As autumn kicks off, the political sphere in the coming weeks will reignite with the year’s first Cabinet assembly on Tuesday, heightened budget deliberations and murmurs of an approaching general election. Despite the summer seeming uneventful, the vacant Leinster House narrates a distinct tale. Beneath this apparently calm facade, a significant shift has been in the pipeline in Irish politics, with a flurry of election planning continuing behind the scenes.
What began as a few veteran TDs declaring their future absence from political life has quickly escalated to an increasing count. Among those seeking a future in Europe, 33 politicians elected in 2020 have confirmed they will not be contesting in the upcoming elections.
Out of these, 27 are TDs entering retirement, many of them bearing recognisable names and political influence. Together, they have an amazing 600 years of experience in the Dáil. The exit of these political doyens will serve to bring forth a fresh wave of candidates in the Leinster House. While a portion of the newcomers are kin to the retiring TDs, the majority of the new faces are not. The upcoming Dáil is set not only to appear different but will be larger, with a rise in the tally of TDs from 160 to 174 following a recommendation by the Electoral Commission, a response to the growing population.
The political landscape will also be shaped by new gender requirements. To retain state funding, 40 percent of each party’s general election nominees will have to be female.
In recent news on Friday, another eminent political figure confirmed their retirement. Peter Fitzpatrick, an independent TD for Louth, announced his decision not to contest in the forthcoming general election. Having been initially elected as part of Fine Gael in 2011, he abandoned the party following feelings of isolation due to his opposition to the Eighth Amendment’s repeal.
So far, the most drastic change is evident in Fine Gael with 15 incumbent TDs stepping away from politics. Most recently, Joe Carey, a TD for Clare from Fine Gael, announced his withdrawal. He made it known on Monday that he was giving up his post as a public representative following medical advice.
Charlie Flanagan, former Laois-Offaly TD and one-time Minister for Justice, whose father also made a significant contribution to public service, believes it’s the right moment for him to step down, making room for a new generation of political minds. He and his father jointly account for 80 years of service and 23 general election appearances.
Flanagan asserts the importance of rejuvenation within the Fine Gael party and in politics in general. With numerous ambitious and experienced new candidates ready to step forward, he feels they can introduce fresh perspectives and ideas. He sees this as essential for political evolution, contributing positively to the party’s life.
Despite the opportunities this presents for Fine Gael’s rejuvenation, the loss of influential figures and a large part of the parliamentary group presents a significant challenge. Key retiring figures, Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney, and Richard Bruton, each hold 80 years of Dáil experience between them.
Varadkar’s Dublin West constituency, due to gain an additional seat in the next election, is likely to hold a selection convention prior to Fine Gael’s candidate selection deadline on 22nd September, fueling further speculation around election timings. Emer Currie, a Fine Gael senator and Councillor Ted Leddy are among potential candidates. This time, getting at least one elected might be Fine Gael’s focal point, rather than the pursuit of a second seat.
The situation in Simon Coveney’s Cork South Central constituency, which will also increase its seats, mirrors this. With Coveney’s personal voter base no longer in play, the possibility of securing a second seat seems uncertain. Councillors Shane O’Callaghan and Una McCarthy have been selected to run. In Dublin Bay North, traditionally under Richard Bruton, Fine Gael has chosen Naoise Ó Muirí and Aoibhinn Tormey as potential successors. The party likely has a guaranteed seat here, but any further wins will depend heavily on the lasting effect of the spark ignited by Simon Harris.
Fianna Fáil will certainly feel the impact of losing such experienced politicians as Barry Cowen, the former Offaly TD who has now taken up an MEP role in Midlands North West, and seasoned party stalwart Éamon Ó Cuív, who has consistently held his Galway West seat since the 1992 general election but will soon be stepping down.
Fianna Fáil is expected to round off their selection conventions by September’s end, with indications suggesting they’ll be favouring candidates well-known in the public eye. The competition in Galway West will see broadcaster Gráinne Seoige joining the race, while journalist and broadcaster Alison Comyn has declared her intention to run in Louth.
However, it’s not just Fianna Fáil feeling the pinch of experienced TDs moving to European roles; the Labour party too has experienced some attrition. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, once considered a potential contender for the party leadership, was elected as a Dublin MEP. Brendan Howlin, the party’s leader between 2016 and 2020 and a three-time Cabinet minister, is soon to retire from his 42-year career in the Dáil. He expressed less worry over the impact on individual parties, but was more concerned about the potential effect on Dáil operations due to this loss of seasoned politicians.
Howlin revealed that he has been preparing for a smooth transition in his Wexford constituency for quite some time, to ensure that the Labour party retains the seat after his retirement. Cllr George Lawlor is set to take his place.
Nonetheless, other areas face a more tumultuous succession plan. In Cork East, for instance, where Sean Sherlock is retiring, 14,400 residents of Mallow and its neighbouring regions – previously part of the Cork East constituency – have been added to Cork North Central. This decision fragmented Sherlock’s base, and played a key role in his decision to step away from politics.
With the imminent general election, there remains a key question unanswered: What kind of substantial effect will the departure of these seasoned politicians have on voting results?
Influenced by the present political scenario, the course of voting in each constituency can vary. The Labour party, including other boutique parties, are addressing the same situation. An upheaval is anticipated in the Social Democrats, with the anticipated departure of co-founders Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall. There seems to be a sense of uncertainty amongst constituents faithful to Murphy and Shortall, as they express doubts about being supportive towards the substitute candidates. The party has nominated housing activist Rory Hearne for Shortall in Dublin North West and Aidan Farrell, a councillor, for Murphy in Kildare North.
Also set for a leadership transformation is the Green Party, with the retirement of ex-party leader Eamon Ryan, making way for the former lord mayor Hazel Chu to contend in Dublin Bay North.
People Before Profit will be seeing Bríd Smith depart, leaving behind Cllr Hazel De Nortúin as her successor in Dublin South Central—a position she had been diligently grooming.
Sinn Féin forms another focal point. Its issue relates less to retiring TDs and is more strategical, yet Louth TD Imelda Munster’s absence will be felt after she secured a commendable 24 per cent primary preference vote in 2020. Critiques related to Sinn Féin’s approach in the local and European elections include nominating many newcomers when the Sinn Féin vote had seen an unexpected slump.
Party insiders divulge that a minimum of two candidates will be put forward in most constituencies. The number of candidates to be reduced from their originally planned three is yet to be ascertained. In regions such as Donegal, a third candidate accompanying Pearse Doherty and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn might still be a wise move.
Nicole Ryan has been selected to represent Sinn Féin in Cork North West this week. The drug education social enterprise leader, Ryan, is expected to seize the opportunity offered by Fine Gael’s current vulnerability in the constituency, due to Michael Creed’s impending exit. Housing, a central concern in this constituency, is anticipated to be harnessed by Sinn Féin in its campaigning. The constituents also await candidates from Fine Gael, presenting Cllr John Paul O’Shea and Cllr Michael Creed, Michael’s relative. Ryan will also have to tackle Fianna Fáil’s incumbency advantage, while contenders Aindrias Moynihan and Michael Moynihan (unrelated to each other) are most likely to rerun.
Sinn Féin continues to strategise in a multitude of constituencies, including Carlow Kilkenny, where Kathleen Funchion was the poll topper in 2020. However, she won’t be in the running for the Dáil this time around due to her securing a seat as an MEP for Ireland South in June.
In Louth, Imelda Munster’s retirement paves the way for sitting TD Ruairí Ó Murchú to make another run, in an effort to secure the Dundalk vote. Joining him will be Cllr Joanna Byrne of Drogheda, who managed to maintain her position in Drogheda Urban in June’s local elections, a feat her three female co-runners were unable to achieve.
Byrne’s outspoken stance on the housing crisis evidences that for Sinn Féin, the upcoming election will likely focus on returning to foundational issues.