seats in the Parliament. Similarly, the Socialists and Democrats have scaled up to 136 seats. However, the most notable victors were the right and far-right parties which secured a significant seat share.
Despite these gains, the centrist coalition of EPP, S&D, and Renew continue to hold 406 seats out of the 720-seat parliament. This is sufficient to support Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term as European Commission President. Nonetheless, they will require the backing of one of the smaller factions to solidify their majority.
In the previous parliament, the Green group had a pivotal role in the passage of the Green Deal and the nature restoration law. Currently, its reduced delegation raises doubts over the Green Deal’s future. These uncertainties may escalate if the centrists negotiate a deal with the right-leaning National Conservative Group, primarily made up of the Brothers of Italy party led by Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s Prime Minister. Still, a reduction in the Green Deal’s importance is largely regarded as improbable from the Green’s perspective.
Eamon Ryan, upon announcing his resignation, expressed regret over the narrative which suggested that Greens didn’t care about rural Ireland, were burdening people with their solutions, and lacked a connection with ordinary people. He dismissed these allegations as false.
According to Boyle, who concurs that this is a problem, it’s the “traditional” parties, not the Greens, that contributed to the decline of rural life in numerous European regions. Albeit, he and others recognise the Green’s urban-centric demographics and their need to widen their outreach. Both candidates for leadership, Roderic O’Gorman, Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration, and Youth, and Pippa Hackett, Minister of State at the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, with a specific focus on land use and biodiversity, have pledged to bridge this gap. Indeed, addressing this issue forms a significant part of Hackett’s campaign, considering her farming background.
During recent discussions, it seems that the party may have discovered a rising star in Senator Róisín Garvey from Clare. Garvey, a farm dweller from the west of Clare, robustly debated with Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae on RTÉ’s Prime Time this past Tuesday. With a confident approach, she directly challenged the representative from Kerry, arguing that the Green Party has instigated significant changes in rural Ireland. She mentioned hundreds of new bus routes, better broadband connectivity, solar panel installations, and an absence of calls for a reduction in the national herd. Further, Garvey highlighted that part of the carbon tax revenue was utilised to retrofit 400 social homes in rural areas in recent times.
She also pointed out two instances where Healy-Rae claimed merit for local bus services’ establishment and fibre broadband implementation, which she claims are actually Green Party victories. Garvey chastised Healy-Rae, accusing him of refusing to accept change, while readily capitalising on it when it served his interests. In response, Healy-Rae staunchly reiterated his ongoing criticism of the Green Party’s initiatives.
Ryan is filled with uncertainty about the next general election’s outcome, which he will not participate in. According to him, it’ll be unlike the 2011 election, owing to the vastly different circumstances. He cites the transformative changes implemented by their administration as testament to their achievements. Ryan believes the country is experiencing a historical transition towards ‘green’ governance due to their party’s initiatives, which, he claims, is enjoying unity and robust health at present.
Conversely, Boyle is less hopeful but believes that the party will manage to maintain a permanent base that secures them seats in each election cycle. Although they may continue to experience the ‘junior party in government’ stereotype, Boyle thinks they could still win a significant number of seats.
The party performed well in Dublin, and while he doesn’t predict a complete loss, he foresees possible setbacks or retrenchment. Despite being a relatively diminutive party in terms of vote share, and acknowledging that even 2019’s share was modest, Boyle remains hopeful due to their consistent return of a steady percentage of the national vote.
In an increasingly uncertain period, the fundamental Green vote is steadily consolidating. I project that the key Green vote falls between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent. The year 2011 is not in consideration here, as our support was below 2 per cent at that time.”
The sentiments of politicians like Cuffe, who’ve seen many a tide of change, coincide with those expressed by Boyle.
“Having a 40-year experience in Green politics, I’ve observed that each ensuing ‘Green wave’ intensifies. This is a result of the sharpening awareness people harbour regarding the importance of environmental action and the condition of our planet. Nevertheless, this wave’s strength oscillates. It might recede, only to rise again.”
With respect to the Green Party’s influence on the present government, Reidy is of the opinion that it has made a distinct and impactful “Green mark”. She says, “The party operates on clear ideologies and preferences and has achieved these under the current government.”
“In the elections, the party did not do well—there’s no point denying that. However, it hasn’t been completely eradicated. It still remains. In the forthcoming election, it’s reasonably anticipated that it will retain a few seats. As their concerns continue to remain relevant and are, in fact, more significant than ever, the party will bounce back and expand after that.”