Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant cautioned on Wednesday that Binyamin Netanyahu’s unwillingness to contemplate a plan beyond Hamas rule in Gaza could undermine military triumphs and plunge Israel into a difficult and troubling situation without a practical exit approach. This sensational disclosure at a press conference revealed his disagreements with the prime minister that have been voiced in war cabinet meetings for months and then revealed to the press.
Still, after seven months of conflict – Israel’s most protracted – Netanyahu remains unmoved. He refuses to consider other options until Israel has achieved “total victory” over Hamas, an end that has never been concretely explained. In the meantime, Israeli troops have already resumed combat in parts of northern Gaza from which they had previously retreated, marking the third recurrence in certain districts.
Four potential outcomes exist for Gaza following the war, none of which bode well for Netanyahu: Hamas continues to maintain control; the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) seize Gaza and Israel becomes liable for the civilian populace; Palestinians without ties to Hamas (either the Palestinian Authority or factions allied with the governmental body in Ramallah) seize control with backing from Arabic countries and the global community, or a state resembling Somalia, reigned by armed groups, emerges.
Pressure from the right wing of the coalition government has prompted Netanyahu to evade in-depth discussions concerning what is being described as the “Day After”. The coalition would be abandoned by the two rightest parties if Israel acceded to any influence for the Palestinian Authority, which they view as being as perilous a terrorist group as Hamas, and they have insisted on Netanyahu replacing Gallant.
Members of Netanyahu’s Likud party, along with the extreme right, are keen to see a resurgence of Israel’s occupation of Gaza and, ideally, whenever possible, the reintroduction of Jewish settlements that were dismantled during the disengagement of 2005 under then prime minister Ariel Sharon.
Nevertheless, to instate military rule in Gaza, the IDF would require multiple divisions that it currently lacks, especially in order to maintain a high level of war readiness in the north and continued activity in the West Bank.
The debate regarding the postwar setup is regarded as crucial by the majority of the war cabinet and the entirety of the security institution’s professional staff. The Biden administration has likewise been persistently urging Israel for several months to consider the “Day After”.
Nonetheless, even with Gallant’s challenging stance, Netanyahu will undeniably prioritise his personal political continuity above what is commonly viewed as the country’s benefit. He will persistently delay his actions, dodge making crucial decisions and emphasise more on what should be sidelined rather than what needs to be the focus.