The recent local elections have indisputably been a setback for Sinn Féin, with results painting a grim picture at various voting centres nationwide. A serious review will be required to identify the problems that led to a mere 11.8 per cent of the national first preference vote for the party. Its leadership, including Mary Lou McDonald, have a substantial task on their hands.
While the outcome was largely disheartening, the re-election of Lynn Boylan as an MEP for Dublin and the election of Kathleen Funchion as a MEP for Ireland South from Carlow-Kilkenny, provided some consolation for the party post-elections. On the other hand, sitting MEP Chris MacManus losing his seat in Midlands-North-West was a disappointment.
The party’s leadership, particularly that of Mary Lou McDonald, has now become a subject of discussion among grassroots members throughout the country. The mention of these conversations have reached journalistic ears indicating that McDonald must soon face these questions head on.
In Ballymahon, Co Longford, Sinn Féin’s local election candidate, John Rooney, has added further credibility to these sentiments, admitting that during campaigning, he encountered mixed reactions to McDonald’s leadership; many voiced dissatisfaction whilst others desired a change in the helm. Despite the potential backlash, over 230 unsuccessful local election candidates will need to gather momentum in light of the recent adverse election results.
While Rooney supports McDonald’s leadership, he admits some constituents have expressed doubts about whether her tenure has perhaps reached its conclusion. He insists the responsibility lies with the party to determine how best to interpret and act upon such feedback. Unless McDonald voluntarily steps down, or fails to gain public support from a party TD, it is predominantly assumed that she will spearhead Sinn Féin in the forthcoming general elections.
Her immediate challenge will be to motivate party members. It is discreetly shared by a party coordinator that defeated candidates are not only crestfallen but irate as well. A number of them feel short-changed by the party’s central establishment or probably felt inadequately resourced during the run-up to the polls. Some others opine that it was fairly obvious well in advance that the candidates were over-represented and that the number should have been trimmed. Before the general election, the party must address these concerns diligently, including how to ration its resources better and choose the optimum number of candidates.
Leading a race for an extended duration of time is no small feat — people yearn for change, vote for it, and if not delivered, feel dejected with time, as stated by Louth TD Ruairí Ó Murchú.
His party member, Rooney who did not secure a seat, had a hard race ahead of him given the substantial number of existing members vying for positions across Longford. While he obtained the party’s approval to run only in February, discussions had begun as early as the previous October. His campaigning tools arrived only by mid-April, limiting the extent of his campaign operations.
“From the get-go, I was aware of my disadvantage, but I thrive on challenges. I could not start my door-to-door canvassing till mid-April, which put me behind my competitors,” says Rooney.
Rooney shares that during his canvassing, the main concerns residents raised were living expenses, immigration, and local issues. In his home town of Edgeworthstown, there was a glaring scarcity of rental homes and a marked decline in local service provision.
The political group has been widely criticised over its election outreach strategy with numerous voters from various local constituencies reporting that they were never approached by a Sinn Féin representative. The situation around the nation is rather inconsistent: in certain districts, every household was approached three times, while in others, teams were overextended due to a surplus of candidates. An exit poll conducted by Ireland Thinks surveying 2,882 voters nationwide indicated that more voters encountered candidates from Fianna Fáil (35 per cent) and Fine Gael (34 per cent) than from Sinn Féin (18 per cent).
Aidan Regan, from UCD’s School of Politics and International Relations, stated that this is undeniably an area the party must improve upon in determining its future strategies. “It appears that the expectation was for them to excel at the grassroots level, recognising that they lack the long-standing presence that other parties benefit from and thus requiring them to put in a greater effort than groups such as Fianna Fáil,” he explained. “Their campaign visibility was also insufficient, and they didn’t canvass as much as other parties. This raises the question of justification.”
Possible consequences could be linked to voter turnout, which may have influenced the party’s success and needs examination. The national turnout was gauged at approximately 49 per cent, marking a record low for a local election.
Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at UCC, argues that turnout is a significant problem for Sinn Féin.”Sinn Féin has the burden of identifying their missteps,” she said. “A deep-diving review must be conducted as it’s unlikely that there’s a single reason. Turnout in local elections is particularly challenging for them.”
In addition, she suggested that the candidate selection procedure needs scrutiny. “They don’t have a high number of established candidates, a factor which often carries more weight than the party name. However, their strategy should not be rooted in past contest outcomes. The future elections will be unlike the previous ones, with key issues corresponding more with Sinn Féin’s agenda: housing, healthcare, cost of living. There will certainly be discussions on immigration as well, but it will likely be considered within a wider range of topics.”
Gary Murphy, a political professor at DCU, has advised that the party needs to clarify its stance on the comments made by McDonald where she expressed her desire to see the average housing prices in Dublin reduce to approximately €300,000, down from the existing €420,000. This has been used as a political weapon by their rivals, who frequently questioned her methodology to achieve this. Murphy noted, “This vague messaging regarding their stand might have been a significant reason for their poor performance in Dublin. They were portrayed as an inconsistent party by their competitors.”
Furthermore, the members appear to be perturbed by the perceived inconsistency and uncertainty in key policies like immigration, which became a hot topic during the campaign.
Prior to the elections, issues around immigration escalated as tents were set-up and then removed at various sites around Dublin’s Grand Canal. Government parties, primarily Fine Gael, attempted to tackle the apprehensions over immigration by streamlining application and processing time rules. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin faced criticism from a portion of its traditional voter base, leading to a part of them gravitated towards right-wing candidates. They were arguing that Sinn Féin was not addressing the issue adequately and accused party candidates of being “sell-outs” and “traitors”.
Murphy suggests achieving clarity on their immigration stand and avoid promising unrealistic solutions to voters. “Although housing issue might take precedence in the general elections, could they assign an immigration spokesperson? Someone who can deliver a clear message,” he added.
Critics have pointed out this week, including Waterford councillor John Hearne, that they could no longer try to appeal to all without a clear focus. Hearne criticised the party’s centralised structure and voiced the sentiment that the party was striving to be a ‘jack of all trades’.
Power within Sinn Féin is largely concentrated on the national officer board and this leaves a number of party politicians feeling ostracised from decision-making processes. Hearne expressed these sentiments by noting that electoral victories are not achieved by secluded, behind-closed-door decision makers, but by the active players taking charge on the ground. In order to avoid alienation of the common members, a reconsideration of this centralised structure is necessary, posits Aidan Regan.
Sinn Féin’s primary appeal to voters has been the promise of change; a proposition initially highlighted by Ruairí Ó Murchú during their campaign. However, maintaining such a promise consistently is challenging as time progresses, especially when no significant change is seen. It is crucial, therefore, that the concept of ‘change’ as viable is continuously reinforced to the public.
As a general election looms closer, the appropriateness of the party’s ‘change’ message will have to be reassessed by McDonald. Nonetheless, Gary Murphy argues that abandoning this central message at this juncture would be a misguided move. He suggests that, despite the satisfaction of some with the present administration by either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, changing the central ‘change’ message is counterintuitive.
Murphy further advises that Sinn Féin should emphasise their message of change by clearly delineating what exactly that change would entail. By presenting a comprehensive plan of projected actions for their initial 100 days in office, voters would have a concrete idea of what they are voting for.
The party could benefit from addressing their dwindling support among the younger demographic, particularly due to a perceived disconnection in relation to climate change. Mr. Reidy opines that their environmental record is less than perfect, mirroring the sentiment of the Green Party’s performance in the recent elections, and Mrs. Regan supports this by highlighting the party’s inconsistency on this issue.
Next on their agenda is arresting a serious issue – the forthcoming UK general election on the 4th of July holding in the North where 18 MPs will be elected to represent each constituency using the first-past-the-post system. Given recent events, the pressure is on Sinn Féin, who currently hold seven seats and hope to maintain all. Retaining all would be seen as a positive result.
Internally, party officials acknowledge the significance of the local and European elections and urge unity. Despite this, the party’s officials maintain confidence in McDonald’s leadership capacity. “She is our greatest asset,” a high-ranking party member states, stressing her national stature and her effective communication.
On the other hand, if McDonald were to be replaced amidst a busy election cycle, it’s believed that opponents would seize the opportunity to depict the move as evidence of internal turmoil and a lack of confidence, which could be more damaging.
After the election aftermath, there will be increased introspection. While political figures from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil revel in Sinn Féin’s decline, experts urge caution around excessive celebration.
“Since 2009, there’s been remarkable instability in Irish politics. Sinn Féin capitalized on this in the 2020 general election, and they could be paying the price for it now,” warns Mr. Murphy. “That’s why the Government ought to exercise caution about pursuing a general election.”