In the wake of recent European elections, the political landscape was most profoundly shaken in France. In response to a rise in popularity for the far-right, above his own centrist alliance, President Emmanuel Macron decided to call an unexpected parliamentary election. The triumph of the National Rally, a far right, anti-immigrant party, was indisputable. The party, led by Marine Le Pen, is poised to claim 30 seats, as exit polls suggest it won 30% of the vote, double that of Macron’s centrist alliance, which is expected to lose a number of seats.
In an audacious political manoeuvre, Macron answered this significant loss by escalating the situation and disbanding parliament, choosing to confront the far right in national parliamentary elections. Intriguingly, while exit polls suggested that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would emerge as Germany’s second-largest party with 16.5% of votes, preliminary results put them on equal footing with the centre-left.
The Christian Democratic Union led the German vote with 30%, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party found itself tied with AfD, as initial results showed both winning roughly 14% of the vote. The Green Party in Germany, a traditional stronghold for the party, experienced a significant loss of seats, falling from 25 to approximately 17 MEPs.
In Belgium, the far-right Vlaams Belang party underperformed, having initially predicted a 25% vote share in the northern Flanders region where it competes. Early results from the European elections indicate that it managed to secure only 14% of the vote.
After a disappointing outcome in the European, federal, and regional elections for his liberal party, Belgian federal prime minister Alexander De Croo declared that he would bear full responsibility, becoming another potential casualty of the elections. Although the far-right surge may not have been as extensive as some polls suggested, the hard-right faction of the European Parliament still realised significant progress.
In the recent political sphere, France, Austria, Hungary, and Italy have witnessed ultra conservative and nationalist parties emerge victorious in the polls, with similar results echoed in Spain, Slovakia, Germany and additional countries. Preliminary results gathered from exit polls or statistics from 23 out of the 27 EU nations suggest an increase in representation for the hard and far right parties in parliament, rising from 130 seats to 160.
A key race took place in Hungary, featuring Peter Magyar, a former pro-government figure turned opposition representative, going against Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, a populist group. Magyar, inciting large-scale anti-government demonstrations in Budapest, has risen as the first significant challenge to Orban in recent years. Orban’s party’s support fell to 43%, which likely indicates a loss of two out of their prior 12 seats. Conversely, Magyar’s Tisza, anticipated to align with the EPP, secured 30% of the vote.
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party led the vote, securing just over a quarter and narrowly surpassing the centrist Austrian People’s Party and the Social Democratic Party of Austria.
Spanish elections experienced major victory for the centrist People’s Party, gathering 22 seats according to preliminary results. This was two seats ahead of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Workers’ Party. The far-right group Vox rose to a third-place finish with six seats, an increase from their previous tally of MEPs.
Over in Italy, the ultra conservative Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) led by Giorgia Meloni claimed victory, as per exit polls. With an estimated 27% vote share, the party is predicted to more than double its current seats in parliament to approximately 23. This rise came at the expense of her coalition ally, Matteo Salvini’s far-right League, which led the polls five years prior. Initial exit polls suggest the League will lose roughly two-thirds of its 23 seats.
Lastly, exit polls identified a narrow victory for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Coalition (EPP) over the hard-right, conservative Law and Justice party. This comes following the party’s removal from power post general elections last year by Tusk’s pro-EU alliance.
In Slovakia, the Progressive Slovakia party emerged as the winner in an election overshadowed by an assassination attempt on the prime minister Robert Fico. The party secured 27 percent of the total votes equating to approximately six seats. The populist Smer party, under Fico’s leadership, came in second with 24 percent, while the far-right Republika party ranked third.
In other European nations, early results were varied. In Denmark, the Green Left outperformed the ruling Social Democrats. Meanwhile, in Romania, the Social Democratic Party bagged 13 out of 33 available seats with 53 percent of the total votes, with the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians trailing at 15 percent.
Greece’s electoral victory went to the centre-right New Democracy, followed by the left-wing party Syriza, while the far-right Greek Solution took the fourth spot. The Finnish elections were dominated by the liberal National Coalition Party. In contrast, the conservative party Isamaa was the favourite in Estonia and Croatia’s centre-right Croatian Democratic Union gained the highest votes.