Following his unexpected triumphant election into the Dublin European Parliament constituency, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin felt as if he had an “out-of-body experience.” One could have anticipated his next words being something akin to “I’m beyond ecstatic” and “Words just can’t describe it.” Although not a sportsman, his feeling of being completely consumed by the moment is very much the same. Elections for politicians, akin to the All Irelands in sports, are their judgements of truth, evaluating their past actions and outlining their future.
While local and EU Parliament elections might be considered secondary, they provide significant momentum for political groups while directly imparting stern lessons. This result was very evident once the ballot boxes were opened for the first time on the weekend. There was plenty of stimulation to draw from, and many lessons were learned.
So, where do we stand now? The local elections have concluded, with merely three out of 949 seats undecided. These remaining seats are all part of the Newbridge LEA within the Kildare County Council, with the decision now delayed due to a recount. Specifically, there have been three recounts; Sinn Féin’s James Stokes and Aontú’s Melissa Byrne were on a tie following the second recount. Stokes was ruled out since his initial count total was less than Byrne’s. But then, another call for a third recount was made, and that was still in progress overnight.
The prominent discussions surrounding the local elections have been thoroughly explored by this juncture. Fine Gael, despite a slight drop in seats from 255 to 245, and Fianna Fáil, despite a more significant drop from 279 to 246 since 2019, have been projected as the successful ones. In contrast, Sinn Féin, even though they had an increase in seats (from 80 to 102) from the last elections, are seen as the defeated party.
What could explain this? The reference point is the 2020 general election, not the 2019 one, along with various opinion polls conducted since then. All eyes were on Sinn Féin for a significant victory which wasn’t achieved, whereas the other two parties maintained their vote share remarkably well.
The Social Democrats experienced a successful local election, though their European election results fell short. They managed to increase their seat total from 19 to 36 on the local authorities and have now risen to become the second-largest party on the Dublin City Council.
The Green Party faced a moderate performance in the recent elections, managing to hold their ground in Dublin yet losing seats in other areas like Galway, Westmeath, Clare, and Waterford. The party is particularly struck by Ciarán Cuffe’s loss in Dublin, causing significant disappointment.
Simultaneously, there has been an incidence of entryism, where a fairly considerable band of right-wing instigators, some deploying xenophobic and racist ideologies, tried to stir discord and divide through the local elections. Out of them, five councillors promoting clear anti-migration narratives succeeded in securing seats in Dublin, three of them within the Dublin City Council. This might seem like a minor shift, but it carries substantial weight, hinting at more such successes in future Irish elections.
Regarding the European elections, as of the present morning, a mere five of our 14 MEPS have emerged victorious – one in the southern part of Ireland and the remaining four in Dublin. The extensive counting is anticipated to culminate by either Thursday or Friday.
A compelling vote count process played out in Dublin where it eventually revolved around the transfer of Bríd Smith’s (PBP) votes. When she got eliminated, she amassed 28,772 votes and former MEP Clare Daly placed seventh, trailing 5,000 votes behind Ó Ríordáin and Cuffe.
Smith had previously proposed a transfer pact to Daly, proffering her votes, which Daly declined. This decision proved detrimental to Daly, who needed those transferred votes to surpass the Labour TD or Ciaran Cuffe. While Daly secured 6,500 transfers, it was insufficient. In comparison, Ó Riordáin and Cuffe received 4,500 and 2,500 votes respectively, placing Cuffe 1,000 votes in front of Daly.
Reacting ungraciously over her loss, Daly refused media interaction or response to questions and interview requests over the past five years, falsely alleging that RTÉ had not spoken to her for five years, so she would reciprocate the same.
On the other side, Cuffe expressed grace in the face of defeat and was lauded widely, showcasing the mark of a thoughtful and widely respected politician.
The election of MEPs is extremely significant for all political parties, particularly for the Labour Party. Since their last MEP was elected in 2009, their recent triumph signifies a substantial morale boost, indicating their political revival is firmly underway.
Lynn Boylan successfully recaptured a seat that she had lost some five years ago, which brings some redemption for Sinn Féin from the elections. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil performed impressively. It’s clear that at least three MEPs will represent Fianna Fáil (Billy Kelleher, Barry Andrews and Barry Cowen) while Fine Gael is set to have four (Sean Kelly, Regina Doherty, Nina Carbery, and Maria Walsh). Other seats are still to be determined.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin has a marginal possibility of retaking the seat in Ireland South, but appears to have a somewhat slimmer prospect in MNW. The fifth seat in MNW slightly favours Ciaran Mullooly. In Ireland South, along with others, Michael McNamara, Cynthia Ní Mhurchú (FF), and Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion are candidates to watch. Due to the tight competition, forecasting a winner at this point is not plausible.
Notably, the mayoral election in Limerick was decisive from the get-go, bringing a major victory for John Moran, who appeared to have a concrete plan for the welfare of both the city and the county.
Highlighting recommended reads, Eoin Burke-Kennedy provides an in-depth analysis of John Moran, Limerick’s new Mayor. Pat Leahy delves into the topic of celebrity candidates. Miriam Lord points out a new derogative term coined by Simon Harris towards the Sinn Féin leader, labelling it as “Mary Lou-splaining”. Lord also details Harris’s interaction with another opposition leader, offering a brilliant descriptor. Social Democrats leader, Holly Cairns, reflects on recent election experiences, commenting on public disapproval for the frequent squabbles in the Dáil.
“‘Listen up!’ exclaimed the Prime Minister, in a mock threatening gesture towards Mary Lou with a hammer, and attempting to chuck Pádraig into a grinder.”
Cormac McQuinn announced the upcoming speech of Terence O’Rourke, the recent chairman of RTÉ, where he will address Members of Parliament and Lords concerning the broadcaster’s funding requirements, which he wants to be, “reliable, regular, and independent.”
According to O’Rourke, RTÉ is well on its way towards furnishing Catherine Martin, the Media Minister, with an in-depth strategy to carry out the suggestions of specialist panels that looked into the internal issues and staffing concerns at RTÉ. This detailed plan will be completed “in the not too distant future.”
Today, O’Rourke is scheduled to speak at the Media Committee on Media.
Sinn Féin’s leadership is being closely assessed in our daily election coverage.
Here’s the planned schedule for the Dáil Éireann and Seanad Éireann:
Following the Dáil Éireann’s schedule – the Private Members’ Business, the Leaders’ Questions and the Taoiseach’s Questions have already taken place, while the Defence Amendment Bill 2024 and the Planning and Development Bill 2023 will be discussed later. The debate is set to wrap up at midnight and will continue the next day. It is anticipated that the Government will abruptly end the discussion and start the ballot, prompting outrage and increasing conjecture that the government may be preparing for an impending election.
After midnight, the votes on the Social Welfare (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2024 will be deferred and the Dáil will be suspended at 00:30.
In the Seanad Éireann, an address by former President, Mrs Mary Robinson, will take place at 13:00, followed by a discussion on the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund Bill 2024.
The Committees will hold a Health meeting at 9:30, featuring Mary Butler, the Minister of State from the Department of Health. They will discuss the Health (Miscellaneous Provisions) (No. 2) Bill 2024.
At the same time, the Social Protection committee will consider the application of the Universal Credit system in the UK with representatives from the Resolution Foundation, including Mike Brewer.
Lastly, the Transport committee will hold a meeting at 13:30 to explore the impact of the passenger limit at Dublin Airport on Ryanair with representatives from the airline.
Taking part in discussions spanning tourism, arts, sports and media at 13:30, is Terence O’Rourke, the current Chairman of the Board for Raidió Teilifís Éireann.