Former US climate envoy John Kerry suggests that while Ireland may escape some of the harshest impacts of climate change, the nation, like all others globally, will not evade the consequences of sea-level rise. He further implies that as a affluent country within the Global North, Ireland will also face the reality of climate migration if the international response to the Paris Agreement, the 2016 climate treaty, falls short.
Transitioning away from fossil fuels, a commitment made by nearly 200 countries, including the most significant carbon contributors, at the 2020 UN climate conference Cop28 in Dubai, Kerry argues, must be “fair, equitable and orderly.” He cautions that a disorderly transition could result in mass displacement of people who no longer have the ability to produce food, especially in Africa. Their migration paths would most likely lead them to countries rich in natural resources.
Kerry was in Dublin to accept the annual Impact Ireland Award, given by Taoiseach Simon Harris at an event hosted by VentureWave Capital, an investment firm chaired by former Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Nowadays, Kerry dedicates a significant portion of his time to incentivising low-risk investments in less developed nations within the Global South.
While attention to these regions is crucial, he maintains that the real success in combating climate change lies within the developed world’s ability to reach a targeted 43-50 percent reduction in emissions by 2030, and achieving net zero by 2050.
Kerry criticises prominent carbon emitting nations such as the US and China for their slow progress, alleging this inertia is causing distress for many vulnerable and less developed nations. He warns that the growing resentment should not be ignored as it could instigate global conflict and alter international business and diplomatic relationships.
He does not desire to involve himself in the US elections. Set against a context of hard-to-reduce global emissions, record high temperatures, extensive flood damage across all continents in the previous month, and the potential of Donald Trump – a man who labels global warming a scam – being re-elected as US president, he chooses not to consider this prospect for clear reasons.
His belief stands firm that the globe has collectively agreed to switch to renewable energy, though the pace and means of this transition may vary. The real question, he states, is not whether we will transition to low or zero-carbon economies – that is inevitable – but whether we can make this switch before the worst effects of the current crisis hit.
He’s confident that Trump’s perceived power is limited, as the move toward clean energy is unyielding. In his view, any nation that lags behind will inevitably face economic hardships. His fear is that surges in oceanic temperatures, particularly in locations like Florida where they are now akin to a hot tub, are intensifying violent weather conditions. This was demonstrated by Hurricane Helene, one of the most damaging storms the US has ever faced.
He reflects on the 1988 meeting when Nasa scientist Jim Hansen detailed the existence and progress of climate change to the US Congress. This eventually led to the creation of the UN Cops (Conferences of the Parties). Attempts were made to form a structure to engage countries in addressing the crisis, but they failed to reach consensus on having a mandatory framework that set a global standard everyone should abide by. He notes that politics and ideologies were among the many factors obstructing agreement.
Intent on advocating for accelerated action, he will be observing from the periphery of this year’s 29th Cop in Baku. He highlights that we have been warned for the past three decades about the existential nature of this crisis, and that predictions made are now unfolding. However, these changes are manifesting on an even larger, faster and more destructive scale than anticipated.
He laments the continuous quest for “more oil, more gas, more drilling”, pinpointing the combustion of fossil fuels as a major concern.
Kerry advocates for the realisation of the many advantages that can be gleaned from a pristine environment. He fervently believes that individuals can enjoy improved living standards, breathe purer air, and contribute to a healthier planet. He is confident, too, that a popular movement for change is attainable, one led especially by youth, the driving forces behind the most substantial societal transformations seen in recent years.
In his view, young people are ready and eager for leadership that allows them to select the path towards a better future. Key to this is the formulation of supportive policies and encouragement of a motivated private sector. Kerry insists on the essential involvement of the private sector, citing the challenge that national budgets face globally, declaring that governmental finances alone cannot address this transition.
Having served as secretary of state under the Obama administration from 2013 to 2017, Kerry is well-versed in the intricate dynamics of the Middle East. In 2014, he was on the cusp of brokering a deal between Israeli prime minister Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority president Abbas involving land exchanges and the repatriation of a significant majority of Israeli settlers. However, this was ultimately turned down by Netanyahu.
Kerry recognises the significant shift in relation brought about by the October 7th attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas. He notes that these turn of events called for retribution, and respects Israel’s state of distress due to these incidents and the several confrontations that followed. He believes the process towards resolution will require time and subtle shifts in the approach.
Citing his experience negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities, Kerry underscores the effectiveness of diplomacy and deal-making. He highlights the necessity of situational leadership availability on both sides, without pointing fingers at anyone. A universally supported peace process, he proposes, should engage Arab countries substantively.
Kerry suggests that creating conditions conducive to peaceful negotiations entails neutralising threats from Iran and addressing bombings by Hizbullah, a militant group from Lebanon. This, he believes, would pave the way towards discerning a constructive path forward.
Former President Obama was known to critique Kerry for his excessive optimism. Kerry, on a mission for climate work, claims he can’t afford to despair. He often finds himself reflecting on the poignant words of John F Kennedy, with whom he shares the experience of representing Massachusetts in the US senate: “Our deeds should verily be a reflection of God’s work.”
He believes this situation, being human-induced, requires urgent action. According to him, we need to propel everyone into a higher level of action. He is encouraged by the movement of new technology and finance in the right direction.
Kerry continues to dwell on the current global state. He describes the present moment as a critical point of reality confrontation, one that doesn’t get more monumental in life. According to him, for a habitable future for our children and grandchildren, we must expedite our actions – fulfilling the promises we’ve made.