The conversation at the margins of gatherings, at after-hours socials, and along the European Parliament’s corridors have revolved around a single burning question over recent weeks: Has she secured the necessary votes? In order to secure her position for a second term as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen needs the backing of 361 out of 720 MEPs in a decisive vote set to take place on Thursday afternoon.
Should she not succeed, it’s highly unlikely the German politician will get another opportunity. The grind of EU’s complex political system would press on, leading to a new candidate being proposed for the Commission’s lead role. Despite gaining the majority approval of the 27 national heads last month for a second term as EU’s top authority, the parliamentary vote was always set to be the real challenge.
The Commission serves as the European Union’s executive agency where laws are put forward, making the role of its president one of the key positions in European politics. Five years ago, Von der Leyen, then a relatively lesser-known German minister, barely made it through by a thin margin of nine votes. This next vote may have similarly narrow results. The vote is set to occur at around midday Irish time on Thursday, during the inaugural assembly of the new European Parliament held in Strasbourg, where voting sessions normally take place once a month.
If Ursula Von der Leyen were not to succeed in clearing the parliamentary vote, even having received the endorsement of national heads, it would be a first in history and could cause significant turbulence. The anticipation is high as this pivotal vote on her future hangs in the balance.
In the parliament, there exist three major groups, accountable for a total of 400 MEPs, who are backing a subsequent term for von der Leyen. The groups in question are the centre-right grouping European People’s Party (EPP), inclusive of the Fine Gael, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), where Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin is a member, and the moderate Renew, which comprises the MEPs from Fianna Fáil, as well as Independent members Michael McNamara and Ciaran Mullooly.
Recent times saw former Irish premier Leo Varadkar contacting Mullooly to assess his potential support for von der Leyen. A minor fraction of MEPs from the three aforementioned groups, von der Leyen’s EPP included, choose to differ from their colleagues, deciding against voting for her. Notably, certain coup members from France and Slovenia have already indicated their lack of support. Countering this, the four MEPs from Fine Gael firmly support von der Leyen, whereas the four from Fianna Fáil, together with McNamara and Ó Ríordáin, have stated their dissent for her second term.
Notably, Cypriot MEP Fidias Panayiotou, known for his viral social media stunts, seems to have joined the opposition against von der Leyen as per the poll results he ran on a social platform. Lately, von der Leyen has devoted her time analysing the numbers and identifying potential sympathetic MEPs. The presence of dissenters in the EPP, Renew and S&D means von der Leyen needs to seek votes from elsewhere in order to secure her position.
Finally, von der Leyen is forecasted to receive support from a fraction of the Green assembly’s 53 MEPs, the majority of whom either refrained from voting or voted against her five years back.
It appears more probable that she will secure the endorsement from a selection of the 53 MEPs affiliated with the Green Party, many of whom either refrained from voting or opposed her five years prior. Amid losing numerous seats in the recent European elections and facing staunch opposition from right-leaning factions on their climate initiatives, it is believed that the Green Party leadership will advise the MEPs to rally behind von der Leyen, aiming to leverage influence in the forthcoming commission.
Von der Leyen is also anticipated to garner a measure of support from the nationalistic, Far-right elements of the parliament, likely inclusive of Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party among others.
A high-ranking EU official, deeply familiar with the workings of the parliament, tentatively suspects von der Leyen will be secure in her position. The secret nature of the vote allows for party politicians backing von der Leyen to withdrawn support discreetly. Conversely, some MEPs, unwilling to publicly voice their support, may cast their vote in her favour at the moment of decision. The general atmosphere within the parliament in recent weeks doesn’t suggest a major confrontation brewing.
Should von der Leyen not reach the necessary support, it would initiate several weeks of intense political manoeuvring. The 27 EU leaders would need to convene for an urgent summit to agree on an alternative candidate for the up-coming commission president.
Reiterating, the same high-ranking EU official speculates that von der Leyen should be safe, potentially by as many as 20 votes. However, if she were to be dismissed by a small margin, it would not come as a complete shock. The expected two-hour duration for the casting and calculation of votes will undoubtedly induce an anxious wait for her.