Following Binyamin Netanyahu’s inaugural encounter with Bill Clinton in 1996, Clinton asked one of his assistants: “Who exactly is the superpower here?” Decades after, four subsequent American Presidents seem to find no reason to question who’s more dominant between U.S and Israeli leaders, with Netanyahu asserting extreme influence over the U.S leadership, especially under the reign of President Joe Biden.
President Biden’s aspirations to disentangle the U.S from Middle Eastern affairs seem to have been thwarted more than any other President’s. With recent Israeli intrusions on Lebanese soil, and the potential for a full-fledged war with Iran looming, Biden’s term could potentially be shaped by events occurring in the Middle East.
According to Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, and current Haaretz newpaper’s columnist, “Netanyahu is extremely adept in navigating the political landscape in Washington, even besting numerous US politicians”, and allegedly, he’s successfully manipulated Biden’s leadership.
By Netanyahu’s standards though, the current predicament resembles a plot from the TV show, House of Cards, with the Middle Eastern events gunning to potentially impact the results of the U.S Presidential elections slated for November 5th.
Following the murder of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbullah leader, by Israeli Defence Forces, Iran retaliated by launching 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel, though no Israeli lives were lost. Regardless, some Iranian rockets bypassed Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system, with some landing near an F-35 airbase in the Negev desert and another narrowly missing the Israeli spy agency Mossad office in Tel Aviv.
This recent encounter with Iran diverges from Biden administration’s public admonishment of Netanyahu from a similar encounter in April. This incident could be blamed for high oil prices and consequently reduced consumer sentiment – a telling sign as Americans head to the polls.
Thus, Biden publicly acknowledged his discussions with Netanyahu about a possible Israeli attack on Iranian oilfields, in spite of Iran’s conveyed threats of retaliation with attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
When questioned about a possible outcome, Biden stumbled on his response. “‘I believe that could be somewhat… anyhow,” he retorted. The incomplete comment perhaps hinted at his concern that such a elevation in circumstances might severely hinder Kamala Harris’s prospects of defeating Donald Trump in the following month’s election.
However, it is Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, not Biden, who holds the clout to decide the next move. From past events, it’s clear that it isn’t likely that Netanyahu will take into consideration Biden’s discreet pleas for caution.
Says Marwan al-Muasher, Jordan’s previous foreign minister presently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Netanyahu is in a secure position.” He doubts if the Prime Minister would want to make any move that would aid Harris’s election chances.
On Monday, the first anniversary of the horrific killing of 1,200 by Hamas terrorists was marked by Israel. Following that dreadful event, prospects for Netanyahu’s political success seemed to fade. Israeli intelligence’s missteps in identifying the signs of the impending Hamas manoeuvre and Netanyahu’s tactical misjudgement of dividing IDF forces from Gaza to the West Bank constituted Israel’s most significant strategy failure since the 1973 Yom Kippur assault on Israel by Egypt.
Yet against all odds, Netanyahu – often referred to as the Harry Houdini of Israeli politics – has found a way to endure and even thrive. Recent polls suggest that if an immediate election were to be called now, his party Likud would come out on top. A significant majority of Israelis are against a bi-national resolution with the Palestinians, something Biden espouses as the ultimate objective for Israel. Netanyahu, on the other hand, has adamantly abstained from clarifying the “post-war” political strategy for the Gaza conflict, consistently advocated by Biden.
“We were under the impression that Netanyahu had exhausted all his fortune,” says Paul Salem from the Middle East Institute based in Washington, speaking from Lebanon, “But it appears he had a few more tricks up his sleeve.”
Biden is merely one amongst numerous US dignitaries to be outsmarted by Netanyahu. In March, Chuck Schumer, the Jewish-American Democratic Senate majority leader, encouraged new Israeli elections and new leadership. “Netanyahu has lost his path by letting his political ambition eclipse Israel’s best interests,” Schumer voiced in a Senate floor speech.
A couple of weeks ago, an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus was attacked by Israel, resulting in the death of 16 individuals, many of whom were high-ranking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This incident propelled the conflict between Israel and Iran into the lime light and marked a turning point in Netanyahu’s political career. A speech made to the United States Congress by Netanyahu in July gathered applause from the joint houses, with Schumer being one among those clapping.
Boosting Netanyahu’s political re-emergence to the most significant degree was his tactical shift of focus from Gaza to Lebanon in recent times. The successful mission carried out by Mossad involving the detonation of numerous Hizbullah communication devices did much to shift the narrative. Despite the loss of several Lebanese lives in the operation – alongside those lost to Israeli raids on Beirut in recent weeks – the technical prowess showcased instilled a sense of restored dignity in the dented morale of Israel’s intelligence community.
In the face of the Biden administration, Netanyahu has time and again come across as contrary. A pattern has emerged wherein Netanyahu seems to comply with Washington only to act in direct opposition. Biden appears to be left powerless, whether in matters of disagreements over the conditions of a Gaza ceasefire, hostage release, or more recently, attempts at formulating a 21-day ceasefire with Hizbullah. Pinkas remarks on this by employing a metaphor, stating that while the Biden administration might be seen as dealing with “autumn damp,” what they’re really dealing with is Netanyahu’s dominant manoeuvres.
There’s a sense of uncertainty about the future of American politics as well as the Middle East, and the actions taken in the following days may have a significant impact. At some stage, there will be retaliation from Israel against Iran, although the nature of this retaliation is yet to be seen. Will it be defined as an “escalate to de-escalate” move, as was the case with the Hizbullah attack, or will it mark an escalation of the conflict with Iran?
Conjecture over a potential Israeli plot to overthrow the Iranian government remains. In a recent address to the “Persian” people, Netanyahu expressed his belief in an imminent change in the country, saying “When Iran is finally free… everything will be different. Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace.”
Last weekend, Jared Kushner, Trump’s kin and previous Middle East advisor, championed for American support for an Israeli endeavour to overturn the ruling regime in Iran. He expressed his sentiments on social media, decrying iran’s vulnerability and vehemently arguing that failure to use the opportunity to curtail its threat is an act of irresponsibility.
Yet, even less ambitious actions by Israel could lead to adverse consequences. This is according to Jeffrey Feltman, who previously served as a regional envoy for Biden and was previously at the helm of the US State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs during Obama’s tenure. Feltman speculates that all signs suggest more unexpected moves from Netanyahu in the coming weeks. He points towards an alignment of indicators, such as Israel’s short and long term goals, public opinion and Netanyahu’s fight for political survival.
On a tactical level, Israel’s intentional attack on Hizbullah and invasion of southern Lebanon served to assure the Israeli citizens that Netanyahu was actively working to facilitate the return of approximately 60,000 displaced Israelis to their homes in the north.
Strategically, Israel’s military operations serve to upend the balance of power in the region, by breaking down Hizbullah’s command and placing Iran on the defensive. This new period in the post-October 7th war has received widespread support amongst Israeli citizens. Moreover, this course of events is also securing Netanyahu’s political future. With his role as prime minister intact, Netanyahu can stave off a slew of criminal allegations pending against him. Feltman claims that this is Netanyahu’s lifebuoy.
Democrat supporters in Washington are increasingly expressing concern over Biden’s inability to control Netanyahu and its potential implications for Harris’s chances in a closely contested election.
On assuming office, Biden had vowed to extricate the US from pitfalls in Afghanistan and the Middle East. Adopting a similar stance to Obama, who expended much of his second term combating the Islamic State terrorist organisation, Biden had aspired for his government to be recognised for their focus on the challenges from China in the Indo-Pacific. However, Biden now faces the possibility of completing his term with the Middle East ablaze and a bolstered American military presence in the region, including 40,000 US troops and two aircraft carriers stationed there. The situation in the Middle East could also undermine his enduring legacy by paving the way for Trump’s return. Still, there seems to be a lack of consensus on whether Biden will modify his strategy.
“Why Biden has remained so reticent is something that no one can provide a satisfactory response to,” al-Muasher laments.
In helping Israel eradicate Hamas, Biden pursued a dual goal post October 7. His first objective was to ascertain a strategy for Gaza’s future leadership that could potentially lead to a binational resolution. His secondary target was to curb the possible escalation of the conflict in the region.
The initial target looks improbable now, with not merely the Israelis but also the Palestinians doubting the viability of a sovereign state alongside Israel. The second objective is dangerously close to falling apart as well. Should the recent unrest persist through to the election, the likelihood of Biden’s presidency culminating in disappointment is set to increase. – The Financial Times Limited 2024 Copyright.