The current political hiatus has unveiled the potential for political parlour games, which captivate those in the Leinster House. Despite the criticality of ministerial revamp, it remains a fringe sport for most. Speculating about who comprises Simon Harris’s backroom team is an even more niche interest. Part of this discourse has included discussions around the prospective taoiseach’s talks with Independent TDs, even those whose votes he doesn’t necessarily require.
Far from being irrelevant, stroking his margin becomes imperative in maintaining momentum. If he can depend on a relatively broad effective majority, his promise to persevere takes on a more valid tone. However, as political unpredictability rises, honing the aptitude to navigate the murky waters of dealmaking with Independents or smaller factions could be an important political skill in the future. This is true even when it comes to the formation of a government.
What might make this possible? Two intertwining factors play a role here.
Firstly, the potential for re-election of a government founded on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil has surfaced. For the past few years, much political analysis has operated under the assumption that the electorate’s enthusiasm for change in 2020 will mirror in the next general elections. Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald has expressed the challenge therein, during the campaign for a Yes/Yes vote in the unsuccessful family and care referendums: “Bear in mind, it’s been four years since anyone cast their vote – that’s a long duration to nurture a narrative of change and maintain the energy around it.” If current trends persist, Sinn Féin could experience a two-year polling downturn by the summer. With four years plagued by crises and a deteriorating global ambiance (some European nations surmise the continent is at a “pre-war” stage), a stability-centric ticket could potentially appeal to moderate voters.
Notably, the recent referendum results have led to a reemphasis on traditional or conservative issues within a section of the political system. This is partly reflected in a more widespread scepticism about elements of the socially progressive and green agendas.
The pivotal question is who, in this situation, might support the two Civil War factions. The current general belief (and for the time being, the Coalition’s declared preference) is that the Greens might step back into the role – although their popularity is merely adequate. If that doesn’t hold, another amalgamation of centre-left groups might signify continuity.
It is yet to be seen how the significant reorganisation occurring in Irish politics will pan out. The impact of referendum outcomes has prompted a certain political segment to reassert traditional or conservative matters, somewhat reflected in an increased scepticism around socially progressive and green issues. Although Ireland is not about to backtrack on years of societal advances, there is proof that at the very least, a significant change in tone is in progress. The response of the major political parties to this change, and its aftermath following the next election, are pivotal factors.
The Dáil could potentially become more chaotic, offering even fewer obvious routes to power than its earlier two versions. In such milieu, the third supporter of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition could be just as likely to come from conservative as liberal groups.
For Fine Gael, Harris is the crucial benchmark in this transformation: as a Cabinet minister, he ardently supported the mainstream aspects of the agenda for change. However, since his ascension to leadership, he has focused on law and order, rural subjects, and small business-related issues under the influence of backbenchers and allies, this is expected to be the main theme of his Ardfheis speech today. Harris, despite his modest performance as a Cabinet minister, especially in Health, is notable for his abilities as a strategist and orator – Harris is known to have a keen sense of political acuity.
Irish voters are seemingly swaying towards a more conservative perspective, as noted by several key figures from the No campaign in the recent referendum. The likelihood that the two leading Civil War parties might concurrently steer the upcoming government brings the possibility of drawing partners from a Dáil that’s projected to lean more towards a less liberal stance. There also appears to be a dwindling enthusiasm from these parties to accommodate liberal and progressive symbols. As one insider from Fianna Fáil quipped while commenting on the Social Democrats last week, “If you thought managing the Greens was challenging, you are yet to see the worst.”
Additionally, an enlarged number of Independents may form part of the Dáil, suggesting a complex configuration with three major parties, an independent group and several smaller parties. The outcome could be a rather intricate Dáil, presenting fewer straightforward routes to establishing influence, compared to the last two versions. Consequently, the third element of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition could just as likely involve conservative factions as liberal ones.
Non-affiliated deputies might command a more significant role in the government structure and potentially offer considerable support from opposition. This could translate into a more formal or practical “confidence and supply”-like engagement. While such a government would probably adhere to fundamental political structures, thwarting fiscal or industrial policy adjustments, it could lend a fresh perspective to the programming and issue response strategies of the government. However, this mode of operation could prove less robust in times of crisis, potentially tarnishing the image of the two Civil War parties, whilst enhancing the political value of tactically discerning and effective conservative Independents. Notable examples, such as Verona Murphy and Michael McDowell, could prosper within this emerging political environment.
In this context, the ongoing exchange of views between Simon Harris and the Independents acquires fresh relevance. The persistent prominence of the Independents serves as an unusual aspect of Irish politics that shows no signs of receding – quite the contrary, it seems.